Would You Credit It? – New Loan Commitments Fall Again!

The ABS reported a further fall in new credit commitments in December 2022, across most categories. Even refinancing was down a little, though still elevated as people seek cheaper loan options.

First time buyers are continuing on the sidelines, with volumes falling here too.

But borrowing for holidays rose significantly.

Average loan sizes rose however, with Western Australia leading the way!

More signs of further home price falls ahead?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Rate Rise Endgame? With Tarric Brooker

Today’s afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker focuses on the question of whether inflation is really falling, or whether the markets are misreading the data streams.

You can follow along with Tarric’s slides at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-3rd-february/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Rate Hike Cycle End Game?

Overnight we saw the Bank of England and the ECB lift the target rate by 50 basis points.

The UK story appears to be one where inflation is easing a little though growth prospects remain weak into the medium term. In the ECB, inflation is perhaps more troublesome, and further rate rises are anticipated. But both are seen by the market to be the peak of this raising cycle (though with risks to the upside).

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Disinflation Has Started But We Have More Work To Do, Says The FED!

The FED lifted by the expected 25 basis points overnight. In the press conference he was still underscoring the need to strangle inflation but was also sanguine on the markets – which traders took as a positive sign.

That said, the disconnect between the FED and the markets continues, suggesting further short-term strength, before reality sets in, or the FED really backflips.

Disinflation is now the new watch word!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The RBA Says The Pain Time Is Coming!

Evidence provided by the RBA to Parliament yesterday underscores the $350 billion of mortgages across some 800,000 facilities which are expected to reset from fixed (~2% interest rates) to ~6% variable rates in 2023.

This could have a significant impact on households and their spending patterns to say nothing of rising mortgage stress.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Mapping Home Price Falls…

I caught up with the developer behind Spachus – a visual mapping tool that tracks home prices across the main areas of Australia. We chat about the philosophy behind the approach, which is powered by data from Domain, and we also demo the functionality (which is continuing to evolve).

https://www.spachus.com/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Here Comes Yet More Home Price Falls!

The latest data from Core Logic confirmed more home price falls across both capital cities and the regions. Hobart and Brisbane are hit hardest, and regional areas are hanging on a little better. But even Perth and Adelaide are now going down.

And latest forecasts from CBA are still talking about more falls. Unless we see forms of Government intervention, such as APRA cutting the 3% buffer, the RBA cutting rates, or more fiscal incentives.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live 8pm Sydney Tonight: Investing Now With Damien Klassen

https://youtube.com/live/VxPRZxt68Pg

https://youtube.com/live/VxPRZxt68Pg

Join me for a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the current market movements and what might be ahead.

You can ask a question live!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/