Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In tonight’s show we catch up on Edwin’s predictions – does NOSTRADAMUS walk among us? We look at the massive rise in Council Tax, and also the rise in listings, but only in some places.

And given the upcoming election we examine some of the early promises being made in the quasi campaign, despite the gap between the promised 1.2 million well sited homes over 5 years and what is happening on the ground.

Edwin also highlights an important issue for a prospective property purchaser – get your paper work in order!

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Did Hope Of A Rate Cut Stoke The Property Market?

The news outlets are full of more property news, with some spruiking that the hope of a rate cut in February has spurred people into action after the holidays, with a focus on Melbourne property prices rebounding.

So, let’s look at the data and see what is happening. Actually, the January update on prices from PropTrack showing that nationally prices fell just 0.1% in January, to a median value of $796,000.

Clearance rates are another metric in focus, but as I have discussed before they are also full of holes. Specifically, Preliminary clearance rates generally fall as the results of more auctions are collected. Domain reported a 66.6% national clearance but a year ago it was at 60.6%. CoreLogic preliminary data showed that the combined capitals returned a clearance rate of 65%.

As for wants ahead, well of course no one really knows. Which is why I run scenarios, which will be updated shortly. This week we had predictions from KPMG. As discussed in the AFR, KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said Melbourne’s house prices are tipped to climb 3.5 per cent this year, rebounding for the first time since last February, and slightly outpacing Sydney, fuelled by improved housing affordability after five years of sluggish growth, while Sydney’s housing values are expected to increase by 3.3 per cent, which is also higher than the 2.5 per cent gain last year.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Warning: Market Volatility Squared Ahead As Black Swans Land!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.

As expected, this was a volatile week, as questions over AI tech, tariffs and inflation all converged to stoke significant volatility across the trading days. Monday saw big falls thanks to DeepSeek emerging with potentially a different economic approach to AI delivery, the Fed held rates during the week, while the ECB and Canada cut their benchmark rates, and late on Friday, President Donald Trump saying he would indeed place 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China effective on Sunday and those on imports from the European Union would follow.

Trump said while the new tariffs might cause some disruption short term, he was not concerned about the reaction in markets. He also said there was nothing that Canada, Mexico nor China could do to forestall his plans. “Starting tomorrow, those tariffs will be in place,” White House spokeswoman Ms Leavitt told reporters. “These are promises made and promises kept by the president.”

And in economic news, the latest U.S. prices increased in December while consumer spending surged. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gain in November, the Commerce Department said on Friday. In the 12 months through December, the PCE price index advanced 2.6% after rising 2.4% in November. This mean that U.S. inflation increased by the most in eight months in December amid robust consumer spending on goods and services, suggesting the Federal Reserve would probably be in no hurry to resume cutting interest rates soon.

Gold hit an intra-day all-time high of $2,800.99 in spot trading earlier today, as investors adjusted their positions ahead of US President Trump’s decision on whether to slap 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports.

The Australian sharemarket notched its second record high of the week on Friday, capping the bourse’s best month since July. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.5 per cent higher at 8532.3 – its largest weekly gain in five weeks. The index rose 4.6 per cent over January.

Bitcoins adoption as a reserve asset by a powerful country could trigger a domino effect, prompting other countries to follow suit. But the path is as yet far from certain.

More broadly, and as expected, markets will remain highly volatile, and global trade norms potentially get reset, and inflation still bubbles along below the surface. Just remember that markets remain in over-valued territory, and Deep Seek is an object lesson in how black swan events can emerge unheralded. Expect a wedge of black swans in the weeks ahead.

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Is The RBA Really All In For A Rate Cut In February?

Many are calling for a RBA cash rate cut in February, but as we look at the overall data indicators, its a line ball call, and stripping away the political pressure and overdone economic commentary, the case is not as strong as you might think. Indeed, the latest RBA Credit Aggregates were pretty strong, and inflation expectations are less well anchored than some seen to believe.

I agree the February meeting is a “live” meeting, but don’t over estimate the probability of a cut.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Central Bankers Start Fretting As Trump 2.0 Rolls On!

In an interesting alignment of timing, we had Central Bankers at the Fed, the bank of Canada and also the ECB who will turn up today talk about their latest monetary decisions. And whilst it is expected the ECB will cut again, and in Canada they cut rates and announced the end of QT, the FED is firmly on pause for maybe an extended period.

But certainly, the implication how President Donald Trump’s policies — in areas such as immigration, tariffs, fiscal policy and regulation — was the spectre at the feast.

As RBC Economists wrote “The U.S. Federal Reserve says “thank you for calling, please hold” as it keeps policy rates unchanged and makes almost no adjustments to its recent narrative that inflation and the labour market are back to appropriate levels. Unlike the Bank of Canada’s rate cut just mere hours earlier, which was almost uniquely focused on trade conflicts, the U.S. central bank seemed to almost go out of its way to avoid mentioning any potential (however probable) policy changes from Washington D.C.

The Fed’s emphasis is instead that starting places matter and the U.S. economy is in “a really good place”. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear on Wednesday the US central bank intends to hold interest rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5% for the foreseeable future.

Over in Europe. The ECB will announce its decision at 2:15 p.m. in Frankfurt. ECB policymakers are balancing warnings that greater global trade stress could damp exports against lingering fears over services prices still rising at twice the 2% goal.

