Financial Markets – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Markets Rethink Rate Cuts As Central Bank Hawks Jawbone!

It’s become a bit of a ritual, as members of various committees linked to Central Bank interest rate decisions speak in the open spaces between policy meetings. This week, Washington has been the centre of gravity thanks to the IMF conferences.

Markets are hypersensitive at the moment, having been baying for rate cuts all year, and positioning accordingly, despite the data is pointing elsewhere. But now, Money managers and strategists on Wall Street have been forced to rethink their assumptions over the past two weeks in response to strong economic data and remarks by Fed officials.

For example, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that there’s no rush to lower interest rates and economic data will determine the timing.

And Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaking at an Atlantic Council event on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s meeting in Washington, said the UK faces difficult trade-offs over whether to cut interest rates because underlying inflation remains high and growth is weak.

But Greene said rate cuts were not imminent and the combination of high inflation and weak growth means “we are sort of in trade-off territory.”

In Australia, after the latest jobs data rate cut expectations are also being pushed out. Andrew Lilley the chief Rate Strategist at Barren joey said “There’s no impetus for the RBA to cut rates as inflation is outside of the 2 per cent to 3 percent band. The RBA will be very comfortable to sit on hold.

But even if rates go no higher, the RBA says total scheduled household mortgage payments (comprising both interest and scheduled principal payments) have increased to around 10 per cent of household disposable income as of December 2023, exceeding the estimated previous historical peak in 2008. These scheduled mortgage payments are expected to increase further to reach around 10½ per cent of household disposable income by end-2024 as more fixed-rate loans expire and reprice at higher interest rates.

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The Real Costs Of Migration!

In an increasingly globalized workforce — which intensified in the wake of Covid-19 as nations looked to fill acute worker shortages — New Zealand is a desirable destination. It was ranked the most attractive nation in the OECD for skilled migrants, according to a 2023 report by the Paris-based organization, which rated the country highly in categories such future prospects, family environment and inclusiveness.

But the volume of arrivals is now raising concerns about pressure on infrastructure, rising house prices and the ability of the economy to meet the extra demand for goods and services. That could in turn fan inflation, compounding the strains.

“Very strong population pressures will continue to stress the economy,” said Kelly Eckhold, chief New Zealand economist at Westpac in Auckland.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has picked up on the trend, citing the impacts of high immigration on house prices and rents. That may see it hold its benchmark rate at 5.5% until the end of this year or into 2025, even if global peers begin to lower theirs, though even that is less certain now.

And as we look are Ireland, the UK and Australia, its the same story. High migration lifts housing costs and drives inflation. Time for politicians to flex their strategies, as New Zealand and Canada have already done!

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The Sticky Inflation Problem Will Bite Hard!

US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has confirmed fears that interest rate cuts in the US would be later rather than sooner as inflation remains stubbornly high. If that price pressure persists, the Fed can keep rates steady for “as long as needed,” Powell said. This came after US retail sales figures for March came in much stronger than expected, stoking speculation rates would stay higher for longer.

This is a theme reinforced by the IMF, who published a report, while data form the UK and New Zealand also reconfirmed the stickier story.

The risks to markets and households are rising.

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The Week The World Changed…

This week will I think mark a critical turning point across markets, as the higher for longer mantra finally took root on sticky inflation fears, geo-political tensions flared and the first flush of 1Q US results highlighted pressures on earnings ahead. All this drove a flight to the safest corners of the market such as bonds and the dollar while equities fell. Oil rallied but Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – spiked to levels last seen in October with a surge of 16 per cent.

It’s hard to unpick the prime reasons for the falls, but US Equities had their worst day since January. The report that Israel was bracing for an attack by Iran on government targets certainly did not help. US President Joe Biden said he expects Iran will attack Israel sooner rather than later – and his message to Iran is “don’t” do it. A direct confrontation between Israel and Iran would mean a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict and would lead to a significant rise in oil prices, according to Commerzbank.
Escalating geopolitical tensions, also including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, have spurred bullish activity in the oil options market. There’s been elevated buying of call options – which profit when prices rise – in recent days, with implied volatility jumping.

Also, Investors have pushed back their expectations for the start of the Fed’s easing cycle as March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins reiterated she sees no urgency to cut rates in the near term, given elevated inflation and the resilience of the labor market. Her Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee repeated that housing inflation will need to come down in order for overall prices to cool to the central bank’s target.

Meantime banks’ results offered the latest window into how the US economy is faring amid an interest-rate trajectory muddied by persistent inflation as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo both reported net interest income that missed estimates amid increasing funding costs. Citigroup’s profit topped forecasts as corporations tapped markets for financing and consumers leaned on credit cards – signs that a prolonged period of elevated interest rates will benefit large lenders.

“Many economic indicators continue to be favourable. However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces,” JPMorgan’s chief executive Jamie Dimon said. He cited the wars, growing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflationary pressures and the effects of quantitative tightening.

And the latest economic data did little to alter the reduced risk. The Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 in April from 79.4 a month earlier, missing forecasts of 79.0 and the data also showed that the 1-year inflation expectations and 5-year expectations rose to 3.1% and 3% respectively, piling on worries about higher for longer interest rates.

