This is our weekly market update. As always we start in the US, cover oil and gold, as well as treasuries, and then move through Europe and Asia before we cover Australian developments and crypto. A succinct summary of the weeks events.
A searing late-year rally has brought the S&P 500 to a fresh 2023 closing high, as investors bet the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and the U.S. economy will remain resilient in the face of tighter monetary policy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the risks of hiking interest rates too much and slowing the economy more than necessary have become “more balanced” with the risks of not hiking enough to control inflation. He vowed to move “carefully” on interest rates.
Earlier this week Investor optimism about rate cuts surged after Fed Governor Christopher Waller – widely seen as a hawkish policymaker – flagged the possibility of lower interest rates in coming months if inflation continued to ease.
So, is the Fed is at risk of committing a major policy error if it begins to loosen monetary conditions too soon, which could see inflationary pressures begin to pick up again? If anything, the Fed has more room to raise interest rates than to cut them, presuming it follows the numbers. Indeed, U.S. government data released Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.2% annual rate in the third quarter amid surprisingly robust consumer spending.
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