"Intelligent Insight"
Will the markets fade from their January start, signalling another bear market? Well Morgan Stanley says yes, as reported earning margins are getting squeezed.
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The latest credit data from the RBA and APRA, and retail from the ABS provides indicators of easing trends across the economy..
We look at the latest figures.
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In our latest show, Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I look at listings numbers and compare them with the past couple of years – what we see is different from what the MSM is saying. We also look in detail at the Blacktown property which sold, despite having significant issues with a missing DA, and the possible consequences. And we consider the latest property market fix from our government. What could possibly go wrong?
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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My latest reflections on the problems facing prospective first-time buyers, as borrowing power is shrinking faster than prices, and expenditure measures work again being able to get into the market.
Some are hoping for rates cuts soon, but that I doubt, though it is possible APRA will reduce the 3% buffer for some minor relief.
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Things remain in interesting territory for now as leading indicators are all over the show, and many are betting against the FED which has indicated it is not ready to even consider cutting interest rates any time soon, meantime the US Treasury may have other ideas…
U.S. Treasury yields a year from now are forecast to trade sharply lower than the level expected by bond strategists polled by Reuters just one month ago, underscoring how much financial markets have diverged this year from the central bank’s view.
While the U.S. economy grew at an annualised 2.9% in the final quarter of last year, it is clearly losing momentum. Market traders and policymakers differ on the severity of the coming downturn, as well as the likely policy response.
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
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The ABS Released their latest Producer Prices Indexes today. Contains a range of producer price indexes in the Australian economy, comprising mining, manufacturing, construction and services industries.
Final demand (excluding exports) rose 0.7% this quarter and rose 5.8% over the past twelve months.
These are intermediate price rises which will flow into inflation later suggests that in some sectors like construction, costs are set to rise further.
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It is unbelievable that ASIC has started 2023 with an extraordinary attack on the Federal Parliament on the eve of a major inquiry about to examine ASIC’s investigation and enforcement performance.
Earlier this week, we had an extraordinary attack by ASIC on the Federal Parliament’s system of oversight.
Both outgoing Commissioner Sean Hughes and ASIC Chairman Longo has attacked Parliament’s oversight as inefficient and waste time!
ASIC will be appearing before Senate Estimates either on 15 or 16 February 2023, so this will be the next set of potential fireworks with Senators.
Senator Bragg and the Senate Economics References Committee has extending the deadline from Friday 3 February 2023 to Tuesday, 28 February 2023. Almost 4 weeks for submission relating to the ASIC Inquiry.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/ASICinvestigation
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The Bank Of Canada lifted rates by a further 25 basis points overnight, to 4.5%, and they continue QT. But they say they will hold now and pause to assess the impact of the rises.
In addition, they will start to publish minutes of their discussions, and also will hold losses on their accounts, rather than sending them back to Government.
Important signals which other Central Banks are likely to emulate and its worth noting how much lower rates in Australia are thanks to a series of lower hikes in Australia. Yet here, inflation was reported as higher than expected yesterday – perhaps we need higher rates here?
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Stronger than expected data from the ABS today increases the likelihood of a cash rate hike from the RBA next month. The moving parts were all over the shop, warped by the addition and removal of various Government support programmes and holiday travel and spend.
No discretionary remains very high, and more costs will flow from higher wages. This may not be over as soon as many expect.
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The latest from our surveys relating to households in Regional areas versus Suburban and City areas with a focus on the use of branches, and access to cash.
We find that regional areas are much heavier users of branches and cash, relative to other areas – and Canberra in particular.
This may well explain why those based in the ACT are so far removed from the real issues faced every day by regional households and businesses.
Time to get the Senate to start their review, as I discussed with Robbie Barwick in my live show recently. https://youtu.be/OijlQNTVwtU
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