ANZ says job advertisements fell by 0.8% in July. This was the first decline since April and may reflect heightened uncertainty temporarily delaying the hiring plans of some employers. Annual growth in job ads has slowed to 6.9% from 8.0% in the previous month.
The fall in July was driven by both internet and newspaper job ads. Internet job advertisements, which are the main driver of total job ads, declined by 0.7% in July. Annual growth in internet jobs ads slowed from 8.8% in June to 7.9% in July.
The more volatile newspaper ads remain on a structural downward trend and fell further in July, down 12.6% in the month to be 41.7% lower than a year ago.
The labour market has lost some momentum so far in 2016, with slower average growth in both employment and job ads seeing the unemployment rate stabilise around 5¾% after declining in the second half of last year from a peak of 6.3%.
More recently, job ads rebounded strongly in May, followed by a modest rise in June, but these increases have been partly unwound by the decline in July. Given that ads fell sharply in early July, we think this decline may partly reflect the impact of increased uncertainty following the close federal election on 2 July and the shock decision by the UK to leave the European Union on 24 June.
This impact appears to have been short-lived, with job ads picking up over the course of July, and little sustained effect from the increase in uncertainty on business and consumer confidence. For example, the ANZ-Roy Morgan index of consumer sentiment fell about 3% in
the weeks after Brexit and the federal election, but recouped almost all of that fall by the end of July.With surveyed business conditions remaining upbeat and the RBA cutting rates in August, we look for a gradual improvement in hiring intentions over the remainder of the year
