This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness.
We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play in? What will happen to migration? And can we learn from what is happening in New Zealand?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.
The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.
And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 3.0%, following a 2.7% January decrease. Specifically, approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 24.9 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a fall in the number of approved large apartment projects. In contrast, approvals for private houses rose 10.7 per cent in February.
This continues to confirm the massive gap between the Government aspiration of 1.2 million new homes over the next 5 years. On a straight-line basis, this translates to a target of 240,000 each year – which by the way is still way under the number needed to house the surging migrants and fill existing shortfalls.
So why not tackle the root cause issue here, too high migration? Entrepreneur Dick Smith fears today’s young people will have no savings and be forced to live in Chinese-style high-rise apartments unless immigration is urgently slashed, according to an article in the Daily Mail.
The veteran businessman and philanthropist says they need to understand the connection between a surging population and climate change. The entrepreneur, who turned 80 last month, fears homes with a backyard in Australia’s capital cities will no longer exist by 2050.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited.
Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed.
Worse, the structural issues can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were policy errors – when will they come clean?
Tarric’s charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-april-2024 if you want to follow along.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Domain has released its Rental Report for March, which delivered more bad news for tenants, on top of the data I released recently which showed three quarters of those renting already have cash-flow issues. Younger families and first-generation Australians are being hit really hard, but as I discussed in my live show, other household categories are also being caught in the rental squeeze. And despite the rise in rents, some investors are selling due to poor net returns.
With net overseas migration forecast to remain historically high, albeit lower than last year, Australia’s rental crisis will continue, even if vacancy rates and rental inflation ease a little.
As a result, more Australians will be plunged into rental stress, group housing, or homelessness.
The solution is to cut net overseas migration hard to a level well below the nation’s capacity to build homes and infrastructure.
The other factor no one is talking about is that renters under extreme pressure are being coerced into buying property, even if its poor quality or in the wrong area, just to exit the rental sector and try to get some control. With borrowing power down about 40-50%, these households are leveraging up, as see by the larger loan balances against income. But this could be an issue of jumping from the frying pan into the fire!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
More insights from our property insider, as we look at the issue of supply and migration, plus the impact of the recent flooding rains, and also the latest on listings and prices.
How broken in the market at the moment, and how are agents playing psychological games with prospective purchasers?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
In the second part of our series on March 2024 results from our surveys, we deploy our mapping tools to display the hot spots across the country for mortgage, rental and investor stress, as well as defaults and net rental yields.
For a description of our approach, watch our earlier show here: So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch? https://youtu.be/xvE-jPsGQUk
On Tuesday at 8pm Sydney we will deep dive on the post code level analysis. DFA Live Q&A: A Deep Dive On Post Codes Feeling The Pinch https://youtube.com/live/GmSKvYYQI1k
http://www.martinnorth.com/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Wherever you look, the news is not good for those wishing to see housing affordability relief.
First demand for rentals continues to be powered by the overseas influx. New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).
Or put it another way, the number of student visa holders in Australia is running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak, while the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak.
Then we can turn to the question of new housing supply. I have covered before the fact that the country is littered with half-completed construction projects, many of which are competing for labour and resources with the large number of government and commercial projects also currently running. This crowded out home builders as the major projects sucked in labour and drove up its cost.
But we also continue to see more building firms going under. In the light of this, perhaps we should not be surprised that the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest property news, and also discuss dummy bidding, and how changes in China are impacting property here.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
