More households are feeling the pinch in the run up to Christmas according to our latest research and as demonstrated in the results to the end of November 2024, which we look at today.
We start with an overview of “financial stress”, defined in cash flow terms, then look at mortgage, rental, investor and overall stress across the country, as we dive into the top postcodes and consider the future scenarios for interest rates.
If you want a deep dive into a specific post code, drop it into the comments below, and I will make a subsequent show including the granular data I hold.
The full detailed set of data is available via our Patreon programme: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
More households are feeling the pinch in the run up to Christmas according to our latest research and as demonstrated in the results to the end of November 2024, which we look at today.
We start with an overview of “financial stress”, defined in cash flow terms, then look at mortgage, rental, investor and overall stress across the country, as we dive into the top postcodes and consider the future scenarios for interest rates.
If you want a deep dive into a specific post code, drop it into the comments below, and I will make a subsequent show including the granular data I hold.
The full detailed set of data is available via our Patreon programme: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is an edited version of a live discussion as we explore the latest DFA modelling of Household Financial Stress. We will have the post code engine online, and given the higher for longer trends in interest rates, things are getting “interesting”!
You can ask a question live!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is an edited version of a live discussion about findings from my household surveys as we look at the financial impact of recent changes in tax, government support and costs. How are households coping, and where are the pressure points?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the findings from our surveys and models as we look at the latest in mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress across Australia. We will have our post code engine online so you can suggest specific post codes to examine.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Stressed: A Deep Dive Into The Latest Household Data
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the findings from our surveys and models as we look at the latest in mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress across Australia. We will have our post code engine online so you can suggest specific post codes to examine.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
In this show we look at a recent NSW survey on financial stress, discuss the RBA Governor’s recent comments about people having to sell their homes, and lay the foundation for our upcoming Tuesday live show (8pm Sydney) by looking at the latest from our surveys and modelling. The point to make is, there are important definitional and analytic differences, which the MSM gloss over, but which makes a huge difference to the true story about households financial status.
And mark you diary for for my live show where you can ask for a specific post code data point and ask a question live.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
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Those following the DFA channel will know we have been tracking the rise of mortgage stress in recent times, as the higher interest rates and prices bite while real incomes stalled. I have been listing some of those post codes, like Liverpool in Sydney or DonnyBrook in Melbourrne, where we have been measuring cash flow pressures on households building.
Of course, the banks have been extending and pretending, offering households the chance to extend the term of their loan, or go interest only for a period. Initially people who were over committed reached for this lifeline, but as the recent ASIC report said, this often just put off taking hard decisions about selling up while you can. Many households are making this call now, and I expect property listings to rise in the months ahead as a result.
However, up to now the number of mortgagee sales has been very low, first because of the extend and pretend strategy, second because some households do decide to sell before they are forced to and thanks to recent price rises get to replay the bank and move on. But eventually the mortgagee sales worm will turn, as interest rates stay higher for longer and as lenders, especially from the Non-Bank sector get tough.
But now we are seeing this discussed in the press, with Realestate.com.au reporting Millions of dollars worth of Aussie homes have been seized for mortgagee sales from McMansions to townhouses and inner city apartments as data shows 100 suburbs in trouble.
However, I think more accountability should be taken by the RBA for its poor monetary policy decisions, the government for pumping migration and lenders for lending way too much and the industry for frankly telling porkies. But at the end of the day, it is individual households who are caught in the vice, and are having to make hard decisions about their financial futures.
We will be releasing the next edition of our stress analysis in a few days, look out for that, but already I can see that the tax cuts and Government handouts are only providing limited short-term relief for some, so I effect more defaults in the months ahead.
I hate to be proved right on this, but I think I will be!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Those following the DFA channel will know we have been tracking the rise of mortgage stress in recent times, as the higher interest rates and prices bite while real incomes stalled. I have been listing some of those post codes, like Liverpool in Sydney or DonnyBrook in Melbourrne, where we have been measuring cash flow pressures on households building.
Of course, the banks have been extending and pretending, offering households the chance to extend the term of their loan, or go interest only for a period. Initially people who were over committed reached for this lifeline, but as the recent ASIC report said, this often just put off taking hard decisions about selling up while you can. Many households are making this call now, and I expect property listings to rise in the months ahead as a result.
However, up to now the number of mortgagee sales has been very low, first because of the extend and pretend strategy, second because some households do decide to sell before they are forced to and thanks to recent price rises get to replay the bank and move on. But eventually the mortgagee sales worm will turn, as interest rates stay higher for longer and as lenders, especially from the Non-Bank sector get tough.
But now we are seeing this discussed in the press, with Realestate.com.au reporting Millions of dollars worth of Aussie homes have been seized for mortgagee sales from McMansions to townhouses and inner city apartments as data shows 100 suburbs in trouble.
However, I think more accountability should be taken by the RBA for its poor monetary policy decisions, the government for pumping migration and lenders for lending way too much and the industry for frankly telling porkies. But at the end of the day, it is individual households who are caught in the vice, and are having to make hard decisions about their financial futures.
We will be releasing the next edition of our stress analysis in a few days, look out for that, but already I can see that the tax cuts and Government handouts are only providing limited short-term relief for some, so I effect more defaults in the months ahead.
I hate to be proved right on this, but I think I will be!
