Poorer Australians Bearing the Brunt of Rising Housing Costs

From The Conversation.

Rising housing costs are hurting low-income Australians the most. Those at the bottom end of the income spectrum are much less likely to own their own home than in the past, are often spending more of their income on rent, and are more likely to be living a long way from where most jobs are being created.

Low-income households have always had lower home ownership rates than wealthier households, but the gap has widened in the past decade. The dream of owning a home is fast slipping away for most younger, poorer Australians.

As you can see in the following chart, in 1981 home ownership rates were pretty similar among 25-34 year olds no matter what their income. Since then, home ownership rates for the poorest 20% have fallen from 63% to 23%.

Home ownership rates also declined more for poorer households among older age groups. Home ownership now depends on income much more than in the past.

Lower home ownership rates mean more low-income households are renting, and for longer. But renting is relatively unattractive for many families. It is generally much less secure and many tenants are restrained from making their house into a home.

For poorer Australians who do manage to purchase a home, many will buy on the edges of the major cities where housing is cheaper. But because jobs are becoming more concentrated in our city centres, people living on the fringe have access to fewer jobs and face longer commutes, damaging their family and social life.

Prices for low-cost housing have increased the fastest

The next chart shows that the price for cheaper homes has grown much faster than for more expensive homes over the past decade. This has made it much harder for low-income earners to buy a home.

If we group the housing market into ten categories (deciles), we can see the price of a home in the lowest (first and second) deciles more than doubled between 2003-04 and 2015-16. By contrast, the price of a home in the fifth, sixth and seventh deciles only increased by about 70%.

Tax incentives for investors may explain why the price of low-value homes increased faster. Negative gearing remains a popular investment strategy; about 1.3 million landlords reported collective losses of A$11 billion in 2014-15.

Many investors prefer low-value properties because they pay less land tax as a proportion of the investment. For example, an investor who buys a Sydney property on land worth A$550,000 pays no land tax, whereas the same investor would pay about A$9,000 each year on a property on land worth A$1.1 million.

Rising housing costs also hurt low-income renters

As this last chart shows, more low-income households (the bottom 40% of income earners) are spending more than 30% of their income on rent (often referred to as “rental stress”), particularly in our capital cities. In comparison, only about 20% of middle-income households who rent are spending more than 30% of their income on rent.

Why are more low-income renters under rental stress?

First, Commonwealth Rent Assistance, which provides financial support to low-income renters, is indexed to the consumer price index and so it fell behind private market rents which rose roughly in line with wages.

Secondly, rents for cheaper dwellings have grown slightly faster than rents for more expensive dwellings. Finally, the stock of social housing – currently around 400,000 dwellings – has barely grown in 20 years, while the population has increased by 33%.

As a result, many low-income earners who would once have been in social housing are now in the private rental market.

What can be done about it?

Increasing the social housing stock would improve affordability for low-income earners. But the public subsidies required to make a real difference would be very large – roughly A$12 billion a year – to return the affordable housing stock to its historical share of all housing.

In addition, the existing social housing stock is not well managed. Homes are often not allocated to people who most need them, and quality of housing is often poor. Increased financial assistance by boosting Commonwealth Rent Assistance may be a better way to help low-income renters meet their housing costs

Boosting Rent Assistance for aged pensioners by A$500 a year, and A$500 a year for working-age welfare recipients would cost A$250 million and A$450 million a year respectively.

Commonwealth and state governments should also act to improve housing affordability more generally. This will require policies affecting both demand and supply.

Reducing demand – such as by cutting the capital gains tax discount and abolishing negative gearing – would reduce prices a little. But in the long term, boosting the supply of housing will have the biggest impact on affordability. To achieve this, state governments need to change planning rules to allow more housing to be built in inner and middle-ring suburbs.

Unless governments tackle the housing affordability crisis, the poorest Australians will fall further behind.

Authors: John Daley, Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute;
Brendan Coates, Fellow, Grattan Institute; Trent Wiltshire, Associate, Grattan Institute

How the blockchain will transform housing markets

From The Conversation.

An emerging technology, blockchain, could transform the way we buy and sell real estate by doing away with the hidden costs and inefficiencies of our housing markets.

Blockchain is an online ledger that records transactions. It’s capable of recording the movement of any kind of asset from one owner to the next.

