"Intelligent Insight"
Tarric is back for another Friday discussion, charts and all. What’s happening to the Australian economy, and what does it mean for households?
Tarric’s slides are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-24th-november-2023
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is my edit of our monthly discussion with Nuggets News, covering the latest economic and market developments.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The 2023 Intergenerational Report projected that Australia’s population will swell by a whopping 14 million people (+50%) over the next 40 years to 40.5 million people – equivalent to adding a combined Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide to Australia’s current population.
The number one solution to Australia’s housing (and infrastructure) shortage is to moderate NOM to a level that is below the nation’s ability to supply new homes, infrastructure, and business investment, while also safeguarding the natural environment (including water supplies).
And there is simply no way that we will build enough homes with current extreme NOM levels, as well as high interest rates, elevated materials costs, widespread builder insolvencies, and the like.
The whole notion of bringing in migrants to build homes for migrants is also circular ‘tail wagging the dog’ economics. It is nonsensical to import more migrants to fix a housing shortage caused by too many migrants.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The currently running Senate inquiry into bank branch closures has flushed out that while banks are claiming they are following their customers into a digital future, actually, they ae rather setting that agenda, removing ATMS and Branches and forcing people to go digital, whether they want to or not.
And some banks have all but admitted they are fudging the figures, to buttress their strategy, never mind the impact on real customers.
While politicians are keen to step back from the argument on the basis banks are commercial entities and should be able to make what ever strategic decisions they want, the truth is banks are a government protected species, who have received massive financial support from us tax-payers via the Term Funding Facility and other measures.
And to reinforce the argument that we are being lied to, according to a news.com.au exclusive article, a former ANZ employee has alleged that the bank is forcing customers out of branches and then using their absence to justify branch closures.
Phillip, a pseudonym told news.com.au that during the time he worked at an ANZ branch in a metropolitan area, staff were directed not to serve customers who came to the branch.
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This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and co-founder of Macrobusiness. Leith has been leading the charge in highlighting how high migration is killing the property market. Tonight we look at the latest economic trends, and also will compare New Zealand with Australia.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider as we look at the divergence of the market in Sydney and Melbourne, the new state of origin quest between NSW and QLD, and how not to be bullied by agents desperate for a sale.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Recent property purchasers in New Zealand are more likely now to sell at a loss, according to property data company CoreLogic’s latest Pain and Gain Report.
The report found 7.4% of the residential properties sold across the entire country in the September quarter were sold for less than their owners paid for them. But in Auckland, where 11.3% of sales fetched prices below what owners had paid for them. Those least likely to make a loss were in Christchurch where the loss making rate was just 4.7% of total sales.
The proportion of loss making sales has increased rapidly since the beginning of 2021 and is now at its highest point since 2015.
The median size of the loss on properties sold for less than their purchase price was $45,000. However that would likely balloon out to $70,000 or more once selling expenses such as agent’s fees and legal expenses are added.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The ugly truth about inflation is households are having to pay more, to buy less.
We have seen this in a number of data points, the most recent is from the UK, where the Office of National Statistics just released their latest data for October. It revealed that UK retail sales fell unexpectedly, adding to the impression that a string of interest-rate hikes designed to beat down inflation is beginning to stymie economic activity.
This is an early indication that overall economic output will probably be weak in the fourth quarter.
Economists were expecting a rise of 0.4% for October. Instead, sales fell to their lowest since February 2021 when Covid restrictions were in place, with retailers citing the cost-of-living crisis and bad weather for the poor performance. It bodes ill for the “golden quarter,” the run-up to Christmas when stores can make a majority of their yearly profits.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is our weekly market update.
Here is the big question. Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? That’s the question investors are asking as the S&P 500 heads into the close of the year with fresh highs possibly coming into view. A softer tone to U.S. economic data this week has fueled rate-cuts bets, pushing Treasury yields down and lifting equity markets. For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.2% while the Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% and the Dow climbed 1.9%.
This extended a rally that has seen the S&P 500 gain over 9% since late October. The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Its record closing level, from January 2022, is some 6% away.
Whether it can reach those levels in coming weeks depends in-part on how convinced investors are that the U.S. economy is on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed brings down inflation without badly damaging growth. So far, the economy has proven resilient in the face of tighter monetary policy, though some measures of employment and consumer demand have softened.
Leading global investors expect inflation and interest rates to remain high well into next year and are bracing for more volatile sharemarkets where easy returns will be hard to find.
Top fund managers, company founders and superannuation funds told the Sohn Hearts & Minds event at the Sydney Opera House on Friday that they were looking beyond big name, overpriced Wall Street stocks that would struggle to deliver growth.
Instead, investors willing to gamble on unloved and unpopular stocks would do best, they said. Many investors warn there is a huge insolvency risk lurking in private markets.
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Time to act to save Australia from the Central Bankers’ Power grab. I discuss the impending legislation which would disable Parliament’s power to intervene on what the RBA does; with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.
We need to register our opposition to the bill which is being snuck in via the back-door of cross-party consensus. The very future of Australia as a democratic country is at stake. Call and email now!
Breaking news! Treasurer Jim Chalmers is preparing to introduce a bill to implement the RBA Review recommendations, including removing democratic accountability over the Reserve Bank, in two weeks – the last week of November.
Don’t let the major parties do a back-room deal to wave this bill through!
Help fight to protect the most important democratic protection in Australian law by calling and emailing three people immediately:
Tell them they have no right to repeal Section 11 of the RBA Act, which would give up the power of democratic accountability over the RBA and the banking system that political giants in history like John Curtin and Ben Chifley fought so hard to establish.
Robbie’s earlier video : https://youtu.be/EA7FhBZxfuM
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