A remarkable division has emerged between those calling we have passed the bottom in the current stock market cycle, and those who say we are right in the middle of a bear market rally which will peter out before a further, and significantly deeper fall ahead.
Why? Because on one hand recent results from many stocks have been pretty good, (though future performance is not guaranteed) while inflation some are thinking has peaked. Yet on the other hand, Central Banks are still lifting rates, and consumer confidence is tanking while home prices are easing. And inflation is still way over target.
So, who will be proved more right? In this week’s market review we will start in the US, go across to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, as well as touching on metals, oil and crypto.
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US stocks finished the week on solid footing, with traders assessing whether an inflation slowdown could soon make the Federal Reserve reduce the pace of its most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades and prevent a hard landing. Defying the crowd of sceptics who dubbed the rebound a bear-market rally, short-covering or unwinding of hedges, the S&P 500 notched its fourth straight week of gains — the longest winning run since November — with big tech leading gains on Friday.
The gauge has recouped half of its losses from January through June, topping the so-called 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. It’s now sitting about 1.5 per cent below its 200-day average — a threshold crossed by the Russell 2000 gauge of small caps.
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