It’s public and isn’t owned by any one corporation, there are no charges to record transactions. Its openness ensures the integrity of transactions and ownership, as everyone involved has a stake in keeping it honest.

This means there are fewer intermediaries; less middle-men who increase the costs and time to complete a transaction.

There are risks associated with the system as it’s only as strong as the code that supports it, which has come under attack in the past. Despite this, examples from overseas show it is possible to apply this technology successfully to our housing market.

Problems in how the property market is run

For buyers able to find the right property, secure a mortgage and save a deposit, they must also pay for a range of so-called “hidden costs”. These are additional payments associated with the transaction over the cost of the home itself. Many legal and title-related costs would become near-obsolete in a blockchain system.

The combined costs of title registration, title insurance, and legal fees associated with register the property transfer approach A$1,000 on the average Australian house. Costs continue to rise as the prudent buyer undertakes further due diligence, through building inspection documentation, previous sales records and so forth.

On top of the financial cost, it then typically takes over a month to settle a real estate transaction in Australia. The blockchain system can speed things up, as currently tedious checks undertaken by hand, move to an automated system overseen and approved by the relevant stakeholders.

There is also the risk that land titles offices with a single database simply get things wrong too. In 2016 it was reported that 300 incorrect certificates had been issued in NSW, with 140 of those being recent property buyers affected by government plans for major motorways in Sydney’s west.

There are now concerns that the system’s quality could be compromised in several states, including NSW and South Australia, as land titles offices become privatised.

A blockchain real estate market

If blockchain were applied to the property market in Australia, every property would be encoded with a unique identifier. Property IDs already exist in most land registry systems, so these would need to be migrated to a blockchain.

Next, the blockchain ecosystem then needs to have defined who the people behind the transaction are, those stakeholders that include the owner, lender, and government.

Transactions of property are conducted via “smart contracts” – digital rules in the blockchain that process the agreement and any specified conditions. Buying and selling could still take place via agents, or the smart contract can be advanced to incorporate the sale rules and make this decision automatically. The blockchain for each property grows as transactions are added to the ledger.

A housing market without agents, conveyancers and a land-titles office may seem decades away, but a handful of countries have already piloted blockchain land registration system.

In Australia, our current land titles system is among the world’s best, but it is not infallible. A range of hidden taxes and transaction costs increase market inefficiencies.

And while the electronic system Property Exchange Australia or PEXA, has brought us to the point of a near paperless property market, it’s still an intermediary between the parties and the record of the transfer in the Torrens system – our current land title system.

The added advantage of a blockchain system is in eliminating risks, in particular the risk of records being accessed fraudulently and altered or deleted because it is a permanent and immutable record. This means that a huge amount of computing power would be required, probably along with some collusion, and the alteration is easily detected across the ledger. That’s not to say the blockchain system is perfect.

Blockchain’s advantage in restricting any changes to historical records becomes a disadvantage when incorrect or fraudulent entries are added. Digital currency managers, Ether and Bitfinex, learned this the hard way through cyber attacks.

Last year these attacks siphoned off over US$50 million in ether tokens from The DAO, the largest crowdfunded venture capital fund. This breach led to a controversial split of Ether into two separate active digital currencies.

Only months later, Hong Kong-based crytocurrency trading firm, Bitfinex, had the equivalent of US$68 million stolen by hackers in a security breach reminiscent of the hack that bought down Mt Gox in 2014. It is little comfort to cautious market regulators that the thieves behind these attacks can not spend it without revealing their identity on the blockchain.

These hacks demonstrate that blockchain systems are only as secure as the code which supports them. As a nascent technology, its cracks are detected only when they are exposed.

Where blockchain has worked before

Sweden became the first western country to explore the use of blockchain for real estate in July last year. At the time, the Swedish Land Registry partnered with blockchain startup ChromaWay to test how parties to a real estate transaction – the buyer, seller, lender, government – could track the deal’s progress on a blockchain.

Other countries at the forefront of blockchain for real estate include The Republic of Georgia, Honduras, and Brazil which announced a pilot program earlier this month. While this might seem like a disparate list, it’s in these countries where the long-term potential of a blockchain for real estate are most significant.

Systemic corruption and insecure database management in these countries, and many other emerging economies, is seen as a major constraint on growth and prosperity. Why would you invest in a house, or any other asset, if there is a distinct possibility that the record of your ownership could simply disappear?

