Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
My latest discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
From the We-chat chatters to the latest numbers and market commentary, we pick apart the property market. And Edwin lets us into more secrets of the Auctioneer.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Dale Webster from The Regional And Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party discuss the war on cash with me , and specifically the removal of branch and cash infrastructure, especially in regional areas.
https://www.theregional.com.au/post/bank-petition-chance-to-send-a-strong-message-to-canberra
The Regional is an independent news service for 37 per cent of Australia’s population (and growing)!
Dale has been tracking regional bank closures, despite the amount of cash still in use (and rising). Banks are casting a dangerous shadow.
But now there is a Petition EN4244 – Moratorium on regional bank closures and new inquiry in front of Parliament, and we have about 10 days to send a formal message to the Australian Parliament Petition. It closes on 6th October 2022.
https://www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/EN4244
Petition Reason
Private research shows regional Australia has lost 62 per cent of its banks since 1975, leaving just 1062 located mainly in clusters in larger centres. The number of towns and cities with a bank has shrunk from 1226 to 386: 575 towns that once had one or more major banks now have no form of bank at all. Another 146 towns are on the brink of complete loss of banking services, with just one major bank open. Last year, regional Australia lost 113 “big four” bank branches. Locations included 45 towns that were stripped of their last/only bank. Of these, 23 did not have a minor corporate, mutual or franchise bank to fall back on. If a similar 10 per cent cut to the branch network is made this year, 100 more branches will be lost in the next seven months: 50 towns will lose their last bank. This issue has not been looked at properly for 17 years. The Morrison Government set up a “taskforce into regional banking” as a pre-election stunt but only put representatives of the banking industry and its own politicians on it. Just one public meeting was held. Findings have not yet been delivered.
Petition Request
We therefore ask the House to impose an immediate moratorium on regional bank closures, launch a new inquiry to pick up from where Money too Far Away (1999) and Money Matters in the Bush (2004) left matters and pulp any reports that come from the coalition’s taskforce.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
So, after this latest rate hike, the Fed has now lifted its benchmark rate by 300 basis points, or 3% in just six months as the central bank accelerates policy to restrictive territory with the aim of slowing growth enough to make a meaningful dent in inflation.
“We can’t fail to do that,” he said, referring to the central bank’s mission against price growth. “That would be the thing that would be most painful for the people that we serve. We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t. What we need to do is get rates up to the point where we’re putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation. That’s what we’re doing. We haven’t given up the idea that we can have a relatively modest increase in unemployment.”
But critically, there were no signs of easing its push into restrictive territory as it battles to cool the embers of inflation.
“We’ve just moved into the very, very lowest level of what might be restrictive [territory],” Powell said in the press conference that followed the monetary policy statement. “In my view, there’s a ways to go.”
As a result, the Fed now sees its benchmark rate rising to 4.4% in 2022, above the 3.4% forecast in June, paving the way for further front-loading of rate hikes in the remaining two Fed meetings for the year and into 2023.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This past week was momentous, as Central Banks continued to lift rates in an attempt to crush inflation. A half dozen central banks, including in the United States, Britain, Sweden, Switzerland and Norway, delivered rate hikes this week to fight inflation, but it was the Fed’s signal that it expects high U.S. rates to last through 2023 that caught markets off guard.
“There had been some optimists out there saying that inflation may be coming under control, but the Fed effectively told them to sit down and shut up,” said David Russell, VP of market intelligence at TradeStation Group. “The Fed is trying to rip the band-aid off, trying to kill inflation while the jobs market is still strong.”
So finally, I think markets are waking up to what’s happening – no immediate pivot, higher rates for longer – and even if house prices or markets fall.
Goldman slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 3600 from 4300, which it had made in mid-August. “The expected path of interest rates is now higher than we previously assumed, which tilts the distribution of equity market outcomes below our prior forecast.”
“Based on our client discussions, a majority of equity investors have adopted the view that a hard landing scenario is inevitable, and their focus is on the timing, magnitude, and duration of a potential recession and investment strategies for that outlook.”
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy may be entering a “new normal” following disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. “We continue to deal with an exceptionally unusual set of disruptions,” Powell told business and community leaders at a Fed Listens event in Washington.
More than 90 Central Banks have now lifted rates, more than half by at least 75 basis points in one go this year. Last night the UK lifted by 0.5% and we look at their outlook, as more channel Paul Volcker who is widely acknowledged as the premier inflation fighter in Federal Reserve history.
