HIA New Home Sales signal downturn ahead

The HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, shows that total new home sales fell for a second consecutive month in May 2016, said the Housing Industry Association.

“There is nothing alarming to a reversal in the trend for New Home Sales,” commented HIA Chief Economist, Dr Harley Dale. “There is a cyclical downturn ahead for new residential construction activity, as new home sales signal, but the early pull-back will be mild by historical standards.” “We remain of the view that a decline in new dwelling commencements will gather momentum in 2016/17 and 2017/18, following four years of growth which has delivered enormous benefits to the broader Australian economy.”

“This economic benefit delivered by new home construction in recent years is unprecedented,” said Harley Dale. “It creates a platform for the Federal government to provide leadership on the key issues of new housing supply, affordability and home ownership, which will in turn benefit Australia’s economic growth and future standard of living.”

Total seasonally-adjusted new home sales declined by 4.4 per cent in May 2016 following a 4.7 per cent fall in April 2016. The sale of detached houses fell by 6.7 per cent in the month. ‘Multi-unit’ sales recorded a bounce of 4.9 per cent and are again trending higher, albeit to a smaller extent compared to the equivalent building approvals profile.

In the month of May 2016 detached house sales declined in three of the five mainland states: New South Wales (-11.5 per cent); Victoria (-8.2 per cent); and Queensland (-11.0 per cent). Detached house sales increased in South Australia (+3.8 per cent) and in Western Australia (+5.4 per cent).

HIA-June-2016

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

Leave a Reply