Gold reached and briefly surpassed $4,000 per ounce in early October 2025 which traded below $2,000 just two years ago, with returns that now outstrip those for equities this century. Gold has jumped more than 50% this year. This new record is both a market milestone and a signal of deeper macro‑political stress and importantly reflects a broad flight to safe assets amid concurrent geopolitical shocks, policy uncertainty, and weaker dollar momentum.
The surge past $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, is driven by global economic anxiety, political instability, and a growing loss of faith in traditional financial systems. Analysts expect further upside, but warn of volatility. While Central Banks were in earlier, now Investor behavior shows a shift toward conviction-based gold holdings, with a mix of physical bullion, ETFs, and options.
Ahead, it could go higher still, with Goldman Sachs picking $4,300 – $4,900 by Dec 2026 although the Bank of America warns of “uptrend exhaustion” and a possible correction.
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Markets are shrugging off bad news, and heading for the stars, so will we see a melt-up into the end of the year, or are concerns over the debasement trade, the US close down and the AI mutual investments going to spoil the party? Join Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth and myself as we dig into the critical issues.
Damien discussed his new updated AI Special Report. Here is the link: https://nucleuswealth.com/-dfa-ai-report
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A big outing this week, following the 1st October First Buyer changes, and the myopic reporting in the MSM. What are the real stories we should be exploring? Edwin and I dive deep into the mire…
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Despite the media hype around the price inflating first home owner incentives, there is a broader story to tell about household finances and the impact unaffordable housing and high rents are having on society.
So in this show, we examine the latest media floss, as well as the latest from our household surveys and modelling which examines specifics at a post code level, and which areas of the country are being impacted most significantly.
This is a precursor to a live deep dive show we will run on 14th October 2025, so if there is a specific post code you would like me to examine then, put it in the comments below.
Of course you can grab the full monthly series by subscribing via Patreon.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, and cover commodities and crypto along the way.
Today we ask whether the rising popularity of bitcoin and gold reflects deeper economic anxieties. And with US Government now shut down while market has historically shrugged them off some strategists said that a longer shutdown could create more uncertainty for investors and for Fed policymakers. Indeed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned in a CNBC interview on Thursday that this shutdown could hurt the economy more than those in the past.
But ahead, traders will though now look towards the third-quarter reporting season which will kick off the week beginning October 13.
All up, JPMorgan has officially proclaimed the “debasement trade,” as retail investment demand for gold and Bitcoin has picked up since President Donald Trump launched his global tariffs and trade war in April. And of course, many Central Banks have been accumulating gold as they diversifying away from the U.S. dollar and into gold since 2022, after the U.S. government weaponized the dollar in an attempt to isolate Russia for invading Ukraine, so this is not new news. Indeed, official global gold reserves have risen by 1,000 tonnes in the last three years, reaching their highest levels in decades. This summer, gold became the second-largest reserve asset, surpassing the euro.
That said, US stocks touched record highs on Friday amid another round of big-ticket artificial intelligence deals and partnerships, bucking the prospect of a prolonged shutdown and a gloomy reading on business activity. Treasuries and the dollar slid. fuelled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns. Volatility though is still well contained, according to the VIX.
Investors have mostly shrugged off the shutdown, the 15th since 1981, but on Friday it meant traders weren’t getting probably the single most-watched piece of market-moving economic data – monthly U.S. payrolls figures. Wall Street didn’t seem bothered, with all three major stock indices hitting new record highs, pushing MSCI’s main 47-country index of world shares up 1.66% for the week and 18% year to date, while Europe had its best week since April, with the STOXX 600 up another 2.87% across the 5 days and up more than 12% year to date. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.4% after hitting an all-time high of 6,747.18 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%, pulling back a touch from a record peak of 22,925.43 points struck in early trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also jumped to a record high of 47,000.10 points, and wasstill up up at the close.
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Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
There was, in my view some significant misdirection contained in the Reserve Bank’s recently released Financial Stability Review, released on Thursday, which they say provides a comprehensive assessment of the health and resilience of Australia’s financial system. All up they say that Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate a period of elevated global uncertainty, with largest risks to financial stability as coming from abroad, including High and rising government debt levels in major economies, Stretched asset valuations and leverage in global markets and heightened geopolitical and operational risks. Superannuation funds are especially exposed, they warn.
