Mastercard Opens-Up Access to Blockchain API for Partner Banks and Merchants

Mastercard announced in New York that it will be opening up access to its blockchain technology via its API published on Mastercard Developers.

Mastercard’s blockchain solution provides a new way for consumers, businesses and banks to transact and is key to the company’s strategy to provide payment solutions that meet every need of financial institutions and their end-customers. The Mastercard blockchain API will be part of the Money 20/20 hackathon in Las Vegas next week.

The company has tested and validated its blockchain and will initially implement the technology in the business-to-business (B2B) space to address challenges of speed, transparency and costs in cross-border payments. The Mastercard blockchain technology will complement the company’s existing capabilities including virtual cards, Mastercard Send and Vocalink to support all types of cross-border, B2B payment flows – account-based, blockchain-based and card-based.

There are four key differentiators of the Mastercard blockchain – privacy, flexibility, scalability, and most importantly, the reach of the company’s settlement network.

  • Privacy – Mastercard blockchain provides privacy by ensuring that transaction details are shared only amongst the participants of a transaction while maintaining a fully auditable and valid ledger of transactions.
  • Flexibility – Partners can use the blockchain APIs in conjunction with a wider suite of Mastercard APIs to create a range of powerful, new applications. Software development kits are available in six different languages to make the APIs even easier to integrate.
  • Scalability – Mastercard blockchain is designed for commercial processing speed and extensibility by reaching consensus between a trusted network moderator and network participants.
  • Reach – Mastercard blockchain is integrated into the company’s payment network that includes 22,000 financial institutions to move funds that have been committed on the blockchain.

“By combining Mastercard blockchain technology with our settlement network and associated network rules, we have created a solution that is safe, secure, auditable and easy to scale,” said Ken Moore, executive vice president, Mastercard Labs. “When it comes to payments, we want to provide choice and flexibility to our partners where they are able to seamlessly use both our existing and new payment rails based on the needs and requirements of their customers.”

Mastercard blockchain solution has the ability to power secure and seamless non-card payment transactions such as business-to-business payments and trade finance transactions. It also has the ability to power non- payment solutions such as proof of provenance that helps authenticate products across the supply chain.

With this proprietary solution, Mastercard hopes to create new benefits for its partners and make the commerce ecosystem easier, faster and safer. In addition to building a new solution, the company has also filed for over 35 patents in blockchain and invested in Digital Currency Group, a collaborator that builds, incubates and seeds Bitcoin and blockchain technology-related companies. It recently joined the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance to explore the possibilities of the Ethereum technology across a wide range of potential use cases, many of them well outside the scope of Mastercard’s traditional payments environment. In addition, Mastercard is also working on new use cases with startups that are a part of its Start Path Global program.

‘No formula’ for mortgage repricing, says NAB CEO

From The Adviser.

NAB chief executive Andrew Thorburn told a parliamentary committee on Friday (20 October) that if the bank wanted to maximise profits, it would not have reduced principal and interest rates by 8 basis points for 500,000 customers.

“We are trying to do a whole lot of very delicate things in a very dynamic market,” Mr Thorburn said.

“APRA required 30 per cent. We then have to make a judgement of what the number should be to get to that. That’s an estimate we make in very fast-moving competitive, dynamic environment.

“There is no base number to work off. You have to estimate what you think it takes with the price to reduce your demand in a market where there are dozens of players doing the same thing.”

Committee chair David Coleman MP was eager to find a correlation between NAB’s 35 basis point hike on all interest-only loans and APRA’s direction for banks to cap new interest-only lending at 30 per cent.

Mr Coleman questioned whether the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which is currently investigating banks’ mortgage pricing decisions, will find the cost of the change as materially less than what NAB charged its customers.

“I don’t think we will ever know,” Mr Thorburn said. “The ACCC [has] all the documents. There is no formula that tells you what the number should be.”

Also appearing in Canberra on Friday was NAB’s chief operating officer, Antony Cahill, who confirmed that the major bank has reduced its interest-only portfolio from 41 per cent to 37.7 per cent of the total book.

