Digital Finance Analytics has released the January 2018 update of our Household Financial Confidence Index, using data from our rolling 52,000 household surveys.
The news is not good, with a further fall in the composite index to 95.1, compared with 95.7 last month. This is below the neutral setting, and is the eighth consecutive monthly fall below 100.
This result highlights the ongoing disconnect between business confidence, and consumers who are still reeling from rising costs of living, flat incomes and high debt.
Across the age bands, there was a small rise in those older than 50 years, but younger households, from 20 -50 all tracked lower.
There was a significant drop in confidence in Victoria, which has now been overtaken again by New South Wales as the most confident state. Confidence fell in South Australia and Queensland, whilst there was little change in Western Australia, which recovered somewhat earlier in the year.
Household’s property footprint impacts confidence levels significantly, with those who are not property active and so living in rented accommodation sitting significantly below those who own property. Owner occupied property holders saw a small uplift this month, reflecting the lower refinancing rates available, and more first time buyers. However, property investors, traditionally the more bullish, continues to languish, dragging the whole index lower.
The segmental scorecard shows that whilst job security rose a little, pressure from large levels of debt rose further, with 44% of households less comfortable than a year ago, and only 3% more comfortable. Pressure on savings continues, with lower returns on deposits, and more dipping into savings to pay the bills. 46% of households were less comfortable with their savings, compared with a year ago, and 4% only were more comfortable.
Costs of living pressures are very real, with 73% of households recording a rise, up 1.5% from last month, and only 3% a fall in their living costs. A litany of costs, from school fees, child care, fuel, electricity and rates all hit home.
On the other hand, only 1% of households records a real rise in incomes compared with a year ago, while 50% said their real incomes had been eroded, and 45% stayed the same. More evidence that incomes are rising more slowly than costs. Those employed in the private sector are particularly hard hit, with many recording no pay rises for the past 2 years.
Finally, household net worth is under pressure for some, as property prices slide, and savings are being eroded (despite high stock market prices). Whilst 58% said wealth had improved, 15% recorded a fall, and 23% said there was no change. A further fall in property prices was the overwhelming concern of those holding real-estate, with more than half now expecting a fall in the months ahead. This expectation is already impacting their spending patterns, and have reduced their prospect of buying more property.
So, overall we see the ongoing slide in household financial confidence, and there is nothing on the horizon which is likely to change momentum. We expect wages growth to remain contained, and home prices to slide, while costs of living pressures continue to grow.
By way of background, these results are derived from our household surveys, averaged across Australia. We have 52,000 households in our sample at any one time. We include detailed questions covering various aspects of a household’s financial footprint. The index measures how households are feeling about their financial health. To calculate the index we ask questions which cover a number of different dimensions. We start by asking households how confident they are feeling about their job security, whether their real income has risen or fallen in the past year, their view on their costs of living over the same period, whether they have increased their loans and other outstanding debts including credit cards and whether they are saving more than last year. Finally we ask about their overall change in net worth over the past 12 months – by net worth we mean net assets less outstanding debts.
We will update the results again next month.