With ever increasing demands for improvements to transaction efficiency and local real estate industry giants like CoreLogic appointing research teams dedicated to new technology applications, it might not be long before we see a real estate blockchain system in Australia.

Author: Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney

Negative gearing distorting Sydney housing market: Report

From Australian Broker.

Sydney’s housing affordability crisis is being artificially exacerbated by “lunacy” tax incentives, a new report has claimed.

According to the analysis by the UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre, up to 90,000 properties are sitting empty in some of Sydney’s most sought-after suburbs as investors chase capital gains over rental returns.

The analysis’ researchers, Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy, said this is thanks to the “perverse outcomes” of tax incentives such as negative gearing, Fairfax has reported.

“Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,” Randolph and Troy told Fairfax.

“This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.”

According to Fairfax, the 2011 census revealed that in Sydney’s “emptiest” neighbourhood of the CBD, Haymarket and The Rocks, one in seven dwellings was vacant.

Close behind were Manly-Fairlight, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, Darlinghurst and Neutral Bay-Kirribilli, which all had vacancy levels above 13%. These neighbourhoods, together with central Sydney, account for nearly 7,200 empty homes.

The UNSW analysis of the 90,000 unoccupied dwellings across metropolitan Sydney compared the number of empty homes in a suburb against the rate of return investors made by renting out a property.

It found that properties in neighbourhoods with lower rental yields and higher expected capital gains were more likely to be unoccupied.

Gordon-Killara on the north shore had the highest share of vacant apartments, with more than one in six unoccupied on Census night, according to Fairfax. By contrast, only one in 42 dwellings (2.4%) in Green Valley-Cecil Hills, in Sydney’s west, was unoccupied.

These results suggest property investors in some of Sydney’s most desirable areas have become indifferent to whether their investment property is rented or not. Instead, investors are chasing capital gains with rental losses offset by negative gearing and capital gains concessions.

According to Troy and Randolph, this calls into question Sydney’s housing supply and affordability problem.

“If you choose to accept that there is a housing shortage in Sydney, then the sheer scale and location of these figures strongly suggest that this is an artificially produced scarcity,” they said, according to Fairfax.

Home Lending Rotation Continued In September

The latest home finance data from the ABS confirm the trend that investor loans are on the slide, and being replaced by growth in owner occupied loans and refinancing. In September, trend,  owner occupied housing commitments rose 2.0% to $20.5 bn while investment housing commitments fell 1.9% to $12.9 bn. The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.7% in September whilst the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.3% the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.8%. The number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.1%.

The proportion of investor loans fell back to 48%, whereas a few months back it was well above 50%. Refinance of owner occupied loans continues to rise, to nearly 20% of all loans written, a level not seen since 2012. So the relative shift away from investment loans is confirmed, in response to regulatory intervention.

Home-Loan-Flows-ABS-Sept-2015In stock terms, the mix of investment loans – as reported in original terms, has fallen back to 38%, but is still way higher than when regulators officially started to worry about the systemic risks of investment loans above mid thirties.  we can expect to see further data revisions in coming months, as banks continue to reclassify loans.

Home-Lending-Stock-ABS-Sept-2015Turning to first time buyers, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 15.4% in September 2015 from 15.8% in August.  However, this does not tell the full story.

FTB-Home-Loans-ABS-Sept-2015Looking at DFA adjusted data, to take account of first time buyers going direct to the investment sector, we see a further fall in new FTB investor loans, down more than 2% in the month. The number of FTB loans for owner occupation rose however, by 6%, so the overall volume of loans is up. The average FTB loan was 2% larger this month.

FTB-DFA-Sept-2015  The strategies of the banks are clear, focus on owner occupied loans, and offer deep discounts to wrest refinanced loans from competitors, whilst using back-book repricing to fund it. At what point will the regulators step-up their surveillance of owner occupied lending? We think they should do so now.

 

 

Financial Stability Review Says Housing Risks Higher Than Thought

The RBA released their latest Financial Stability Review today. It is worth reading through the 66 pages, because there are a number of important themes, relating to housing. Underlying this though is a beat which could be interpreted as the RBA admitting they have misread the housing sector.

In summary, they recognise that underwriting standards were not as good as initially thought, the investment loan and interest only loan sectors carry potentially higher risks, and the changes to capital and regulatory standards will have a mitigating impact, over the medium term. That said, households remain well placed (despite the highest ever debt at lowest ever interest rates).

