Tag: Retail Turnover

The ABS released their Retail Turnover stats for October 2018.  Still looks pretty sluggish. Perhaps Christmas will accelerate the spend. We will see! New South Wales reported a fall, well behind Victoria and Queensland.

They say:

• The trend estimate rose 0.2% in October 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in September 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in August 2018.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in October 2018. This follows a 0.1% rise in September 2018, and a rise of 0.3% in August 2018.
• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in October 2018 compared with October 2017.
• The following industries rose in trend terms in October 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2%). Household goods retailing (-0.1%), and Department Stores (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.
• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in October 2018: Victoria (0.4%), Queensland (0.5%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). Western Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0%). New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Northern Territory (-0.8%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.9 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in October 2018, a rise from 5.6 per cent in September 2018 and the highest level recorded in the series. In October 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.7 per cent to total retail.

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in August 2018, following a 0.3 percent rise in July 2018. Compared to August 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.4 per cent, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

In trend terms, Other retailing (0.6 per cent) led the rises. Rises were also seen in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent). Department stores fell  (-0.1 per cent), and Household goods retailing fell  (-0.2 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted, Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in August 2018, following a relatively unchanged estimate (0.0 per cent) in July 2018.

In trend terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.3%), Victoria (0.3%), South Australia (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), Tasmania (0.5%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%). Western Australia fell (0.1%), whilst there was a more significant fall in the Northern Territory (-0.5%).

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in August 2018, a rise from 5.5 per cent in July 2018. In August 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.6 per cent to total retail.

The ABS released the retail trade turnover figures today for July 2018. The noisy seasonally adjusted numbers returned no growth on last month (which had exceed expectations in June). This is what will be reported, I suspect and equates to 2.7% annually.

However, as usual we look beyond the seasonally adjusted series to the trend data, which provides a better longer term indication of what is happening. In fact on an annual basis retail is sitting at 3.1% for the past 12 months, still above both wages growth and inflation, at circa 2%. So we can conclude that households are still spending, but financial pressures are crimping their style. Savings are being raided, and credit extended.  But 3.1% is reasonably healthy, given the state of things.

The data is reported firstly by major category, with Household Goods sitting at 3.8% annually, Food Retailing at 2.7%, Departmental Stores at 2.5%, and Clothing & Footwear at 1.4%.

The state annual data, on the same basis highlights significant contrasts across the country, with Victoria leading the charge at a massive 5.4%, followed by Tasmania at 4.7%, the ACT at 4.2%, NSW 3.7%, South Australia 2.8%, Queensland 1.4% and Western Australia down 0.5%.

We often see a correlation between home price growth and retail, and as a result, we suspect Victoria will slide lower now, given the fact that in the past quarter values fell in VIC.

The mix of low income, and rising costs coupled with the latest home price falls suggests that retail will be struggling ahead, as shops continue to discount heavily to turn trade over. Indeed, the retail turnover data actually tells us very little in terms of margin and profit, and the data from our own SME surveys suggests that it is really tough for many across discretionary categories, while food costs are rising.

Later we will get a read on GDP, but it looks like household consumption will not be providing a significant leg-up to the next set of indicators.

Finally, Online retail turnover contributed 5.5 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in July 2018, a fall from 5.7 per cent in June 2018. In July 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.3 per cent to total retail.

The ABS says the trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in May 2018 following a rise (0.3 per cent) in April 2018. Compared to May 2017, the trend estimate rose 2.8 per cent, so still stronger than wages growth (as people raid savings and put more on credit cards).

Across the categories department stores rose 0.5% on the previous month, thanks to sales being brought forward from June, food retailing was up 0.4%, household goods and other retailing were 0.2% and clothing and footwear rose just 0.1%.

Across the states,  the northern territories rose 0.9, ACT 0.6%, Tasmania 0.5%, New South Wales 0.4%, Victoria 0.3%, Queensland and SOuth Australia 0.1% and there was no change in Western Australia.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in May 2018, a rise from 5.4 per cent in April 2018. In May 2017 online retail turnover contributed 3.9 per cent to total retail.

