Had a nice note from The Kouk today offering a wager on my home price call as featured in 60 Minutes yesterday. He did not disclose he was to make this offer public, whatever I decided to do!
Anyhow this was my reply.
Hi Stephen, thanks for your message. I appreciate the offer. However, I do not make bets, ever. A point of principle.
However, an alternative offer. Would you care to participate in a discussion on the subject of home prices, and where they may go – for my YouTube Channel? I have had Steve Keen on among others, but so far have not been able to get a coherent point of view around why prices will not fall as far or as fast. I would love to present a balanced set of discussions. I am of course data driven. My genuine wish is to foster open debate, not peddle a specific viewpoint.
My channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WalkTheWorldDFA
As you say, context is everything, and my scenario 4 – which is the one 60 minutes went with was predicated on the assumption that the US economy would flag (inverted yield curve and all) and this would lead to a global fall, throttling interbank lending, etc. etc.
I rate it 20%, and it is not my central scenario. My best call would be in the region of 15-20% from top, over 2-3 years, but with some risk of a worse outcome. Nine chose not to cover these alternatives, though I went through each in the recording… I believe 2019 will be the critical testing year one way or the other.
If this would be of interest, I can record via Skype, so it would be easy to set up. Let me know….
Anyhow, I appreciate your taking the time to message me, and we could certainly discuss your offer and my reasons why I did not take it up, during the show, if you like.
He declined my invite to debate the question. So, open to other “property bulls” to debate with me – on data please – so far no takers…
Always looking for good informed content. Wherever it may come from…
Hi Martin I enjoyed the way you called out The Kouk’s loaded dice bluff and attempted put down of you. He dared you to put your money where your mouth is. You dared him to put his mouth where his money is. You both declined. No prizes for guessing who came off second best. Oops Kouk.