Data Dependence Equals Volatility! [Podcast]

Our normal weekend market update, as incoming data is all over the show. No wonder things are volatile!

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell on Friday and posted their second straight weekly losses, as hotter-than-expected U.S. producer prices data pushed Treasury yields higher and sank rate-sensitive megacap growth stocks. Being data dependent, means markets will be highly volatile over the northern summer.

Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, with the smallest annual increase in core inflation in nearly two years, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve is at the end of its rate hike cycle.

However, San Francisco Fed Bank President and CEO Mary Daly said that more progress is needed before she would feel comfortable the Fed has done enough to rein in inflation.

US producer prices picked up in July, primarily due to increases in certain service categories, highlighting the choppy nature of getting inflation back down to target.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the producer price index for final demand, as well as the core index which excludes food and energy, both rose by 0.3% in July, While those came in slightly more than forecast, downward revisions to the prior month tempered some of the strength.

Normalizing global supply chains, tepid demand abroad, and a broader shift in consumer spending toward services and away from goods have generally helped alleviate inflationary pressures at the producer level over the last year. But headwinds are building again as oil prices climb.

Service costs rose by the most in nearly a year, reflecting increases in categories including portfolio management, outpatient care and passenger transportation. Several categories from the PPI report, notably in health care, are used to calculate the personal consumption expenditures price gauge — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — that will be released later this month.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Data Dependence Equals Volatility! [Podcast]
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Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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