Central Banks In Wonderland…

In a mega week for Central Bank news, after the seminal but small rise from the Bank of Japan into positive territory for the first time in eight years, the all options on the table no change from the RBA, the expected hold from the Bank of England, and the surprise 0.25% cut from the Swiss National Bank, the first such reduction for one of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies since the pandemic abated, we got the fully Monty from the FED, with another no change decision.

The recent poor inflation numbers have only nudged the governors a little in the hawkish direction; it will take more of a pickup in prices to jolt enough members away from three cuts this year, or perhaps less…

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Card Fraud Rises Across Australia To $2.2bn

In the most recent incident of card fraud: the gross amount withdrawn or used for all incidents was $2.2 billion while the net loss after any reimbursements paid for all incidents was $476 million. The median amount withdrawn or used per incident was $200, A further 514,300 (2.5 per cent) experienced some kind of scam, and just under 200,000 (1.0 per cent) were victims of identity theft.

The proliferation of the digital world has opened the door for more scans, so we need to be careful with the information we share, the links we click, and monitor statements to look for fraudulent transactions. This is another area where financial education needs to be enhanced, in school and beyond, as many people are too easily caught. Its important to be digitally smart. Maybe cash is safer and easier to manage. Worth thinking about in the context of the current drive to removed cash all together.

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More coherence from our property insider as we continue to debunk some of the property myths, and focus in on the data.

This week, we touch on official and unofficial scams…

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The Market’s Uncertainty Principle…

This is our latest weekly market update.

Formulated by the German physicist and Nobel laureate Werner Heisenberg in 1927, the uncertainty principle states that we cannot know both the position and speed of a particle, such as a photon or electron, with perfect accuracy; the more we nail down the particle’s position, the less we know about its speed and vice versa.

I think the same can be said of the markets, as light is dawning that its hard to pin down the true vectors of inflation, and so market value as bonds yields are tending to rise, despite the expectation of rate cuts from Central Bankers soon. As a result, the US$ and US markets, alongside Japan seem more in favour than Europe, while gold and crypto might be risk shelters, or not.

But overall, the past week was an object lesson in uncertainty, as emerging data questioned analysts’ assumptions as we saw weekly declines that snaped seven straight weekly gains, while the dollar rose and was on track for its strongest week since mid-January, as U.S. inflation data has diluted hopes for interest rate cuts. Plus, we had the triple Witching, which always adds uncertainty.

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Only A People’s Bank Will Tame The Savage Beast: With Robbie Barwick

Robbie Barwick and I parse the latest from the Regional Banking Inquiry. The Senators are on the scent now, and Bankwest got a right pasting…

Here’s the press release this is from:

https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/bankwest-betrayal-west-aussies-test-government

Here’s the details. What you can do: Call and email WA Labor MPs to demand they stand up to BankWest and CBA and tell their boss Anthony Albanese to re-establish a People’s Bank:

Member for Tangney Sam Lim Ph: (08) 9354 9633 Email: Sam.Lim.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Hasluck Tania Lawrence Ph: (08) 6245 3340 Email: Tania.Lawrence.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Pearce Tracey Roberts Ph: (08) 6500 6499 Email: Tracey.Roberts.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Swan Zaneta Mascarenhas Ph: (08) 9355 0099 Email: Zaneta.Mascarenhas.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Cowan Dr Anne Aly Ph: (08) 9409 4517 Email: Anne.Aly.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Burt Matt Keogh Ph: (08) 9390 0180 Email: Matt.Keogh.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Perth Patrick Gorman Ph: (08) 9272 3411 Email: Patrick.Gorman.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Brand Madeleine King Ph: (08) 9527 9377 Email: Madeleine.King.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Fremantle Josh Wilson Ph: (08) 9335 8555 Email: Josh.Wilson.MP@aph.gov.au

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“Deaf” Bankers Called To Account!