He explained that price was just one of the many levers the bank pulled to meet regulatory requirements and lend responsibly. Others include LVR caps, ceasing lending to non-resident borrowers and introducing an LTI ratio.

Mr Cahill also highlighted that the lender introduced “highly competitive fixed rates” that have driven a surge in volumes.

“Our fixed rate lending has more than doubled in the last three months,” the NAB COO said. “We have gone from $500 million to $1.3 billion of customers with fixed rates.”

Fintech startup, Trade Ledger, launches world-first tech to help banks fight off global tech giants

Fintech Trade Ledger, claimed as the world’s first open digital banking platform has been launched, offering a complete platform-as-a-service for business lenders.

The platform, they say, will help banks assess business lending risk in real time and will so address the US$1.7 trillion global under-supply in trade finance lending, thus providing high-growth companies with much-needed working capital.

Career technologists, Martin McCann and Dr. Matthias Born, are launching a world-first lending tech for banks and traditional lenders that will help to equip them against competition from tech giants such as Facebook, Tencent, and eBay wanting to enter financial services.

Trade Ledger is the world’s first business lending platform that transforms digital data from business supply chains in real time, allowing banks to assess and regularly update credit and default risk of businesses they lend to. Currently this is only done on a one-off or infrequent basis on a very small sample of invoices, and not on any other trade documents.

The platform will finally give banks more advanced network and data analysis technology than global technology companies, in a lending segment that has long suffered from a lack of technological innovation.

“Banks and other business lenders have never been able to accurately leverage quality operational data to determine business lending risk, as a result there is a loan undersupply to the tune of AU$60 billion each year in Australia, and AU$2.1 trillion globally,” said Martin McCann, CEO and Co-Founder of Trade Ledger.

“But as the global economy increasingly transitions towards smaller, high-growth businesses, banks have an obligation to learn how to supply working capital needed by these businesses for sustained growth. If they don’t learn to do this, it’s also only a matter of time before technology giants figure out how to resolve the problem, and swoop in.

“The challenge for banks is improving both its cost/income ratio and capital efficiencies within a segment considered higher risk, and Trade Ledger offers the first open banking platform that resolves both of these challenges.

“This represents a huge opportunity for local Australian banks and specialist business lenders to export financial services globally – so long as they jump on the opportunity to do so before oversees competitors do,” continued Martin McCann.

The idea for the platform came about when the Trade Ledger co-founders realised that the increasing digitisation of business supply chains provided an opportunity to connect the business financial supply chain directly to the bank.

They also wanted to provide a way for banks’ customers to apply for funding in just a few minutes, compared to the current 30-hour average process, helping them to directly compete with more tech-savvy entrants such as fintechs and large tech companies.

“For the first time, banks and other traditional lenders will be able to use the digital information being created in supply chains to predict the exact probability of an individual invoice default at any given time,” continued Martin McCann.

“SMEs will also no longer be treated as one homogeneous, high risk group of borrowers, when differences in corporate structure, business model, cash flow need, degree of technology adoption, scalability, and a multitude of other characteristics that can change hourly all affect default and fraud risk levels significantly,” concluded Martin McCann.

Financial literacy is a public policy problem

From The Conversation.

It’s pretty common nowadays to see the likes of the Reserve Bank of Australia or the Australian Bureau of Statistics issue warnings about the size of Australian household debt. The reason is that the consequences of poor financial decisions often reach far wider than an individual or family.

The global financial crisis showed us how rapidly financial contagion can spread – one person’s debt is another person’s asset, so when the debt is written off so is the asset. However, there has been little improvement in financial literacy in the wake of the financial crisis, the lack of which was one of the underlying causes.

For instance, surveys just prior to the global financial crisis revealed that many Americans taking out home loans either did not read their loan documents or did not understand them. This meant that, in many cases, they did not understand that they were signing teaser loans where the interest rate starts out very low but increases after a few years.

This lack of financial literacy combined with predatory lending caused the subprime loan crisis, the precursor to the full blown financial crisis.

What is financial literacy?