The ABS released the latest retail turnover data, which rose 0.3 per cent in April 2018 following a rise (0.3 per cent) in March 2018. Compared to April 2017 the trend estimate rose 2.6 per cent. The less reliable seasonally adjusted turnover rose 0.4 per cent in April 2018, seasonally adjusted, which follows a relatively unchanged result (0.0 per cent) in March 2018.

Across the categories,  food retailing was up 0.4%, household good up 4%, other retailing 0.2%, Cafes and takeaway food 0.1%, department stores down 0.1%, clothes and footwear down 0.2%.

Across the states, the trends were strongest in NT up 0.7%, ACT up 0.6%, NSW and VIC up 0.4%, TAS up 0.2%, QLD 0.1% and SA fell 0.1%.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.4 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in April 2018, a rise from 5.1 per cent in March 2018. In April 2017 online retail turnover contributed 3.4 per cent to total retail.

Further evidence of the stress on households as the ABS data on retail turnover showed no growth in March, in seasonally adjusted terms following a 0.6 per cent rise in February 2018.

Ben James, ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “While there was a rise in food retailing of 0.7 per cent in March 2018 all other industries fell – cafes, restaurants and takeaways (-0.8 per cent) led the falls, but other retailing (-0.6 per cent), household goods retailing (-0.3 per cent), department stores (-0.5 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.2 per cent) also fell.”

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.1 per cent), Queensland (-0.2 per cent), Western Australia (-0.1 per cent) and Tasmania (-0.3 per cent). Retail trade in Victoria (0.2 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.5 per cent), South Australia (0.2 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.1 per cent) rose.

Our preferred trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March 2018, following a rise (0.3 per cent) in February 2018. Compared to March 2017, the trend estimate rose 2.6 per cent.

By state, NSW rose 0.3%, VIC. 0.5%, QLD 0.1%, SA 0.1%, WA 0.00%, NT 0.3% and ACT 0.4%.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail turnover – up from 3.7 per cent a year ago – in original terms in March 2018.

In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover rose 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2018, following a rise of 0.8 per cent in the December quarter 2017. The rise in volumes was led by food (0.7 per cent), household goods (1.2 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessories (1.1 per cent).

The ABS release their Retail Turnover series for February 2018.

As normal we look at the trend series which smooths out the bumps.

The trend estimate rose 0.4% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2017.

In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in February 2018 compared with February 2017. This is faster than wages growth or inflation.

The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2018: Food retailing (0.3%), Household goods retailing (0.6%), Other retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4%). Department stores (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2018.

All the states and territories rose in trend terms in February 2018: Victoria (0.6%), New South Wales (0.3%), Queensland (0.3%), South Australia (0.3%), Western Australia (0.1%), Tasmania (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.1%), and the Northern Territory (0.2%).

The trends by state over time highlight the relative strength of Victoria, compared with the national average and several other states who are performing much less well, especially those in the mining heavy states.

Given the state of the housing market, we wonder if the slight improvement is sustainable, we  will see. We do know that households are raiding their savings to support their spending habits. This can only continue until savings are depleted as the  savings ratio falls further.

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in January 2018 following a rise (0.3 per cent) in December 2017. Compared to January 2017, the trend estimate rose 2.3 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

Retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in January 2018, seasonally adjusted. This follows a 0.5 per cent fall in December 2017.

“There were offsetting movements by industry with rises in other retailing (1.0 per cent), household goods retailing (0.1 per cent), and cafes, restaurants and takeaways (0.1 per cent) being offset by falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessories (-0.7 per cent) and department stores (-0.6 percent),” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys at the ABS, said. “Food retailing was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent).”

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Queensland (0.4 per cent), Victoria (0.3 per cent), Western Australia (0.3 per cent), and Tasmania (0.3 per cent). The Australian Capital Territory was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). New South Wales (-0.2 per cent), South Australia (-0.6 per cent), and the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms.

Online retail turnover contributed 4.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in January 2018. In January 2017, online retail turnover contributed 3.6 per cent to total retail.