Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another deep dive into the dynamics of property with our insider Edwin Almeida. How are the new listings tracking, and how does this compare with the MSM stories we are seeing? Will new construction volumes remain in the doldrums?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Ahead of my live show on Tuesday evening, today I walk through the latest from our household surveys, with a focus on mortgage, rental, investor and overall household financial stress.
We look at the top stressed postcodes as represented by the data to end December 2023. We also map that data for selected urban centres, as well as default estimates.
If you want data on a specific postcode to be featured on Tuesday drop it in the comments on YouTube.
Details of our One to One Service is also found on our blog: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
CoreLogic reported that their national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 8.1% in 2023, a significant turnaround from the 4.9% drop seen in 2022, but well below the 24.5% surge recorded in 2021. December’s 0.4% increase saw 2023 finish with a relatively soft monthly rise in home values.
Despite the annual 8.1% increase, the year was punctuated by diversity , with the annual change in housing values ranging from a 15.2% surge in Perth to a 1.6% fall across regional Victoria.
So now of course, the question is what will happen in 2024. Last week I made two shows for the channel, one on the top 5 elements supporting home price growth in 2024 and the other on the top five elements which could drive prices lower.
If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong. On the other hand, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.
To make an assessment of what will play out, you then have to do is to weigh the relative influence of each of these forces, against an unstable local and global economic environment.
This is something we model dynamically, in our Core Market Model, which incorporates all these elements and delivers scenarios at a post code level for houses and units.
In comparison, the AFR published estimates from a panel of 10 property market experts and economists. Overall, they take a more sober view on growth prospects for the housing market, with most tipping gains of somewhere between 1 and 5 per cent. The most optimistic prediction is for house price gains of up to 8 per cent, while the most bearish forecast is for prices to fall nationally by as much 5 per cent.
Last year’s “very unusual supply and demand dynamics” are expected to normalise in 2024, according to Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters, who is tipping 4.8 per cent growth nationally. Sydney house prices could rise by 3.8 per cent, with Melbourne up 3.2 per cent and Brisbane 5.9 per cent.
“Importantly, we think borrowing capacity will re-emerge as a key constraint on demand,” she told AFR Weekend in a quarterly property survey.
Trying to pin the tail on the property price donkey, is fraught with difficulty, because of the uncertainty in the system – one reason why I run scenarios, and why the specific tale you prefer will influence your expectation of price movements.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Well, the numbers are now in so today I am going to review the performance of our channel over the last year, and specifically highlight the top 10 most watched shows.
I want to thank you for being part of the DFA community, watching our shows, and supporting us by subscribing, liking the shows, and sharing them widely. Its greatly appreciated and I want to celebrate the momentum we created together. Especially around some of our campaigns, most notably addressing the issue of bank branch closures and the need to be able to access cash.
None of these top ten were my live shows, which generally run each Tuesday evening. Generally live events tend to do less well on YT compared with recorded shows. But the great positive of live is the audience participation, which is key to building and nourishing the community. So a quick word of thanks, to all those who turn out regularly to support our live events.
And if you stand back, its clear that housing related shows rate well, as do the regular chats with Tarric and his slides, and some of the more philosophical shows such as Down the Rabbit Hole and the BRICS discussion, also did well.
If you have specific subjects you would like me to cover, or guest suggestions, drop them in the chat!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we make our predictions for 2024 and discuss the latest property trends.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Wishing all our followers and supporters a happy 2024. We will be back with daily shows on finance and property, and we briefly touch on some of the items on our new year agenda.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this show, we examine the main reasons why it is likely property prices will fall next year – this is a counterpoint to my earlier show which went through the Five reasons why they will rise – as trotted out by the property spruikers.
In summary, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.
And let’s be clear, the great Australian dream of owning a home is now totally out of reach, and many who were pulled into the market in recent years are in strife, to the point where rental costs have gone though the roof, and tent cities are becoming a thing. The very soul of Australia is decaying, unfortunately, that is unless you are fortunate enough to have family wealth or an existing property portfolio, which could now potentially fall in value.
Of course, the actual trajectory of home prices will vary across states, locations and types of property, and averages mask important differences. Which is why in our modelling we go granular – to a post code level, and also consider various scenarios based of the relative weightings of the positive drivers to prices we discussed yesterday, and the downward drivers we looked at today. So the answer is: it depends.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
News.com.au reported that a staggering 2,349 construction firms have collapsed in the past year – with fears more may fall soon.
A “perfect storm” of high interest rates, soaring material costs and an ongoing worker shortage across the Aussie industry have sent tradies into freefall.
Insolvencies in the construction industry have reached an annual record this year, according to fresh data published by the corporate regulator ASIC.
The September quarter was the worst for the industry in 2023, where 785 construction businesses traded as insolvent. Just this month four building companies went bust in the first three days of the month.
And amid a chronic shortage of housing fuelled by Australia’s record overseas migration intake, the collapse of builders, contractors and subcontractors will not only have an immediate impact but could crimp future supply of new homes.
We look in more detail at the numbers…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
In this show, I will explore 5 reasons why home prices in Australia could rise in 2024.
If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong.
But in my next show, I will look at the arguments on the other side of the argument, because as you may have guessed, there are also a series of coherent arguments as to why prices might go sideways or fall!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live Christmas discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, as we reflect on the markets over the past year, and look ahead into 2024.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/