Financial literacy refers to the ability to make sound financial decisions based on knowledge, skills and attitudes, taking into account personal circumstances.

Low financial literacy is particularly concerning in home loans. In an alarming parallel to the United States before the financial crisis, roughly one third of interest-only mortgagees do not understand that their repayments make no inroads into their debt, and that their interest rates will jump considerably after the interest-only period of the loan has expired.

But it isn’t just that low financial literacy increases risk. It is also important for achieving a productive economy. Economic efficiency requires borrowers to not only have good information but to understand it. This allows them to weigh up the costs of borrowing with the benefits that they expect to receive.

If the information is distorted, either deliberately by lenders or through the misunderstanding of borrowers, they will miscalculate the benefits and capital in the economy will be misallocated. Economists call this market failure, a lot of which occurred in the housing market in the United States before the global financial crisis.

Financial literacy isn’t improving

Evidence suggests that financial literacy has not improved since the global financial crisis, and may have gotten worse.

A survey of adult financial literacy in Australia found that in 2014 the number of people who could actually recognise an investment was “too good to be true” – for example a financial asset promising to pay a return much higher than the going return on similar assets and for no greater risk – had actually declined, to 50% from 53% just three years earlier.

The survey also found that those who recognised that good investments (something with relatively low risk) may fluctuate in value fell to 67% from 74%.

But financial literacy education must also go hand in hand with general literacy and numeracy. The Productivity Commission found that 14% of the adult population had relatively low literacy skills in 2011-12. This is defined as being able to, at best, locate basic information from simple texts but being unable to evaluate truth claims or arguments.

The report also found 22% of the population had low numeracy skills, meaning that they can count, add and subtract and do other basic arithmetic. But they cannot understand statistical ideas, mathematical formula or analyse data.

In other words, a significant proportion of the Australian adult population are not equipped to understand the effect of an interest rate increase on their loan repayments, or understand a loan document that includes an interest rate increase after an initial period.

Fixing the problem of financial illiteracy cannot wait until people are in the throes of negotiating home loans and credit cards. And it should definitely take place before Australians resort to pay day loans.

This was the aim of the Australian Government’s National Financial Literacy Strategy, that ends this year. The strategy proposes a number of educational initiatives including embedding financial literacy in the school curriculum, a formal teacher training program, and development of educational resources and tools.

The strategy draws on similar steps that have been adopted by other countries and recommended by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The problem is that the curriculum is a crowded space. Financial literacy must compete with the latest fashions in school education as well as traditional curriculum content.

Fighting for curriculum space for financial literacy is a political exercise which governments must play hard. For example, by attaching serious funding to the achievement of financial literacy indicators at the school level, and training and certification for teachers. Increasing financial literacy isn’t just in the best interest of individuals, we all benefit from a more literate population.

Author: Ross Guest, Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University

Auction Results 21 Oct 2017

The preliminary auction clearance results are in from Domain.  Looks like the volume of sales has fallen compared with last week (even though the clearance rate is higher) and last year – all subject to final results later of course. Melbourne is still hotter than Sydney, where our leading indicator research suggests appetite for property is cooling the fastest.

Brisbane achieved 49% clearance on 102 scheduled auctions, Adelaide 70% on 103 scheduled, and Canberra 70% on 49 scheduled auctions.

China, QE and Housing Key Australian Investor Concerns

A China downturn has moved back into the top spot of Australian credit markets risks over the next 12 months, according to Fitch Ratings‘ 4Q17 fixed-income investor survey, with 42% of respondents ranking a hard landing as a high risk, up from 25% in 2Q17. China replaces a domestic housing market downturn as the top risk, which has dropped to third, while the prospect of quantitative easing (QE) withdrawal has moved into second place.

More investors (43%) expect fundamental credit conditions to deteriorate for financials, rather than improve (16%). Property market exposure is still considered the main threat to bank asset quality, although risks were broadly considered to be rising. Most investors also expect bank lending conditions to tighten over the next year.

