The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. In this week’s market update we look across the main markets to see what has been happening. Are the markets set for further falls as we approach year’s end?
CONTENTS 0:00 Start 0:15 Introduction 1:00 US Macro 4:20 US Markets 6:45 Oil 11:34 Gold 12:25 Europe And UK 14:45 Asia 16:42 China Macro 23:15 Australia 26:08 Crypto 29:15 Conclusion And Close
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Well clearly most central banks got the 50-basis point hike memo, as following the Fed yesterday, with the Bank of England, the ECB and The Swiss Central Bank all hikes their rates by 0.5%. Markets reacted with significant falls, as the higher for longer mantra is threatening future earning, while Treasury yields fell across the curve. This all does put the RBA out of line given its recent 25-basis point rises and suggests we in Australia are behind the ball – significantly. Hey, but then of course Australia is different – right?
U.S. stock indexes finished sharply lower on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its biggest daily decline in over three months, as investors continued to digest tough talk from the Federal Reserve on inflation that revived concerns about a potential U.S. recession.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he saw “good news” in UK inflation figures that ticked down from a 41-year high, but there was a concern that consumer prices could leap again and that the central bank has more to do to prevent a wage-price spiral. Speaking after policy makers lifted their key rate a half point to 3.5%, the highest since 2014, Bailey said the risk is that inflation sticks around longer that the BOE is anticipating.
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So the FED hiked again, and lifted the expected terminal rate to above 5% with the majority of board members agreeing this this projection. So, the markets and the FED are now not on the same page, with traders still betting on lower rates during 2023.
In addition, a slowing growth rate and higher unemployment means future earnings will be lower, suggesting that markets are over optimistic.
Things are as they say, complicated.
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The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We look at the action on the markets, the $80 trillion-dollar black hole in the financial system, and why Oil is so weak. All ahead of the FED next week who are expected to push rates higher – as recession risks grow.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start 0:15 Introduction 1:35 Stronger PPI 5:10 US Markets 6:18 Oil and Contango 9:09 Gold 9:30 Europe And Credit Suisse 13:05 Asia 14:39 Australia 18:40 Short Sellers Exit 20:20 Crypto 21: 55 $80 Tr Black Hole 27:00 Summary And Close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We look at the action on the markets, the $80 trillion-dollar black hole in the financial system, and why Oil is so weak. All ahead of the FED next week who are expected to push rates higher – as recession risks grow.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start 0:15 Introduction 1:35 Stronger PPI 5:10 US Markets 6:18 Oil and Contango 9:09 Gold 9:30 Europe And Credit Suisse 13:05 Asia 14:39 Australia 18:40 Short Sellers Exit 20:20 Crypto 21: 55 $80 Tr Black Hole 27:00 Summary And Close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we walk through the key charts as we come to the end of 2022. So, what might 2023 look like?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
With the latest rises in rates of 3% flowing through to the markets, we look at the impact, now and ahead with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar.
CONTENTS 0:00 Start 0:53 Housing Shortages and Stress 11:40 Interest Rates Moves 20:00 Fixed Rate Cliff Ahead 25:30 Credit Card Issuing Up 34:00 Refinancing Risks 40:30 Deposits 49:00 Financial Homework For The Holidays
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
Given we now have mortgage rates 3% higher than at the start of the year – analysts are asking whether there are yet signs of mortgage portfolio risks in the banking system.
We certainly know that households cash flows are under pressure, from our own mortgage stress analysis, and Roy Morgan’s research on consumer confidence and their own mortgage stress analysis.
And we know that APRA’s 3% “Buffer” is being breached now, and it is even worse when they had set a 2% buffer earlier on.
But all that said, there is a lag between rate rises and delinquency – of months, if not years, so I would not be expecting much movement yet – that comes later. This also aligns with recent incoming data too.
For example, according to the latest Quarterly Statistics from APRA, the banks wrote fewer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages and decreased high debt-to-income lending over the September quarter, which the prudential regulator has welcomed.
They welcomed the fact that the banks have been “improving” the risk characteristics of their new residential mortgage lending, after finding that both high debt-to-income (DTI) and high LVR lending had reduced over the September quarter and suggested that the figures were largely promising given the strength of the banks’ profitability and liquidity positions as well as the reduction in “riskier” lending.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Are There Signs Of Bank Mortgage Portfolio Stress Yet?