On the other hand, the RBA finds that Australian households, businesses and banks are well placed to weather most shocks because they say most households with mortgages are keeping up with repayments and have built savings buffers and in addition, many businesses have established financial buffers.
The Australian banks they say continue to maintain high levels of capital and liquidity, positioning them to support the economy through potential disruptions, although the Review also underscores the importance of financial institutions maintaining prudent lending standards and strengthening operational resilience.
It is quite convenient to sheet the main risks facing the economy coming from international sources, because of course, the RBA and Government for that matter have a perfect alibi should the economic black swans which seem to be swarming, arrive.
But we should ask how credible their analysis of local conditions is, remembering that we have a rolling survey of households and businesses which seems to tell a rather different story, with some doing really well, bur other still under the gun. In fact on Sunday I will release my latest analysis for September, which shows mortgaged households a little less stressed than peak, but those in the rental sector still close to peak cash flow stress.
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Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Judging by all the spruiking, property markets are about to boom, and crowds of first time buyers are crowding in. But actually, the real story is rather different not least because of the real incomes required to service a 95% loan. So today we examine this, and also the regional property question.
Although the high-level data might suggest regional properties are booming we deep dive in post code 2515, God’s own country around Thirroul and Austinmer in NSW. The on the ground data tells a different story.
From this analysis we highlight three important lessons!
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Housing affordability is getting worse, home prices continued to trek higher in September, according to the latest data from Cotality. The recent 3 rate cuts have put a rocket on price movements, pumped by high migration demand, investor demand, and from first time buyers, demand there will be pumped further of course as the enhance Government scheme starts today promoting a headline in the AFR ‘Unprecedented demand’ on day one of first home buyer scheme.
The Government is talking a big game in terms of housing affordability but words and figures differ, and even Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock on Tuesday said government policies to expand housing supply would take more than two years to have an impact.
Just first a point of clarification, markets are still behaving differently, with markets in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin and Perth subbed “at peak” by Cotality, while markets are still down in Hobart, off 9.5% from its peak in March 2022, Canberra down 3.98% from its May 2022 peak, and Melbourne down 2.7% from its March 2022 peak, when prices responded to the ultra lower interest rates and COVID era Government stimulus.
Prices have risen a silly 82.7% in Perth over the past 5 years (though recall that before that they had fallen significantly), 80.1% in Brisbane, and 77.2% in Adelaide, putting many locals out of the market. Sydney prices are up 37.9% over that same 5-year period, whereas in Melbourne its just 17.5%. Remember these are not inflation adjusted. In real terms, Sydney is flat and Melbourne is well under water.
This is why it is important to go granular, rather than take high-level aggregate data points.
Cotality says Australian housing markets are gathering strength as we head further into spring, with September marking the strongest monthly gain for national dwelling values since October 2023. The Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) recorded a 0.8% increase in September, powered by robust growth conditions across the capital cities, where values rose 0.9% over the month. On a quarterly basis, the national HVI increased 2.2%, up from a 1.5% lift in the June quarter and double the 1.1% increase seen over the three months to March. In dollar terms, the September quarter rise was equivalent to a $18,215 increase in the median dwelling value.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil on Wednesday pointed to private Treasury advice that the program was expected to increase house prices by 0.5 per cent overall nationally over six years. Conveniently, though Treasury estimates released by the government omit the short-term price impact which allowed Albo to say “They suggest a very small increase, but what it will do is to allow more young people to get into home ownership,” Bit of spin there.
Borrowers will still have to undergo credit tests from banks, meaning not all borrowers with a deposit as low as 5 per cent will automatically receive a loan, despite the impression the government gives.
So all up, as discussed over the past couple of weeks, on my shows, there are big questions for prospective first time buyers as they chase prices higher, stoked by a programme which is meant to help housing affordability. This does not compute- words and figures differ!
This is an edit of our live show in which we discussed the RBA decision today, and continued our series about the new First Time Buyer Government scheme to start 1 October. I was joined by Aaron Scott from bRight Agent. There are some important factors to consider, which potentially have significant implications for people and the economy.
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
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Another Rant, this week, with a new mike for Edwin as we dive deep into the murky waters of the property market. From off-market deals, to high-rise for oldies, we pick apart the latest news, and underscore an important warning!
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
