Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.

The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.

Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.

The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.

It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.

The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.

But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.

The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.

Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.

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Put Interest Rates Up, And Reform Taxes Now!

The IMF just dropped a bombshell on Australia, saying that Interest rates should be hiked even higher and the Australian governments should slash spending to avoid stoking inflation. And proper tax reform was essential as an optimal tax package for growth and equity should rely more on the GST, take pressure off personal income tax paid by workers and crack down on capital gains tax breaks.

Now, let me say the IMF has a particular free-market neo-liberal western economic spin, but their comments are pretty damming and need to be taken seriously. Yet of course the Australian polies were quick to claim the IMF somehow endorsed their current policy settings – what – read the report Albo!

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Falling Trend Hours Worked May Signal Interest Rate Peak!

Economists got a surprise today as employment fell 65,100 in the month, compared with an average expected rise of 15,000, as hours worked and participation both fell. That said, the prospect of the RBA delivering one final rise in February appears over. Only a big surprise in the December quarter inflation numbers, which will be released on January 31, could force economists to revise their near universal forecast for rates to remain on hold next month. And the monthly inflation data doesn’t point to a shock.

The ABS Labour Force statistics for December was based on surveys run from Sunday 26 November to Saturday 9 December, and collected over the period from Sunday 3 December to Wednesday 20 December. They also rotate the sample, with the new incoming group showing a higher unemployment rate than the outgoing group.

The results from the survey showed that in seasonally adjusted terms with employment dropping by 65,000 people, along with a small fall in the number of unemployed people (1,000), the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9 per cent in December.

Actually, the falling participation rate stopped the Unemployment rate from climbing as hiring eases, though perhaps most concerning is the trend in hours worked, which has been falling for the better part of a year. How much of this is summer holiday related is an open question, but it seems more structural to me. We also need to note the loss of 106,000 full time jobs, compared to 41,000 part time roles, especially among part-time women. And remember given the current migration settings we need more that 30,000 additional jobs just to stand still.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The People Versus Financial Tyranny: With Robbie Barwick

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens party.

The Senate will be delivering their report on Regional Banking, and it will be important to ensure access to cash is protected in an era of CBDC. And we need to ensure the Government does not outsource its fiscal and monetary authority to the Reserve Bank. Behind these issues is the question of power, and tyranny. Who is setting the agenda, and who is in control?

Original stream with chat replay here: https://youtube.com/live/7Or8ais2WxI

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another thought provoking chat with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest trends and news. Looks like 2024 will be quite a year!

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Child Finds Killer Asbestos In Playground!

Once again, another horrifying sage of dumped asbestos turning up in the wrong place, with potentially fatal consequences.

As the Guardian reported, Asbestos has been found in additional samples of garden mulch taken from the Rozelle parklands in Sydney’s inner west, with the state government still unable to say where else in the city the contaminated material may have been used.

After an initial find, an urgent audit was under way to determine what other sites could be affected by what the premier, Chris Minns, described as “a toxic substance”. The government closed the Rozelle parklands to the public and called in contamination experts just three weeks after the park opened above the interchange.

The nearly 10 hectares of green space includes extensive cycleways and green expanses alongside large exhaust stacks for the tunnels below. The parkland was meant to appease inner west residents who had put up with years of tunnelling noises and road closures during the construction of the Rozelle interchange.

The premier said the government needed to know where potentially contaminated mulch had been used “as soon as possible” so it could close the other sites.

“I realise that is massively inconvenient during the school holidays … but we can’t muck around with safety – this is obviously a toxic substance,” Minns said.

John Holland built the interchange and the park. One of its executives, Mark Davies, said he could not immediately disclose a list of the other sites where the mulch had been used.

Over 97% of the asbestos products used in Australia was non-friable material in which the asbestos fibres were bonded by cement, vinyl, resin or other similar material. This form of asbestos product/material is often cited as quite safe unless damaged, sawn, drilled, sanded, crushed or is excessively weathered; But if any of these occur, then non-friable hard bonded asbestos products may release fibres and become friable.

In other words, bonded asbestos is not safe. Corrugated asbestos sheet roofing often shows signs of weathering. When it’s broken into smaller fragments, fibres are released. So Non-friable (bonded) asbestos has the potential to become equally as dangerous as friable asbestos, a distinction should never be made because of the type, colour or form of asbestos – all types, colours and forms of asbestos have the potential to kill people!

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It’s All Happening – Again! With Tarric Brooker…

My first Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, Journalist and Chart-Meister.

Will recent developments force a replay of the recent inflation crisis and keep rates higher for longer. If so, what are the potential implications politically and economically?

His charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-january-2024

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No Wriggle Room For The RBA!

The latest monthly inflation read was out today, and it suggests rates will be higher for longer. While there was a drop, some of this was helped by Government intervention, and some other factors in the incomplete monthly numbers were still strong.

The RBA started tightening later than peers, yet shifted to smaller, quarter-point moves earlier. Now, as global disinflation trends beg the question whether Australia will again lag its peers, what’s clear is that the RBA will stay hawkish until it sees credible signs that inflation is moving back to target.

This month’s annual increase of 4.3 per cent is down from the 4.9 per cent rise in October and is the smallest annual increase since January 2022.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis

This is an edit of our latest live discussion as I walked through our recent survey results, and discussed the outcomes at a postcode level.

For the full survey analysis see our show here: https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA

For additional post codes requested see here: https://youtu.be/TJ65WucbZAM

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Household Stress: You Asked, We Answered! [Postcode Analysis]

Following my post about Household Financial Stress https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA and the upcoming live show tomorrow, I received many requests for postcode level analysis. So I made an extra show here to cover some of the requests.

Post Codes Covered (In Order) In This Show:
3912
4868
2560
4670
2487
6149
3842
3799
6072
4178
2042
4215
3690
2640
6030
2137
4670
3174
3012

Join us tomorrow on the live show for more. https://youtube.com/live/nXhfjacOnA0

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