However, investors are decidedly more upbeat about the economic outlook. More than 80% believe unemployment will not rise above 6% over the next two years and 37% expect house prices to rise over the next three years, up from 23% in our 2Q17 survey. Consistent with this improving outlook, not one investor anticipates interest rates being cut over the next 12 months.

Our 4Q17 survey shows a continued rise in investors expecting cash to be used for capex by Australian corporates; 67% see this as a significant or moderate use of cash, up from 45% in 2Q17 and 33% in 4Q16. However, shareholder oriented activities remain as the most likely use of cash, consistent with the finding of all eight surveys undertaken over the previous four years.

Australian fixed-income investors believe debt issuance is likely to increase over the next 12 months, and structured finance remains the favoured asset class, with 67% expecting issuance to increase, up from 58% in our 2Q17 survey.

A new question introduced in our 4Q17 survey asked investors about the effect of environmental, social and governance risks on their investments. A 60% majority expect an increased financial impact.

The 4Q17 survey was undertaken in partnership with KangaNews – a specialist publishing house that provides commentary on fixed-income markets in Australia and New Zealand. Findings represent the views of managers of more than AUD500 billion of fixed-income assets, accounting for over three-quarters of Australia’s domestic real-money market.

Fitch’s 4Q17 fixed-income investor survey was conducted between 28 August and 11 September 2017. This survey is unique in the Australian context, reflecting the partners’ strong ties with the local investor community.

Pulling In Two Directions – The Property Imperative Weekly 21 Oct 2017

The latest economic and finance data appears to be pulling in two directions, so we discuss the trends.

Welcome to the Property Imperative Weekly to 21st October 2017. Watch the video, or read the transcript!

In this week’s review of the latest finance and property news, we start with data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in their newly released report Australian Welfare 2017. This is a distillation of data from various public sources, rather than offering new research.

In the housing chapter, they reinforce the well-known fact that home ownership is falling in Australia, while rates have been rising in a number of other comparable countries. Contributing to this trend overseas, at least in part, they say, are changes in the characteristics of households (including population ageing, household structure, and income and education) and policy influences, such as mortgage market innovations (including the relaxation of deposit constraints, increasing home ownership rates among lower income households, and tax reliefs on mortgage debt financing). In Australia, the steepest decline in home ownership rates across the 25 years to 2013–14 has been for people aged 25–34. This is typically the age at which first transitions into home ownership are made. But, fewer and fewer people in this age group are entering home ownership, with a 21 percentage point decline to just 39% in 2013–14 (compared with 60% in 1988–89). Home ownership rates for people aged 35–44 also fell, but not so much (12 percentage points).

Also, the proportion of home owners without a mortgage has continued to fall, while the proportion of renters has increased. Now more home owners have a mortgage, compared with those who own their property outright. Another fact is the startling gap between the rise in home prices, relative to disposable incomes, creating a barrier to home ownership for many. This gap has been fuelled by rapid house price growth (up 250% since the 1990’s), after the financial system was deregulated, with the total value of Australian housing estimated to be more than $6.5 trillion. Of course, the impact of higher house prices has been partially offset by lower mortgage interest rates, increased credit availability and changes in financial agency practices. These favourable lending conditions and low interest rates have encouraged buyers into the market, despite the growth in house prices themselves. This could all got wrong should mortgage rates rise.

The final piece of data shows that households are getting a mortgage later in life, and holding it longer, often well into retirement. In 2013, 71% of people born between 1957 and 1966 (mainly baby boomers), were financing a mortgage when aged 45–54. This trend is of particular concern as these households’ approach retirement without their home and asset base being paid off. For people looking to retire in the next 10 years, 45% of 55–64-year-olds in 2013 were still servicing a mortgage, compared with just 26% in 1982.

As the recent Citi report emphasises, and using our Core Market Data, the large level of debt outstanding by borrowers aged in their 50s and 60s means many investors will need to sell property to discharge their debts, especially those holding interest only loans. Given that the average age of wealthy seniors is 63 and the average IO debt is $236,400, Citi expressed concern that this cohort will not have enough time to repay the principal “without a significant hit to household cash flows”.

