RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Christopher Kent, spoke at the Bloomberg Breakfast today and gave a comprehensive, if myopic, summary of the current Australian economic position though the boom years, and into the current realignments. There was no discussion of the high household debt and the rapid rise in home prices. He concluded:
The pattern of adjustment of the Australian economy to the decline in the terms of trade and mining investment is generally consistent with what we had anticipated. However, the decline in the terms of trade was larger than expected. In response, there has been significant adjustment in a range of market ‘prices’ – including wages and the nominal exchange rate, although the exchange rate has depreciated a little less than otherwise given global developments. Monetary policy has also responded, with interest rates reduced to low levels. So while mining investment and nominal GDP growth have both been weaker than the forecasts of a few years ago and, more recently, inflation has been a bit weaker than expected, growth in the non-mining economy has picked up and been a bit better than earlier anticipated. Indeed, of late, real GDP growth has been a bit stronger and the unemployment rate a little lower than earlier forecast.
In many respects, the adjustment to the decline in mining investment and the terms of trade has proceeded relatively smoothly. The Australian economy has performed well compared to other advanced economies (Graph 11). Moreover, the drag on growth from declining mining investment is now waning and the terms of trade are forecast to remain around their current levels.
Graph 11
Of course our forecasts are subject to the usual range of uncertainty. But, given that commodity prices have increased substantially over the course of this year, some stability in the terms of trade from here on seems more plausible than it has for some time. Developments in China are likely to continue to have an important influence on commodity prices, given China’s role as both a major producer and consumer of many commodities. For this reason the outlook for the Chinese economy is a key source of uncertainty for the Australian economy.
If commodity prices were to stabilise around current levels, that would be a marked change from recent years. Also, the end of the fall in mining investment is coming into view. The abatement of those two substantial headwinds suggests that there is a reasonable prospect of sustaining growth in economic activity, which would support a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate. There is also a good prospect that the growth in wages and the rate of inflation will gradually lift over the period ahead. That’s what’s implied by our central forecasts.
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