Social Trends – Page 21 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

A Death, A Legacy And A Quest…

On the 23rd December 2021 Gill, my wife of 28 years died as a result of exposure to Asbestos and the cruel disease of mesothelioma.

There are articles in a number of places, including The Daily Mail, about her story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10341353/Husbands-farewell-Gillian-North-warned-home-renovators-died-asbestos-related-cancer.html

And her story is also told on the video I made, incorporating A Current Affair footage back in 2021.

In memory of her we continue to run Asbestos Awareness Australia, a charity Gill launched before her death, to help to raise awareness in the community of the scourge of asbestos, which still remains in about one home in three.

Home

It kills several thousand people each year and around 800 of which are from mesothelioma in Australia. In 2022, it is estimated that there were 761 deaths from mesothelioma in Australia.

So, the legacy of Gills death is our commitment to continue to raise awareness of this pernicious product, continue to lobby Government for better reforms – Gill published a series of research papers on just this point – available from the Asbestos Awareness Australia web site, and the Quest is to ensure that ordinary Australians are better aware of the risks stemming from Asbestos.

And while its good to know that engineered stone, which has caused problems for those working in that industry is to be banned, Asbestos is the elephant in the room still killing thousands each year, and it’s in one third of homes across the country. And no, it is not just multiple exposures, one exposure to a few fibres is sufficient, and even undisturbed asbestos continues to deteriorate over time, so there is no such thing as safe asbestos if its left in situ. And it can take years for the disease to show.

Think Asbestos!

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Will Rising Household Wealth Drive Interest Rates Higher?

The ABS reported that Household wealth rose for the fourth straight quarter (+2.3 per cent or $339 billion) in the September quarter 2023. What you say, we are not feeling it!

The key of course is distribution across households, and the nexus is property values. The ABS says “Household wealth is supported by house prices which have continued to grow despite increases in interest rates” so that total household wealth was $15.3 trillion in the September quarter, which was 7.0 per cent ($998 billion) higher than a year ago. This was largely driven by residential land and dwellings, which contributed 1.7 percentage points to quarterly growth.

And the growth in household wealth was also supported by seasonal tax refunds coming in at the start of the financial year, with deposits increasing 3.4 per cent ($52.8 billion) over the September quarter.

Deposits into accessible transaction accounts (known as Transferrable Deposits) made up $24.4 billion of this increase, with most going into offset accounts. Another $26.1 billion was invested in high interest Non-Transferable Deposits, including term deposits.

So, if you are in the right cohorts, with savings, mortgage free houses, and other assets, you are doing well, whereas many others are simply not. If you are a renter, or mortgaged up to the gills your wealth could well be minimal, while debts are building. So actually, this a symptom of the building inequality in the system.

This puts the RBA in a tricky position. And in fact, while markets doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver any more rate rises, with current cash rate at 4.35%, the central bank warned on Tuesday it may need to deliver another cash rate increase if inflation remains too high.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

UK Inflation Surprises On The Downside…

Prices rose by 3.9% in the year to November, down from 4.6% in October according to data from the ONS today, driven by positive base effects mainly across oil products. Remember that falling inflation also does not mean most goods and services are cheaper, but rather prices are rising less quickly.

That rise compares to a more-than four-decade high rate above 11% reached last year. The last time inflation in the UK was lower than 3.9% was in September 2021 when it was 3.1%. Most economists had expected UK inflation to fall to 4.3% last month. As a result, UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level for more than two years, driven largely by a drop in fuel prices.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to November 2023, down from 4.7% in October. On a monthly basis, CPIH fell by 0.1% in November 2023, compared with a rise of 0.4% in November 2022. Within that energy prices fell, but rent and council tax were higher.

Slowing price rises for food, including staples such as pasta, milk and butter, as well as for household goods were also behind the fall.

But while inflation, which is the rate prices rise at, is now well down from its peak in 2022, it is still almost double the Bank of England’s 2% target.

UK inflation remains higher than in other countries including the US and Germany but the gap is narrowing. The fall to 3.9% in November puts the UK on level footing with France, but ahead of the EU’s average rate of 3.1% and the US’s 2.1%.

The softer inflation data prompted Goldman Sachs to bring forward its expectation for the first BOE rate cut to May from June previously.

Ahead, of course the impact of potentially higher Oil prices thanks to the closure of the Suez Canal for some ships, which have driven oil prices higher, and the removal of Government support for higher power prices might turn the inflation gauge higher in the months ahead. So again, markets are ahead of themselves, it will be some time before inflation is approaching the 2% target.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Cameron Murray: Mates, Power, Politics & Economics

This is an edit of a live discussion with Dr Cameron K. Murray, an independent economist who publishes at Fresh Economic Thinking https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/. We discussed housing policy and economics in general.

Here is the link to Cameron’s new book, out February 27th 2024 https://www.amazon.com.au/Great-Housing-Hijack-keeping-Australia/dp/176147085X

He recently republished his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”.

This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins

‘You’ll be shocked at how far the Mates have their hand in your pocket.’ – Nicholas Gruen

Australia has become one of the most unequal societies in the Western world, when just a generation ago it was one of the most equal. This is the story of how networks of Mates have come to dominate business and government, robbing ordinary Australians.

Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.

Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information-sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia and how we have fallen behind other countries in combating it.

https://www.bigw.com.au/product/rigged-by-cameron-murray-and-paul-frijters/p/235646

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Great Australian Savings Account Rip-Off!

If you have savings with a bank in Australia, it is highly likely you are being ripped off. After all, Australian Consumers depend on retail deposit products to conduct their everyday banking, to safely store over $1.4 trillion of their savings and, importantly, to earn a decent return on these funds.

However, as I have been highlighting in recent shows, changes in the cash rate (often referred to as the ‘official interest rate’) via the RBA, and which is the rate paid on lending between banks in the overnight cash market only indirectly affect the cost of funding from retail deposits and the interest rates paid on retail deposit products.

Banks are quick to lift mortgage rates on mortgages, but have been significantly less market driven in terms of deposit rates, with many savers loosing out. Yet relatively few consumers switch deposit products, despite there often being a range of alternative products offering better interest rates and conditions. This loyalty tax means consumers earn significantly less than they should, over all on deposits, which boosts bank profits significantly.

So now the ACCC just completed a report on Retail Deposit Account. They gathered information, and documents on retail deposit products supplied by 14 of the largest banks in Australia. These banks collectively hold more than 90% of household deposits in Australia. This included seeking information directly from these banks as to their retail deposit products and from APRA and RBA, as well as reviewing the information available to the public on the banks’ websites.

The ACCC findings highlights that despite the importance of transaction accounts, savings accounts and term deposits, the ongoing challenges consumers face in searching for, comparing, and switching between products means that consumer engagement with the market for retail deposit products is relatively low. This low level of engagement means many consumers miss out on earning more from their savings.

Widespread strategic and selective pricing also adds difficulty for consumers when seeking to locate key product information and compare market offerings. This lack of transparency may also damage consumer confidence in the market.

Given the range of factors that banks take into account and the strategic pricing approaches they employ when setting their retail deposit rates, the interest rates received by consumers do not automatically follow movements in the cash rate target.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/