We still think the mortgage underwriting standards are too lose in Australia, as regulators try to balance slowing the market, but not killing the goose which is laying the golden economic egg.  So we found the Canadian regulators intervention in their mortgage market this week significant. There the index of house prices to disposable income has increased 25%, from 2000,  raising the prospect that real estate overvaluation is driving up overall household debt and overextending borrowers. So they tightened serviceability requirements and imposed loan to value limits on lenders.

Good news on housing affordability this week from the HIA, at least for some. Their Housing Affordability index for Australia improved by 0.5 per cent in the September 2017 quarter but still remains 4.4 per cent below the level recorded a year ago. It also showed that while some owner occupied borrowers had seen their mortgage rates drop, many property investors, has seen their rates rise. Sydney remains the least affordable market they say.

Our friends at Mozo wrote a blog post for us on the impact of the APRA changes to mortgage rates, which underscored the movements by type of loan.

More good news from the ABS. The monthly trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 per cent over the past year to 5.5 per cent in September, the lowest rate seen since March 2013. The participation rate remained steady at 65.2 per cent, within that male participation rate was 70.8 per cent, while the female participation rate reached a record high of 59.9 per cent. Over the past year, the states with the strongest annual growth in employment were Queensland (4.1 per cent), Tasmania (3.9 per cent), Victoria (3.1 per cent) and Western Australia (2.9 per cent). However, the underemployment trend rate still does not look that flash, especially in TAS, SA and WA, and we have a very high unemployment rate among younger workers as well as a rise in more casual, part-time work. All of this translates to lower wages.

The latest data from S&P showed a small decline in mortgage defaults in August. S&P said arrears decreased in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) over the month, with noticeable improvements in Australia’s mining states and territories. The Northern Territory recorded the largest improvement, with arrears declining to 1.63% from 1.98% a month earlier. In Western Australia, arrears fell to 2.22% in August from a historic high of 2.38% in July. They still warned of potential risks in the system, especially from higher LVR IO loans written before 2015. And of course, this is looking a selection of securitised loans which may not be typical, and in any case, in most places home price rises mean struggling borrowers should have the capacity to sell and repay the bank. That would change if prices started to fall seriously.

Talking of risks, there were interesting comments from ASIC this week, suggesting that whilst brokers may be having appropriate conversations with their interest only mortgage customers, there was evidence of poor record keeping. This follows the regulator’s announcement they would commence a loan file review, to ensure that consumers are not paying for more expensive products that are unsuitable. Without good documentation brokers and lenders leave themselves open to the charge of making unsuitable loans, which can have significant consequences.

Another indicator of potential risks in the system is the rise in the number of households seeking short term loans from pay day lenders and other providers. Our surveys show that more than 1.4 million of the 9.5 million households in Australia are looking for finance (and it is rising fast as cash flows are stressed). Not all will successfully obtain a loan. We think more than $1 billion in loans are out there, and our research shows that such short term loans really do not solve household financial issues. However, when people are desperate, they will tend to grasp at any straw in the wind, regardless of cost or consequences. We also find these households are within certain household segments, who tend to be less affluent, and less well educated.

The RBA minutes, release this week, did not tell us much more, but contained this morsel. “Members noted that housing loans as a share of banks’ domestic credit had increased markedly over the preceding two decades. APRA intended to publish a discussion paper later in 2017 addressing the concentration of banks’ exposures to housing.  Members also noted that APRA had intensified its focus on Australian banks strengthening their risk culture”.  We can barely contain our excitement at the prospect! A discussion paper later in the year!

CoreLogic’s latest auction clearance results showed there is still demand for property, with a preliminary clearance rate of 70.6 per cent, and increase from last week when the final clearance rate slipped to 64.4 per cent, the lowest clearance rate since January 2016.

Finally, we released our latest flagship report – The Property Imperative, Volume 9. This is available free on request from our web site and is a distillation of our research into the finance and property market, using data from our household surveys and other public data. Whilst we provide these weekly updates via our blog, twice a year we publish a full report. Volume 9 offers, in one place, a unique summary of the finance and property markets, from a household perspective, over more than 70 pages.

