The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one.
Now Payroll jobs data says the same.
The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with Single Touch Payroll (STP) enabled payroll and accounting software each time the employer runs its payroll. The ATO provides selected employer and job level data items from the STP system to the ABS to produce statistics.
And according to the ABS Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month.
I should say Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted and are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction, have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting.
So we should note that in each release, as more complete data are received, payroll job estimates are revised. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the end of the financial year and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.
That said, the ABS says “The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting.”
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