Compared to the weak RBA rate of 4.35%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, lifted earlier and higher, and has begun to cut rates as the New Zealand economy slipped into recession. Next week we will get the next RBNZ rate decision, and a new survey has show that although New Zealand business sentiment is improving a window has opened to allow a cut interest rates of 50 basis points. The RBNZ has forecast around 2.5% of rate cuts over a 2.5 year period.
The contrast with Australia is interesting, because the RBA has left rates at a lower rate trying to preserve the gains in employment, whereas the RBNZ lifted more aggressively and tipped the New Zealand economy into a recession. Neither outcome is great, showing the problem with blunt monetary policy tools.
In addition, the latest New Zealand migration stats reveals a sharp moderation in net overseas migration, a critical factor working against economic growth. And worse, a large number of citizens are emigrating from New Zealand, replaced by poorer migrants from developing nations according to Stats NZ. As a result, annual New Zealand’s population growth is slowing, which will moderate demand. And of course New Zealand’s economy is stuck in a protracted per capita recession and unemployment is rising fast.
All up, clearly more rate cuts are coming, and a period of falling prices – deflation – could well be on the cards. As a result, the RBNZ will need to front load those future rate cuts, so 50 basis points next week are highly likely.
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