So all up, MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe was last down 1.2%, its biggest one-day drop in about six months, dragged down by U.S. performance. Wall Street’s main indexes all slumped well over 1% with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day drop since Jan. 31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%, to 37,983.24, the S&P 500 lost 1.46%, to 5,123.41 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.62%, to 16,175.09.

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Could The Bumps In The Road Turn To Potholes And Rate Rises Ahead?

This is our latest weekly market update.

Last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell retained a cautious stance towards future rate cuts in a speech to the Stanford Graduate School of Business. “Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected,” he said, suggesting that the U.S. central bank will continue to study more data before starting a rate-cutting cycle.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a known hawk, said rates should likely not be reduced until the fourth quarter of this year, with only one cut likely in 2024. “We’ve seen inflation kind of become much and more bumpy,” Bostic said. “If the economy evolves as I expect, and that’s going to be seeing continued robustness in GDP and employment, and a slow decline in inflation over the course of the year, I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter.” But on Thursday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said rate cuts might not be required this year.

Then we got data on Friday showing US payrolls rose in March by the most in nearly a year and the unemployment rate dropped, pointing to a strong labor market that’s powering the economy. Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, with more people joining the workforce and able to find a job as participation rose.

Some are now seriously asking whether rates are high enough to quash inflation. A rate hike would really change the market dynamics. That said, Alice In Wonderland like, many analysts still seem to be wired into a rate cut soon.

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Can You Trust Your Bank In A Crisis?

Banking is a game of confidence, in that if fears of a potential bank collapse arise, then naturally people who hold money at that institution will try to grab their cash, and run. The Global Financial Crisis, where many banks were saved by the use of public funds.

But this means taxpayers are on the hook, and so post the GFC, there were attempts to develop alternatives which would transfer risks from the tax-payers to other parties, including shareholders bond holders and even depositors of an affected bank. The so called bank resolution – or living will – includes the deposit bail-in regimes which were proposed (initially by merchant bankers by the way) and adopted by the G20 to allow deposits held at banks to be grabbed and converted to equity. This happened of course in Greece a few years later.

In the IMF Global Stability Report from October 2023, there was a section which highlighted that the March 2023 bank runs in Switzerland and the United States were unusually large and fast with their speed and size facilitated by rapid online deposit withdrawals and the rapid spread of worries among important groups of depositors via social media and other digital channels.

I am often asked if bail-in is a real risk to savers, and my reply remains the same. It’s a theoretical risk for sure, thanks to the likes of the IMF and others, but practically, its unlikely to be activated because the collateral damage would be enormous. But understand that those bankers who dreamed up bail-in and the QANGO’s who are pushing it, are still pushing Governments to give the financial regulators ever more power, never mind democracy. Its a cautionary tale of who is actually calling the shots, and the risks to democracy are real.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen for our regular monthly look at what is going on across the markets, as many are reaching new highs, even as company returns are in question, and inflation is looking more sticky. Is a stock correction likely, and what does all this means for bonds and other asset classes?

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The FED Speaks After The Bell, As Inflation Holds Higher!

This is our latest weekly market update.

In a foreshortened trading week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, notching its best first-quarter performance since 2009 supported by the AI boom and as the rally broadened out beyond tech amid optimism on rate cuts coming soon and data signaling a soft landing for the US economy remains within in reach. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell very slightly. The index was up over 7% for the first quarter.

The S&P 500 benchmark index closed up 0.1 per cent to 5254.35; having touched an intraday high of 5264.85 midafternoon. The Dow advanced 0.1 per cent, losing early momentum for a run at 40,000. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 per cent.

But additional data including the core PCE inflation metric, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure came out on Holiday Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the biggest back-to-back gain in a year. Fourth-quarter core PCE inflation was revised slightly lower. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

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Uncomfortable Highs And Wonky Data Says Brace, Brace, Brace…

In this week’s market update as normal, we will start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia, and cover the key points in Oil, Gold and Crypto. My aim is to try to integrate the main themes of the week, and point forward to what may happen next.

There were a few main themes, first some key markets are touching all-time highs even if on Friday many markets took a breather, driven by profit-taking after a week of record-setting advances which were fuelled by a series of dovish central bank signals. The US dollar struggled to extend a gain as U.S. yields ticked lower.

But Central banks are still watching for greater certainty on inflation trends, and there is building speculation that the neural interest rate is higher than expected. In addition, the fuzziness in the data flows continues – a problem for central bankers who want to be data dependent, perhaps too data dependent.

The U.S. central bank sharply upgraded its outlook for growth in 2024, and Thursday’s data suggested the U.S. economy remained on solid footing after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February. This suggests the Fed doesn’t need to be in any hurry to cut rates going forward.

Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.

Its worth noting that overall, the ASX 200, excluding resources, currently trades at 18.5 times forward earnings, which is 40 per cent above its long-run average of 13.5 times, but 12 per cent above the previous peak in May 2007, just before the global financial crisis. And no, this is not just about Commonwealth Bank being at record highs. The median stock on the ASX is also trading at a P/E multiple well above its long-term average.

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