The markets and analysts are all focussing on the potential for the FED to lift interest rates this year, perhaps 3 times, or significantly more. But actually, we think the FED’s balance sheet is where much of the action, and market attention should be. It indicated it may be ready to start raising interest rates, dial back on its bond-buying program, and engage in high-level discussions about reducing holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The process of reversing the trillions of dollars of pandemic bond purchases, or quantitative easing, is technical, wonky, and somewhat opaque.
“Interest rate hikes are yesterday’s news,” Morgan Stanley Managing Director Jim Caron told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. Caron said the “main thrust” of Fed policy will come from how it undoes the stimulus coming from its balance sheet.
Because of the massive amount of buying in response to the pandemic, the Fed owns about a third of both the Treasury and mortgage markets. If the idea for higher rates is to curb inflation, long-term rates won’t really rise until the Fed’s huge footprint diminishes, rendering rate increases on their own ineffective if bond markets aren’t speaking for themselves.
The latest weekly FED Total Assets (Less Eliminations) was released on Wednesday as reported by The St Louis Fed. Total Assets were $8.788 trillion, up by 0.26% this week, yes in the week when Powell underscored inflation was the battle now to be won (over against full employment), and that balance sheet reduction was on the cards.
“We’re mindful that the balance sheet is $9 trillion. It’s far above where it needs to be,” Powell told Congress in testimony on Tuesday. The question: How should the Fed time interest rate hikes with any balance sheet unwind? Does it matter?
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