The APRA monthly banking statistics for the ADI’s to June 2015 were released today. Home investment lending does not show signs of cooling, so this explains the recent more overt pressure being applied by the regulators. We will look at home lending first. The banks grew their lending book by 1.33% in the month to 1.37 trillion. Remember this is the stock of loans. RBA reported total loans were $1,481 bn, the difference being the non-banks.
Within that, owner occupied loans were down 1.24% and investment loans were up 5.99%. Investment loans were worth $507 bn. But this is due to a massive adjustment in the data relating to ANZ. Between May and June, the APRA ANZ data shows their owner occupied loans dropped by $16.2 bn and their investment book grew by $23 bn. We think this helps to explains ANZ’s announcement earlier. Clearly some loans have been reclassified between May and June, so this distorts the overall market picture. APRA’s report on revisions does not really help us. That said, here is the detailed analysis.
CBA has the largest share of owner occupied loans, with 27.36% of the market. Westpac has 30% of all investment property lending. ANZ had 15.12% of owner occupied loans, and 16.46% of investment loans (under the revised data in June).
The portfolio movements May to June show the ANZ swing, and not much else!
The APRA speed bump of 10% is well and truly exceeded this month because of the swing in ANZ. The market grew at an annualised rate of over 15% and many large and small players are well above the threshold – ANZ was at 47% – but this is because of the adjustment. The true growth rate is lower. But, no visible impact of the APRA guidelines so far.
For comparison purposes, here is the data for owner occupied loans – and though no formal speed limit is in place, we have shown the 10% benchmark. The market grew at 4.3% in the past 12 months. The true rate is higher.
Turning to deposits, little change in the month, total deposits were down just a tad to $1.83 trillion. Little movement in relative shares.
On the credit card portfolios, there was a rise of 0.4% in balances outstanding, to $41.5 bn. No significant change in the relative share.
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