Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another outing for our Property Insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the latest numbers, trends and market movements.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market update we as always start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia. Markets have started to look through the recession fears it seems, banking on the Fed slowing its rake hikes, and reversing later in 2023.
Yet the signals are still mixed, and earnings are clearly under pressure in many market sectors. But it does seem to me to be a question about seeing the wood for the trees. The bigger trend on markets still is pointing lower, despite the short term moves higher. We are not, I think out of the woods yet… remembering Central Banks over nearly 20 years have tried to engineer growth through massive stimulation and debt, and economies have been distorted beyond belief. As support is removed, asset values are still over done, and the cost of debt rises.
The Dow cut losses to close higher Friday, as investors bought the early-day dip in banks following a string of better-than-expected results, though concerns about a weaker economy linger. In the end the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their highest levels in a month on Friday, leaving the S&P 500 up 4.2% so far in 2023.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.7% and the Dow rose 2%. The Nasdaq increased 4.8% in its biggest weekly percentage gain since Nov. 11. The CBOE Volatility index -Wall Street’s fear gauge -closed at a one-year low. The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:15 US Markets
4:10 Consumer Sentiment
5:59 US Dollar
7:05 Oil
7:30 Best Stocks From Goldman
10:30 Europe
12:55 Global Growth Slowing
14:00 Gold
14:15 Asia
15:35 Australia
18:30 Crypto SEC Action
20:00 Bitcoin
20:25 Summary and Conclusion
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ABS finally released their November 2022 New Lending stats today. Overall new loan commitments fell 3.7% in the month, and apart from refinancing, which hit a record, all other loan categories dropped to levels which in some cases were below pre-COVID levels.
First time buyers were hit hard.
More signals of a falling property market ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
US CPI came out pretty much as expected, with headline rates falling, thanks to significant falls in gas (petrol) prices at the pumps, despite rises in food and shelter costs.
The markets lapped this up sending the indices mainly higher. along with gold, while bond yields and the US dollar slid.
However, Fed officials were out in force saying rates need to run higher for longer, so once again out of step with market expectations.
Next signal will be quarterly earnings from Friday. Still more volatility ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my recent live discussion about my latest modelling and research. We had our postcode engine online.
Original show here: https://youtu.be/6e-_h-DYeYU
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest incentives for NSW first time buyers, the latest from China as people there vote with their feet on property, the numbers, and of course a special chat about underquoting.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Any incoming data requires interpretation to make sense. And the truth is, factors like recency bias, expectations, and hopium can all influence how news is interpreted, and decisions made. We saw this on Friday when US markets read the data as signs of a slowing economy, and immediately went to the FED easing rate rises, despite earlier news that they are keeping at the rate rising until inflation is crimped. Treasury yields fell sharply as investors continued to price in the step down in the pace of rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting next month.
But I think the central bank will need to see further slowing of price increases in the December inflation report, due out next week, before deciding whether to slow its next rate hike. It raised rates 50 basis points in December.And future earnings expectations are likely overdone for now, so perhaps markets were one sided in their interpretation of the data. In the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting [released] this week, it was unanimous among members of the FOMC group that they are going to keep interest rates high all year long. We will see.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:30 Data is not Neutral
1:30 US Jobs Report and Macro
3:40 US Markets
7:40 Oil Down
10:20 Gas Down
12:35 Europe
14:00 China and Asia
18:00 “N” Shaped Recovery
19:00 Australian Market
20:19 Gold too high?
21:40 Crypto Bearish
23:25 Summary and Close
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited edition of my recent live show, where I discussed the outlook for 2023 investing with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments At Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My first 2023 Rant with Edwin Almeida, our Property Insider. Edwin takes a look at the latest numbers, and tables his suggestions for what will happen in this potentially prickly year!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Stock markets are down, superannuation funds diminished, and property prices sliding as Chris Joye’s Latest missive shows. So, the answer to my question is probably no, unless you are a politician still receiving a generous pay rise, or a high-flying executive or you are working in high demand areas like information technology or finance, or perhaps construction. And those in the public sector are most likely to be saying no even louder.
The Australian Institute in November said that Australian workers are about to have twelve years of real wages growth wiped out in 3 years as the The Reserve Bank’s November Statement on Monetary Policy revealed just how badly Australian workers are being hit by the current weak growth in wages and fast rising inflation.
In August the Reserve Bank was anticipating that wages in the 12 months to December this year would rise at 3.0%. This has now been increased to 3.1%. That would suggest a better situation for workers, but unfortunately, the RBA has increased its estimate for inflation for the same period from the 7.8% it had in August to now 8.0%. That represents a real wage fall of 4.54% compared to its estimate in August of 4.45%.
All up the new estimates out to the end of 2024 suggest that real wages by December 2024 will be 2.2% lower than they were in June this year. That is again worse than the 1.8% fall estimated in August.
But comparing real wages from June this year misses out on the massive falls that have already occurred. By the end of 2024 the Reserve Bank now estimates that real wages will be some 5.4% below where they were in March 2020 just before the pandemic occurred.
It means that at the end of 2023 workers will on average only be able to buy the same amount of items and services with their wage as they were 15 years earlier in December 2008.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
