This week we get a series of economic signals, as several countries will be delivering their latest figures. China’s inflation figures already surprised on the high side on Monday although they were still relatively modest at 1.5% year-on-year in March. But that still saw yields on China’s 10-year government bonds fall below U.S. Treasury yields for the first time in 12 years.
Later in the week, the U.S. and the U.K. will be reporting their inflation numbers. The U.S. is expected report that the pace of inflation in March rose at annual rate of 8.4%, a four-decade high. The conflict and its impact on supply chains, notably food, had not yet figured in CPI data, which was nonetheless already at 40-year highs. The probability of a US recession next year is now sitting at 40%.
And, the spotlight will also fall on the RBNZ, BoC, and ECB and their interest rate decisions. On Thursday the economic calendar will start with Australia’s employment numbers for March.
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