I caught up with journalist Tarric Brooker for a look back over the year, and what might be up in 2025, including of course some great slides.
We dwelt on housing and Government policy, the structure of the economy and what might be underlying the dire numbers reported recently. How much is spin and how much is real?
You can catch Tarric’s work at https://www.burnouteconomics.com/
The latest slides are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-christmas-special
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Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
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There was always going to be a question about the Fed’s December decision, would they react to the latest data, or position ahead of the Trump 2.0 policy set coming in 2025? Well, it looks like both were in the minds of the Monetary Policy committee, as Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025, signaling greater caution over how quickly they can continue reducing borrowing costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 on Wednesday to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
Markets fell heavily in the US, and Asia, with the DOW and SP500 down more than 2.5% and the NASDAQ more than 3.5% lower. This was the largest post FED market move in 4 years. Falls were widespread. The ASX 200 slid 1.7%.
Bonds were stronger, . The US two-year note’s yield, more sensitive than longer maturities to Fed policy shifts, led the move in Treasuries, rising as much as eight basis points to 4.33%, the highest level since Nov. 25. and the US dollar rose, with the DXY up to 108.10.
The moves have reignited questions about how far central banks across Asia are willing to go to defend their currencies — and how much impact their moves will have. Indonesia’s central bank said on Thursday that it was intervening to push back against a selloff in the rupiah, while the People’s Bank of China used its daily reference rate to support the yuan.
Weaker currencies tend to raise the price of imports to a country, fueling domestic inflation. Further rate cuts could also put more pressure on currencies as investors look elsewhere for returns, exacerbating the impact of dollar strength.
Not good for chances of an RBA rate cut in 2025.
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So we got the Mid Year economic Forecast today from the Treasurer, and there was plenty of spin about necessary uplifts in spending, recent tax cuts and government support, and even that the Government is supporting women more than ever.
They were also keen to compare their own efforts with the previous Governments efforts (through they were including the COVID years), and international comparison which showed Australia’s economy still has more capacity, and is in some respects still the best dirty shirt.
But as I discussed with Leith van Onselen just yesterday in our live show, all is not well with this budget, and there will be consequences.
One notable issue was that federal government has cut company tax receipts for the first time since the pandemic because of weaker profits from the mining sector.
But the treasurer maintained most of the government’s long-run commodity price assumptions from the May budget. Iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG were unchanged at respectively $US60 a tonne, $US140 a tonne, $US70 a tonne and $US10 a metric million British thermal unit. Are these too conservative, and does it represent a hollow log for more spending – probably.
Then there is the so called off-budget issues. Today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), which showed that the federal government will spend a record $90 billion “off-budget” over the next four years, obscuring the true situation facing the budget. This off-budget spending does not show up in the underlying budget deficit or surplus despite it imposing a significant cost on taxpayers.
The underlying budget balance that treasurers prefer to focus on hides a heap of so-called “off-budget” spending, such as taxpayer money for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the $12 billion Snowy Hydro 2.0 project, wiping 20 per cent off student debts and the $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund.
Tax and other government revenue are hovering near a sustained record high of 25.5 per cent of the economy thanks to once-in-a-generation windfalls. The unemployment rate is a very low 3.9 per cent and personal income tax is on track for a record $335 billion this year, despite the stage 3 income tax cuts shaving off about $23 billion.
Company tax of $133 billion is just a bit below its all-time high last year, amid elevated commodity export prices.
Total budget revenue is cumulatively higher by about $380 billion over five years compared with Treasury’s forecasts on the eve of the May 2022 election.
Yet, at a time when revenue is booming and the economy is operating around full capacity, the deficit in underlying terms is forecast to be $26.9 billion (1 per cent of gross domestic product), a $1.3 billion improvement since the May budget.
Cumulative underlying deficits over four years are projected to blow out to $144 billion, $21.7 billion worse than expected seven months ago.
Where are the adults in the room because from the budget point of view, they appear to have left years ago, and the result will be more pressure on ordinary households and businesses across the country.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edit of a live discussion with Economist Leith van Onselen, Co-founder of MacroBusiness, and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We will pick apart the latest housing disasters, and why things have gone so pear shaped, but also what could be done (with political will) to sort this mess out! It is NOT rocket science…
You can ask a question live!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
As we count down to the end of the year, Edwin and I discuss the idea that Government wants to keep property prices ever higher, look at a disaster of a building survey as a warning for those who trust vendor surveys, and spot areas where prices are well down from 2017 levels, despite all the hype.
Plus we consider the problem of not enough skilled construction workers to meet targets in Australia and the UK, and the underlying reasons why property is largely unaffordable.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
We deep dive on the thorny question of household finances and the proportion of disposable income going to pay the rent or mortgage, using data from our core market model.
We find that conditions are quite severe in many parts of the country, but it is not uniformly spread. Which households are most under the pump in terms of these critical ratios?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 0.53% earlier, breaking a three-week winning streak, as investors sought clarity on Europe’s rate policy amid concerns about economic growth and a potential trade war.
