It was a confusing day on the markets on Thursday as AI related Stocks drove higher on Nvida results, while weak purchasing managers index (PMI) readings from Australia and Japan, together with FED signals for higher rates for longer saw Asian traders favour the dollar, as business activity in both countries slowed through February.
NVIDIA Corporation rose as much as 10% in U.S. aftermarket trade after clocking stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings, while its revenue guidance for the current quarter was also above street estimates.
Gains in tech also saw the Nikkei reach an intraday record high, crossing levels last seen in 1989 before the unwinding of a massive speculative bubble through the 1990’s and 2000’s.
However, elsewhere most Asian currencies retreated on Thursday, while the dollar stemmed recent losses as a slew of signals from the Federal Reserve showed that the central bank was likely to keep interest rates high in the near-term.
The Australian dollar was flat as preliminary PMI data for February showed sustained weakness in business activity. The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI® Output Index* posted 51.8 in February, up from 49.0 in January. The latest reading signalled that private sector activity returned to growth for the first time in five months and at the fastest rate since April 2023. However, while Australia’s private sector activity improved midway into the first quarter, growth was driven solely by the service sector where service providers reported increased enquires from a widening of customer bases, supporting an expansion in output and employment.
However, in contrast, manufacturing new orders fell again, sending production down at the fastest rate since the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Manufacturers continued to see high interest rates and soft conditions dampening demand.
And combined with recent stronger-than-expected wage price index data, driven by a raft of negotiated settlements across both the private and public sectors, which were released on Wednesday, drove traders to pricing in a greater chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates higher for longer.
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