The Commonwealth Bank subsidiary Bankwest, the 130-year-old former Bank of Western Australia bank announced last Wednesday that it was moving to become a digital-only bank and would close 45 locations in the state. The 45 Bankwest branches that have been earmarked for closure will close their doors by October this year. There are 28 locations in Perth and 17 in regional WA. A further 15 branches will be rebranded under the Commonwealth Bank banner and are expected to finish their transformation by the end of the year.

Yes, this is the same CBA whose CEO Mat Comyn on 20th September 2023 in a statement to the Senate Inquiry into regional branch closures promised not to close more branches until at least 2026, even though they specifically excluded Bankwest from their statement, while saying “we recognise the unique and important contribution that regional Australia makes to our country”. “Our decision to pause regional branch closures is also predicated on customers and communities valuing our decision to stay”.

Committee member Senator Richard Colbeck said the Senate committee has been hearing plenty of people raising concerns about the vital banking services being lost.

“Every week in our hearings we hear from local communities how important these essential services are and how their communities are affected, yet those who are given a license to provide those services, the so-called service sector, continuously ignore those pleas and withdraw services – it is as though their ears were painted on,” he said.

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A Question Of Democracy!

This week the Senate held hearings into the proposed changes to the way the RBA works. The original review was led by three Technocrats included a recommendation to remove the overrule power. This power specifically, section 11 of the Reserve Bank Act 1959 enables the federal treasurer to “overrule” an action taken by the Reserve Bank in extreme situations, via a clear and determined process, and even though no Australian government had used it in the more than 60 years it is important. It’s supposed to be a democratic fail-safe.

The Technocrats recommended the overrule power should be removed from the act. Their reasoning was that there was a risk that the federal treasurer, and by extension the federal government, might abuse that power. But what if the RBA abuses their power? The proposed change was not supported by the bulk of those who appeared in the Senate hearings, so today we look at the evidence provided.

At the heart of the issue is this. How accountable should the RBA be? And if there is no democratic override from the section 11 power, what happens if the Economists at the RBA set monetary policy in a way that badly impacts ordinary people, bearing in mind that another recommendation was to strike safeguarding the “welfare of all Australians” from their objectives. The focus will be on inflation and employment, only.

Central bankers are not infallible, sometimes makes mistakes, and frankly are already not accountable for their decisions, right or wrong. It’s a question of democracy.

So standing back, it seems it was the Technocrats and Economists who wanted to remove the section 11 power, but those with real lived experience, from both the Central Bank, and Government, as well as many respected observers, all agree.

Democracy would be sacrificed, and the Central Bank would be even less accountable if the power was removed. In other words, it is a question of democracy. And more broadly the idea of unelected Central Banks, being able to impose monetary policy decisions without question should terrify us all.

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Are Stocks At A Precarious Pinnacle?

This is our weekly market update, starting with the US, Europe, Asia and Australia, as well as Oil and Crypto.

The S&P 500 soared to fresh highs on Friday, but fewer stocks have been participating in the rally, stirring worries that recent gains could reverse if the market’s leaders stumble.

We are talking market breadth, or the number of stocks taking part in a broader index’s rise. A high breadth is often viewed as a healthy sign by investors as it shows gains are less dependent on a small cluster of names.

The reverse, a narrowing, on the other hand is a warning. And in fact, the Magnificent Seven have accounted for nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s gain this year, according to Dow Jones Indices.

The problem is the narrow group of stocks powering the market could make it more vulnerable to swift declines if an earnings disappointment or other issue hits its biggest stocks. While most of the megacaps have powered higher this year, shares of Tesla have fallen 22%, the third-worst performer in the S&P 500, demonstrating how quickly the market’s superstars can fall out of favor.

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The RBA Says Inflation Ain’t Beat Yet!

We discuss the latest from the RBA, via the new press conference and the Statement On Monetary Policy.

In short, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock says she is yet to be convinced inflation is on a sustainable path back to target and further interest rate rises could not be ruled out as the bank seeks to curb price rises stoking the nation’s cost-of-living crisis.

“Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time of excess demand, and while the labour market remains tight,” the board statement said.

This translates into higher rates for longer, which was not what the market wanted to hear!

Do not expect a rate cut soon. Plan accordingly.

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