6tl-hhfinThey are however concerned about the impact of the current residential construction boom.

They also highlight risks from lending by banks to the commercial property sector, and the ongoing use of SMSF’s to invest in property.

There is also a section of the capital ratios for the banks, both under then IRB and standard approaches to capital ratios. Of particular note is for banks using the standard approach, they show how the presence of Lender Mortgage Insurance (LMI) and different LVR’s impact the capital weights. Despite the upcoming move from 17 to 25 basis points for banks under the advanced IRB approach, banks with the standard approach remain at a competitive disadvantage.

ABC Highlights Housing Risk On 7:30

ABC’s 7:30 did a segment on housing risks, and the implications should the bubble burst.  They discussed the risks if interest rates were to rise, against the context of high household debt. SATYAJIT DAS, FINANCIAL ANALYST said “Australians have been playing this Ponzi game of housing where I buy a house and the value goes up and what happens is then I make money by selling it to somebody else and the whole game depends on the buyer always being able to borrow ever larger sums of money and that all depends on incomes and employment, and that side of the economy, the real economy, is looking extremely weak”.

They also flagged the potential for the RBA to cut the cash rate, in response to banks lifting their mortgage rates.

 

 

 

New Home Sales Falter in May – HIA

The HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, recorded the first decline for 2015 in May. The four month winning streak came to a modest end in May 2015 with total seasonally adjusted new home sales falling by 2.3 per cent. The decline was driven by a 5.1 per cent dip in detached house sales, reflecting weaker monthly demand in four out of the five states surveyed. DFA observes that the rotation from houses to units continues to build momentum, in answer to the demand for investment property, where returns to builders are also higher.

The mature stage of the new home building cycle primarily reflects further momentum in the ‘multi-unit’ sector, together with persistence of healthy conditions in New South Wales and Victoria. New sales of multi-units increased by 7.6 per cent during the month to yet a new record level, with sales volumes up by 26.7 per cent over the three months to May. Meanwhile strength in detached houses sales is evident in NSW and Victoria, with growth in the May 2015 ‘quarter’ of 5.2 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

HIA-May-2015In the month of May 2015 detached house sales increased by 3.3 per cent in Queensland, but fell by 2.3 per cent in NSW, 9.9 per cent in Victoria, 5.2 per cent in South Australia, and 8.1 per cent in Western Australia. In the May 2015 quarter, detached house sales increased in NSW (+5.2 per cent) and Victoria (+6.2 per cent). Sales fell over the three month period in SA (-8.1 per cent), Queensland (-7.5 per cent), and WA (-1.3 per cent).

Perspectives on the Housing Debate

Last week amongst all the noise on housing there were some important segments from the ABC which made some significant contributions to the debate. These are worth viewing.

First Lateline interviewed the Grattan Institute CEO on the social and political impacts of housing policy, and also covered negative gearing.

Second The Business covered foreign investors, restrictions on investment lending and the implications for non-bank lenders who are not caught by the APRA “guidance”.

Third, a segment from Insiders on Sunday, dealing with both the economic arguments and the political backcloth.

Next a segment from Australia Wide which explores the tensions dealing with housing in a major growing city, Brisbane. No-one wants building near their backyard, so how to deal with population growth.

 

Banking: Australian Banks’ Moves to Curb Residential Investment Lending Are Credit-Positive – Moody’s

In a  brief note, Moody’s acknowledged that the bank’s recent moves to adjust their residential loan criteria could be positive for their credit ratings, but also underscored a number of potential risks in the Australian housing sector including elevated and rising house prices, declining mortgage affordability, and record levels of household indebtedness. As a result, they believe more will need to be done to tackle the risks in the portfolio.

Moody’s says the recent initiatives are credit positive since they reduce the banks’ exposure to a higher-risk loan segment. At the same time, it is likely that further additional steps will be required because the growing imbalances in the Australian housing market pose a longer-term challenge to the Australian banks’ credit profiles, over and above the immediate concerns relating to investment lending.

Therefore they expect the banks first to curtail their exposure to high LTV loans and investment lending further over the coming months; and second, they will gradually improve the quantity and quality of their capital through a combination of upward revisions to mortgage risk weights and capital increases. This is likely to happen over the next 18 months or so.