What really struck us as we wrote the report was the amount of change in the property and finance sector, with significant regulatory tightening, changes in mortgage pricing and a rotation in mortgage lending. But the underlying facts of high prices, mortgage stress and rising risks in the system appear unchanged. The number of reports highlighting the risks have risen substantially.

Standing back, sure the data is pulling to two directions, with employment higher, auction clearance rates firm and affordability for some manageable. But the bigger picture contains a number of risks, stemming from the divergence of incomes and home prices, the lose lending standards over the past few years, and the risks from the more recent tightening of the rules, at a time when interest rates are more likely to rise than fall. Without a significant rise in incomes in real terms – and we cannot see where this will come from – the risks to growth and financial stability are still not fully understood.

And that’s the Property Imperative to 21st October 2017. Follow this link to request the Volume 9 Property Imperative Report.

ABA dumps Sedgwick’s commissions guidelines

From Mortgage Professional Australia.

Banks will be free to take their own approaches to broker remuneration after the Australian Bankers Association abandoned a key part of the Sedgwick Review.

Originally the ABA set out for banks to collectively develop “guiding principles” for the way banks remuneration brokers and their own staff. However, the preparation, consultation and finalisation of guiding principles will no longer take place, according to an update on the ABA’s work by independent but ABA-commissioned reviewer Ian McPhee.

Each bank will instead develop its own approach to commission, a move receiving scathing criticism from McPhee: “In taking this decision to vary its implementation plan, the industry has forgone the opportunity to establish guiding principles and demonstrate strong leadership in this area which has traditionally had a high profile, by building on the momentum for change stimulated by the Sedgwick Review and ASIC’s review of mortgage broker remuneration.”

Banks have also dropped their original plan to work directly with legislators to change broker remuneration, McPhee reported. Instead, they will work with brokers within the Combined Industry Forum and “proceed without the need for regulatory or legislative intervention to achieve the outcome of improved payments and governance practices.”

Clearing the path for the Combined Industry Forum

McPhee’s finding that the ABA has effectively sidelined its own report represents a huge victory for brokers.

Sedgwick recommended ‘guiding principles’ which included decoupling remuneration from loan size and bringing broker governance in line with that of retail bank staff.

Furthermore, Sedgwick recommended banks implement these changes by 2020, putting banks on a completely different timeline to that adopted by brokers and the Government following ASIC’s separate remuneration review.

Now banks can develop their own principles for remuneration, they will be free to take pragmatic approaches to commissions which better meet brokers’ expectations. It also opens up the intriguing possibility that banks who are more reliant on brokers – such as the non-majors – could adopt more generous remuneration arrangements than those with larger direct channels.

The signs of division 

MPA reported earlier this week that the Sedgwick’s proposals could soon be buried by the banks.

The first signs of division emerged during the Treasury’s consultation process following ASIC’s Review, where different banks took very different views to those expressed by Sedgwick.

Westpac explicitly criticised the use of flat fees, noting: “a flat fee commission structure could prompt an increase in split banking as brokers seek to maximise income by submitting smaller deals.”

The final straw may have been the announcement that ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott would be the ABA’s next chairman. Elliott told the House of Representatives last week the commission changes were ‘complicated’ and needed more work: deputy CEO Graham Hodges added that “the devil’s in the detail because clearly, it’s going to affect thousands of brokers.”

Is positive credit reporting a flawed deal?

From Australian Broker.

The move towards more comprehensive credit reporting may be beneficial on the surface, but one legal expert has warned that it will have negative impacts on consumers and won’t solve a root issue in the reporting process.

While regulators and credit providers have been singing the praises of this expanded credit reporting regime, it won’t improve the number of inaccuracies in the data collected by credit reporting agencies, Joseph Trimarchi, solicitor at Joseph Trimarchi & Associates told Australian Broker.

“It’s not their fault,” he noted. “They are the custodians of the systems and the information they collect is the information fed to them by credit providers.”

What is lacking is a more precise method of recording this information, he said.