When President Carter nominated him to be Fed Chair in July 1979, Volcker knew he faced a daunting task. Inflation was 11 percent, inflicting pain on financial markets and economic performance, and the second oil shock was unfolding. The Fed’s lack of inflation-fighting credibility had generated severe currency devaluation and a U.S. dollar crisis in late 1978.
At his confirmation hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, Volcker made his views clear. The Fed would have to clamp down on monetary policy to reverse the damaging upward price-wage cycle and wring out inflationary expectations. To his credit, Carter supported Volcker, even though he knew it may cause a recession, as did President Reagan.
Volcker took heat when the Fed sent rates soaring and the economy incurred back-to-back recessions.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited edition of live discussion about the current state of the markets with Tony Locatro, Perth based Investment Manager with Alto Capital. We will pick apart the latest movements and consider the implications for wealth protection and growth. Tony specialises in the small cap sector.
https://www.altocapital.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The logic I hear all the time is the RBA won’t let home prices fall too far because of the financial stability risk consequences. But that view might be plain wrong.
First the RBA has lifted rates by 2.25 percentage points since May, and markets expect the cash rate to reach 3.3 per cent by the end of the year, before peaking at 3.9 per cent in April next year. RBA governor Philip Lowe said last week there was a “narrow path to a soft landing” for the Australian economy, which would be difficult to stay on if global economic conditions deteriorated.
And reflect on this. Within a 24-hour period this week, there will be 16 central bank decisions including the US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Norway and Taiwan. Cumulatively, we could see over 500 bps in rate hikes across the globe this week.
In addition, Westpac came out yesterday with a revised forecast for the RBA Cash Rate, saying “We now expect the Reserve Bank Board to raise the cash rate by 50 basis points in October for a terminal rate of 3.6% by February (revised up from 3.35%)”. It seems the RBA is giving the green light to home price falls. Because if prices fall you would need a smaller mortgage (even if the interest rates were higher). Let that sink in.
Those who are arguing the RBA won’t be prepared to let home prices fall very far, take note!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
My Monday chat with Edwin, which covers the latest numbers of property listings in Sydney, and our discussion is packed with insights about the market, and potential future trajectory. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
As foreshadowed, we are now seeing the sharp reversal in asset prices, which were driven through the roof due to ultra-low interest rates, central bank quantitative easing, and government support through COVID plus huge debt growth.
Of course, the recent gains were largely spurious, and a correction was always going to come – hopefully some watching our shows are best prepared for this process (which will take some time), but be clear wealth will be destroyed across property, shares, bonds, metals and crypto.
No surprise then that U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, tumbling to two-month lows as a warning of impending global slowdown from FedEx hastened investors’ flight to safety at the conclusion of a tumultuous week. The session also marked the monthly options expiry, which occurs on the third Friday of every month. Options-hedging activity has amplified market moves this year, contributing to heightened volatility.
All three major U.S. stock indexes slid to levels not touched since mid-July, with the S&P 500 closing below 3,900, a closely watched support level and suffering its worst weekly percentage plunge since June.
“It’s been a tough week. It feels Halloween came early” said David Carter, managing director at JPMorgan in New York. “We are facing in this toxic brew of high inflation, high interest rates and low growth, which isn’t good for stock or bond markets.”
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA was interrogated by Parliament today regarding its monetary policy stance and interest rates. But it was all a bit pointless as really the Federal Reserve sets interest rates in the US, but effectively also for the entire world, given the fact that the US dollar behaves as the reserve currency.
Persistently high inflation in the United States and elsewhere has forced the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates, giving the dollar a significant yield advantage that has triggered a rampaging rally against its major global peers. That will put pressure on the RBA.
Eventually, the Fed’s actions will come back to bite it and the US. By then all the many trillions of dollars of stimulus work done during the pandemic will have been unwound. What a phenomenal waste of time, money and effort.
The fallout on the FED’s myopia will be felt more in other countries, including Australia, which means we are on the end of the see-saw driven by the US. This is soft power at its worse, transmitted to a monetary system which is built to favour one nation over the rest.
The question is of course whether this will change. Without major reform it will not, not least in recognition of fact that many international institutions such as the IMF, WEF and BIS are strongly aligned to the interests of the US. So The Monetary Arms Race Is Here.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