As we run down to the end of the year, a flurry of Central Bank rate announcements signalled a confusing picture, with the RBA holding, the ECB cutting as expected, alongside Denmark at 25 basis points, and Swiss Bank cutting unexpectedly as it sought to head off gains in its currency along with Canada both doing a bigger 50 basis point cut. Next week, we have more Central Bank action, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Japan all joining the party. While investors are betting on a quarter point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations are rising that the pace of rate cuts is poised to slow, with an 80% probability of a hold in January, while cuts in the UK and Japan are not expected. So, you can see monetary policy is all over the shop.
The shadow of president-elect Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on imports from around the globe, especially China, as well as his promise for massive corporate tax cuts haunts the markets. These policies are seen as fueling inflation, which has been proving sticky even before Trump’s plans are enacted.
Finally, Bitcoin was once again touching $100,000 US, as Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor tweeted: “We are all competing for $45m in #Bitcoin mined daily.”
Curiously, earlier this week, another big Bitcoin supporter and maximalist, the chief executive at JAN3, Samson Mow, shared that he expects miners to stop selling the BTC they mint in the near future. He urged the market to be prepared for that and plan their Bitcoin accumulation accordingly. Earlier this week, Saylor commented on a Bitcoin warning tweet published by Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao issued a major reminder that more than 19 million Bitcoin from 21 million have been mined already. Saylor tweeted that the crypto space is running out of Bitcoin. It was last at 101,300, and will likely wobble around this level for some time.
Given significant uncertainty ahead, markets are generally overvalued, and prone to volatility and potential falls, so cash returning 4 or 5 percent relatively risk free might look a good option for now!!!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Core Logic released their annual Best of the Best report, and they say that while at first glance, the Australian housing market was surprisingly resilient through 2024, it can be characterised as having stronger conditions ‘out of the gate’, which slowed over the course of the year under waning demand, rising levels of advertised supply and a changed outlook for inflation and interest rates.
There were significant variations across property types and locations, with significant rises and falls, and units doing better than houses.
Melbourne dominated the list of the worst-performing house and unit markets, underscoring the city’s weak showing this year. House prices in Chelsea, Doncaster, Dromana and Bonbeach slumped between 9 per cent and 10.2 per cent, while unit values in Sunshine, Frankston South, Carnegie, Murrumbeena and Caulfield South dropped by as much as 13.8 per cent.
Sydney suburbs Zetland and Cronulla were among the weakest house markets in the country, with values dropping by 9.7 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively. And that’s the point really, because the truth is, values are all over the shop at the moment, with the likelihood of further falls in some areas, unless or until we see significant rate cuts. Given what we saw yesterday reflected in the lower unemployment rate, the RBA won’t be cutting soon, so 2025 will be “interesting”….
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November as the nation’s golden streak of hiring gains extended, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to elevated interest rates and prompting traders to pare back bets of a February cut.
As Alex Joiner from IFM noted “Solid employment Growth in November and a tick down in the participation rate sees the unemployment rate get back down below 4%. It seems the RBA doesn’t particularly need to be in a hurry to cut rates, a February move still has a lot of optionality. It was a big full time number is encouraging and underscores a very solid print”.
Employment grew 0.2 per cent in November 2024, following an average monthly rise of 0.3 per cent since the middle of 2024, in line with recent population growth. “The recent growth in population has boosted the labour supply as employment has kept up with population growth,” the ABS noted.
Compared with Canada, the Eurozone and US, Australia seems stuck with higher inflation, yet the jobs market stays strong. This suggests the labour market continues to be relatively tight,” the ABS said.
Nothing here to suggest the RBA will cut soon. More pressure on households.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
You can smell an election coming soon as Australia’s housing minister has declared that the Anthony Albanese government doesn’t want house prices to fall – despite them being very unaffordable for the young.
Clare O’Neil made the admission on Triple J’s youth-orientated Hack program recently, when she was hit with a barrage of questions about the housing market being ‘stacked against young people’.
‘We want to bring house price growth into something sustainable – so we’re not trying to bring down house prices,’ Ms O’Neil said.
That prompted a surprised host David Marchese to ask: ‘Why don’t you want to be seeing house prices drop? ‘If you’re looking to get into the market, if you’re a young person looking at what’s ahead of you, you definitely want to see house prices come down.’
O’Neil rejected the argument – saying ‘That may be the view of young people – it’s not the view of our government,’ she said.
Data keeps rolling out showing how unsustainable the current housing market policy path is, with the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA)’s latest Housing Affordability report for the September quarter showed average loan repayments amounted to 48.6 per cent of the median family income of $2501 a week.
This is the greatest proportion since the REIA began monitoring housing affordability in 1996.
Mind you we saw similar political confusion from the UK Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Minister who in a weekend interview managed to say both there was a housing shortage, and no housing shortage, despite high migration in the same interview. Again it shows the political back-flips polys are prepared to do.
For truth though Kudos to Adrian Orr the New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor, who said last week in an interview that the property market was a real mess. Can you imagine the RBA or Senior Politicians in Australia speaking such truth. No, because politics trumps housing policy rationality. High migration wins over bringing prices back under control. And Boomers win over younger Australians again.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
