Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

Inflation Is Not Vanquished Yet!

Significant news on inflation from the US, with core inflation higher than expected and above overall inflation, as gas and fuel prices slipped back, but services inflation remained firm, alongside rents. Sufficient to confirm a likely 25 basis point hike when then FED meets next.

And in Canada, the bank there left rates at 4.5% but was more bullish, talking about rates higher for longer.

Net, net, the idea that Central Banks will be cutting this year is all but laughable!

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

When Big Australia Busts Housing!

The current Government is driving migration to all time highs, and this will put more pressure on the already unbalanced housing market. Big Australia leads to pressure on infrastructure, and the need for more homes to be built, but of course it may well also put a floor on potential home price falls. As a result, it is likely this Government will be responsible for a further spiral down in housing affordability, and ever rising rents. Migration should be slowed.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Consumer Confidence Takes A Turn For The Better (Maybe!)

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidences report came in stronger this month, with a considerable change in future home price trajectory. That said, I suspect the change, connected with the RBA rate pause, may be not be sustained. We will see.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening International Property Rant!

In the first of our international series, we compare the UK and Australian markets, as listing decline and rental property is in crisis mode.

In addition we discuss the building company failures and collapsing buildings.

More once we get the broadband operating in the UK!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Keep Following John Adams And Martin North!

IOTP is likely to be relatively idle for the time being as Martin North relocates to the UK and John Adams continues his quest in a new way. That said, you can still follow us on our respective channels:

Walk The World (Martin) https://www.youtube.com/c/WalkTheWorldDFA @WalkTheWorldDFA
The Public Crusader (John) https://www.youtube.com/@thepubliccrusader/featured

Hopefully we will find ways to make joint shows, but meantime do not miss out following our work – and stay subscribed to IOTP for updates!

Thanks to all those who follow and support our work.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

The Weakest Growth Outlook In Decades….

The IMF says global growth is set to decline over the next few years, driven by higher interest rates and inflation; geopolitical instability and insular behaviour. So they call for action to address this.

However, on a finite planet, perpetual growth is impossible so they should be perhaps taking a different tack because growth benefits the wealthy minority whilst the majority suffer. But then this is typical neo-liberal thinking, and I would expect nothing else from the Davos mob. But it does not make it right.

We have been led to a dead end by years of growth aligned policy, and of course GDP is hardly a good measure of success. And this same thinking has bankrupted monetary policy too. Time for some fresh thinking!

London’s Rental Crisis Is Barking Mad…

The property crisis we see in Australia is being replicated in other places too, including the UK, where again the rental sector is in the centre of the storm. So we look at a recent article from the AFR, which highlights the pressures on the system, with large rental increases, massive demand for accommodation, whilst supply is reducing due to policy changes. Once again it is an object lesson in market failure.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Mortgage Stress Continues To Grind Higher In March…

The latest results from our surveys and modelling to end March 2023 reveals that more financial stress is piling on households, thanks to higher rates, bigger loans, and rising costs of living. Income growth is not keeping pace.

So in this show we walk through the results, by post code. And we also make some general observations about how households can deal with the pressures.

http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The New Zealand Hawk Stands Alone…

A significant gulf has opened up between New Zealand and Australia in terms of monetary policy, after RBNZ lifted another 50 basis points, while Australia held. Underlying this are a series of conflicting assumptions about how the economies will fare – but the risk of recession in New Zealand is now highly likely – some would say certain; while in Australia, the protection of the housing market appears to be front of mind, with the RBA willing to let inflation burn hotter for longer. Both cannot be right!

Signs That US Credit Growth Is Turning To The Deep Freeze

A recent survey of Texas bankers provides a significant indication of the potential economic slow-down which is underway in the USA. While it is possible Texas may be an outlier, it does chime with other recent data, as household savings balances are being substituted for personal credit, lending standards are being tightened, and commercial credit is throttled back. Combined this is another significant indicator of a potential recession ahead.