“What we find is that the level of inaccuracies that exist on credit files hasn’t diminished. Those mistakes are still there.”

This is a systematic issue caused by the way credit reporting has been structured since its inception in Australia. While the Privacy Act legislates credit reporting, it does not have an enforcement arm to ensure information is correct, Trimarchi said.

Around 70-80% of lenders are accurate in their listings, he added, with the remainder causing issues for consumers. These inaccuracies existed prior to comprehensive credit reporting and will exist afterwards, he said.

“The information which is collected and the information which appears on the credit file – be it the limited information that was on there prior to positive reporting or the expanded information which is now there – this needs to be correct, accurate and up-to-date.”

This inaccurate information will provide a skewed version of an individual’s credit history with every single credit agency in Australia, Trimarchi said.

“It’s not about the volume of information going in. It’s the accuracy of that information that needs to be looked at.”

The increased volume of information has another potential impact on consumers, he added, in that minor financial missteps will now be recorded.

“Even if a loan is in arrears for a few days, it still has capacity to be recorded on the credit file. It certainly does help the banks in determining creditworthiness but at the same time it will make it more difficult for a client who’s gone through a little bit of an upheaval in life … that puts them behind by two or three or four weeks before they catch up.”

How lenders will view these cases in future is yet to be determined, he said.

More On The Reduction In Home Ownership In Five Charts

The newly released Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report “Australia’s Welfare 2017“, is a distillation of data from various public sources, rather than offering new research.

However, the section on housing, reinforces the trends we have been highlighting in our recent posts.

Home ownership is still the most common tenure type in Australia, as it is in many other OECD countries. However, home ownership rates have tended to increase in many OECD countries over recent decades, unlike the Australian experience. Contributing to this trend overseas, at least in part, are changes in the characteristics of households (including population ageing, household structure, and income and education) and policy influences, such as mortgage market innovations (including the relaxation of deposit constraints, increasing home ownership rates among lower income households, and tax reliefs on mortgage debt financing).

Over the past 20 years, there has also been a major shift in home ownership trends across Australia. Nationally, the proportion of home owners without a mortgage has continued to fall, while the proportion of renters has increased.

The gap between household income and dwelling prices in Australia has widened over the past 3 decades, creating a barrier to home ownership for many. This gap has been fuelled by rapid house price growth, after the financial system was deregulated, with the total value of Australian housing estimated to be $6.5 trillion.

House prices in Australia have increased substantially in recent decades. The OECD noted in its biennial survey that they have reached unprecedented highs in Australia, increasing by 250% in real terms since the 1990s. The impact of higher house prices has been partially offset by lower mortgage interest rates, increased credit availability and changes in financial agency practices. These favourable lending conditions and low interest rates have encouraged buyers into the market, despite the growth in house prices themselves.

Research shows that Australia is experiencing generational change when it comes to home ownership, with younger households being principally affected by factors such as economic constraints, lifestyle choices and work–home preferences.

The steepest decline in home ownership rates across the 25 years to 2013–14 has been for people aged 25–34. This is typically the age at which first transitions into home ownership are made. But, fewer and fewer people in this age group are entering home ownership, with a 21 percentage point decline to just 39% in 2013–14 (compared with 60% in 1988–89). Home ownership rates for people aged 35–44 also fell, but not so much (12 percentage points). People aged over 65 (the age of retirement) were the only age group to increase their rate of home ownership and, even then, the increase was marginal.

Census data from 2016 became available just prior to the release of this publication and confirm this trend of diminishing home ownership rates among younger Australians. From 2006 to 2016 Census data reveal the greatest declines in home ownership have been in the 25–34 and 35–44 year age groups (from 51% down to 45% and from 68% to 62%, respectively).

In 2013, 71% of people born between 1957 and 1966 (mainly baby boomers), were financing a mortgage when aged 45–54. This trend is of particular concern as these households approach retirement without their home and asset base being paid off. For people looking to retire in the next 10 years, 45% of 55–64-year-olds in 2013 were still servicing a mortgage, compared with just 26% in 1982.