Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The latest from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we at the latest from the markets, listings and from China. Things are getting interesting….
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. In this week’s market update we look across the main markets to see what has been happening. Are the markets set for further falls as we approach year’s end?
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:00 US Macro
4:20 US Markets
6:45 Oil
11:34 Gold
12:25 Europe And UK
14:45 Asia
16:42 China Macro
23:15 Australia
26:08 Crypto
29:15 Conclusion And Close
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
So the FED hiked again, and lifted the expected terminal rate to above 5% with the majority of board members agreeing this this projection.
So, the markets and the FED are now not on the same page, with traders still betting on lower rates during 2023.
In addition, a slowing growth rate and higher unemployment means future earnings will be lower, suggesting that markets are over optimistic.
Things are as they say, complicated.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Cameron who recently republished his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”.
This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins
‘You’ll be shocked at how far the Mates have their hand in your pocket.’ – Nicholas Gruen
Australia has become one of the most unequal societies in the Western world, when just a generation ago it was one of the most equal. This is the story of how networks of Mates have come to dominate business and government, robbing ordinary Australians.
Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.
Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information-sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia and how we have fallen behind other countries in combating it.
https://www.bigw.com.au/product/rigged-by-cameron-murray-and-paul-frijters/p/235646
We also discuss housing policy and economics in general.
Dr Cameron K. Murray is a Research Fellow in the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney and an economist specialising in property and urban development, environmental economics, rent-seeking and corruption. Professor Paul Frijters teaches at the London School of Economics and was previously Professor of Health Economics at the University of Queensland.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in the rental sector, the latest listing numbers, and the latest from our We-Chat chatters…
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with the CEO of BTC Markets to discuss the broader perspectives on Crypto in the light of FTX.
https://www.btcmarkets.net/about-us
Perhaps we should be careful not to put the baby out with the bathwater!
“Our vision is to build the digital financial infrastructure for the future. We are moving forward with that overarching and audacious strategy and can clearly see how this will roll out.” Caroline Bowler CEO, BTC Markets
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We look at the action on the markets, the $80 trillion-dollar black hole in the financial system, and why Oil is so weak. All ahead of the FED next week who are expected to push rates higher – as recession risks grow.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:35 Stronger PPI
5:10 US Markets
6:18 Oil and Contango
9:09 Gold
9:30 Europe And Credit Suisse
13:05 Asia
14:39 Australia
18:40 Short Sellers Exit
20:20 Crypto
21: 55 $80 Tr Black Hole
27:00 Summary And Close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we walk through the key charts as we come to the end of 2022. So, what might 2023 look like?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Links to Tarric’s charts and recent articles:
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-9th-december?sd=pf
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/how-long-can-australians-keep-spending
With the latest rises in rates of 3% flowing through to the markets, we look at the impact, now and ahead with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:53 Housing Shortages and Stress
11:40 Interest Rates Moves
20:00 Fixed Rate Cliff Ahead
25:30 Credit Card Issuing Up
34:00 Refinancing Risks
40:30 Deposits
49:00 Financial Homework For The Holidays
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Given we now have mortgage rates 3% higher than at the start of the year – analysts are asking whether there are yet signs of mortgage portfolio risks in the banking system.
We certainly know that households cash flows are under pressure, from our own mortgage stress analysis, and Roy Morgan’s research on consumer confidence and their own mortgage stress analysis.
And we know that APRA’s 3% “Buffer” is being breached now, and it is even worse when they had set a 2% buffer earlier on.
But all that said, there is a lag between rate rises and delinquency – of months, if not years, so I would not be expecting much movement yet – that comes later. This also aligns with recent incoming data too.
For example, according to the latest Quarterly Statistics from APRA, the banks wrote fewer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages and decreased high debt-to-income lending over the September quarter, which the prudential regulator has welcomed.
They welcomed the fact that the banks have been “improving” the risk characteristics of their new residential mortgage lending, after finding that both high debt-to-income (DTI) and high LVR lending had reduced over the September quarter and suggested that the figures were largely promising given the strength of the banks’ profitability and liquidity positions as well as the reduction in “riskier” lending.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
