Is The Consumer Going On Strike?

Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell in June, suggesting consumers are hunkering down in response to the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest-rate increases in 15 months.

Sales declined 0.8% from a month earlier, compared with estimates for a flat reading, and erased all of their gains in May, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Friday. The weakness was driven by department stores and clothing and footwear, the bureau said.

Trend estimates from July 2022 onwards show that underlying growth in retail spending slowed considerably towards the end of 2022, with only modest trend growth in recent months.

The result bolsters the case for the RBA to stand pat on Tuesday for a second-straight meeting after inflation data two days ago showed a cooling of prices. Money markets trimmed bets for a final rate hike this year and the policy-sensitive three-year government bond yield pared gains.

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Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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