All up, the zone of uncertainty has expanded, making it more likely Central Bankers will make policy missteps. And whilst the US economy still seems in fine fettle, despite sticky inflation, other countries including Canada, the UK, the Eurozone, China and even Australia are facing into the teeth of a gale. Things could get very interesting….

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Does The CPI Numberwang Show That Politics Wins?

Australia has been a global outlier in the current easing cycle as most developed world central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have already cut substantially. The Fed is due to announce the outcome of its meeting later today and is expected to stand pat. The RBA, in tackling inflation through 2022-23, opted for a lower peak rate than global counterparts. It worried about the capacity of heavily-geared households to cope with significantly higher mortgage repayments.

But we got a softer-than-expected annual underlying inflation figure of 3.2 per cent for the 3 months to December from the ABS today, and the journos are out in force saying a rate cut from the RBA is February is all but certain now, which of course would be welcomed by households who are mortgaged to the hilt, and music to the ears of politicians ahead of the election. Not so good for savers mind you.

The annual trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices, which shaves off volatile items, rose 3.2% in the three months through December, compared with an expected 3.3% gain and on a quarterly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.5% versus a forecast 0.6%.

Economists at Westpac, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Securities and AMP all brought forward their calls for the first Reserve Bank cut to February. Goldman Sachs which was already predicting February and May rate reductions, now sees an easing in April as well.

But not so fast, because whilst the number landed in a place to make next month’s Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting a cliffhanger, there is still a case to do nothing. And whilst the market has gone all with an 80 to 90 per cent chance of a cut, there is also a reasonable case to hold steady and await more information on the economy. So perhaps it’s more like 50-50.

But given the breadth and depth of government cost of living support, with energy bills credits, rent assistance, 50¢ public transport in Queensland and a revision to a previously mismeasured childcare subsidy even the trimmed mean has been distorted by the huge breadth of government subsidies in the December quarter.

Contrary to common perception, subsidies can affect underlying inflation and could accelerate the RBA cutting interest rates, even if the grounds for doing so may be dubious. Chalmers and Treasury may have outmanoeuvred the RBA. Hence, the lingering doubts about a rate cut relate to whether the RBA board feels confident enough about disinflation based on a sole quarterly number.

So, the key question is, will the politically driven handouts which have been spayed about the place liberally, and sufficient to mask inflation even in the trimmed numbers drive the RBA to cut, in which case politics ahead of the election will have won, at the expense of tax payers, who know the true inflation costs are still way higher than numerwanged. And then of course we have the impact of the lower exchange rate to content with ahead, which could also be inflationary. So a 50-50 call for February, but perhaps politics have won, for now.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Let’s Play The Property Game By New Rules…

This is an edit of a live discussion with founder of bRight Agent, Aaron Scott, and our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we examine the current property market, and how picking the right Real Estate Agent can make a BIG difference.

Find & Compare Local Agents, and SAVE MONEY with bRight Agent! https://brightagent.com/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

This week we examine the post holiday ramp up ahead of “Super Saturday” in a couple of weeks. The press coverage has been all about listings rising, but is that the whole picture.

We also look at the risks of purchasing the wrong property and the problem of home insurance, with more properties likely to be uninsurable.

And Edwin has some tips on how to same money on insurance for homes.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Is Brisbane The Next City To See The Home Price Fall Shoe Drop?

Something a bit weird is happening in property markets across Australia.

Normally as we head into the peak autumn selling season momentum and prices tend to step up. But so far sellers are racing to beat the competition into a falling market already padded by properties that failed to sell in spring last year and this has pushed up the volume of residential listings in parts of Sydney and Melbourne more than 50 per cent on last year according to CoreLogic data. And now its spreading to Brisbane and Perth too.

“Brisbane looks to me like a really soggy market and I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices go negative in the next couple of months,” said AMP chief economist Shane Oliver. Brisbane could be the next capital to enter a downturn after Sydney. “It’s often the case that once the momentum turns negative, you go further negative for a while, so when prices are falling, history tells us that can go on for a little bit. I think momentum is starting to work against Brisbane, and it is now weakening at a similar pace as Sydney was six months ago.”

So for now, perhaps Brisbane is the one to watch…

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Markets Reach Higher On Trump Change But Expect The Unexpected

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia.

This past week saw the presidential torch passed to Trump with a flurry of edicts following, as the tech bros and rich people look on. Markets continue to speculate on the real impact of tariffs, the move to push quote ‘illegals” out, and further investments in AI and crypto, backed by the US state.

Meantime the Davos love in this week, where unelected technocrats meet up with the rich seemed to be propagating yesterday’s news, and frankly a new and partisan world order appears to be taking root.

Trump did not impose day-one tariffs and said the U.S. is not ready for universal ones, but Canada, Mexico and China are in the firing line, as is the European Union. The 10% levy faced by Beijing is dwarfed by the 25% duties promised for Trump’s neighbours, and well below the 60% blanket tariff on Chinese imports previously mooted. Fund managers are playing down Donald Trump’s tariff threats, saying the risk of stoking inflation will stop the president from rushing out destructive trade policies that could threaten global growth.

In an executive order on Thursday, he touted the digital asset industry as “crucial” to U.S. innovation, created a working group to draft new crypto rules and explore a crypto stockpile, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) spiked accounting guidance that the industry said had stymied crypto adoption.

Those measures, though light on detail, seemed to alleviate some disappointment after crypto reform failed to feature in Trump’s flurry of day-one announcements on Monday. Thursday’s executive order also required banking services for crypto companies be protected and banned the development of U.S. central bank digital currencies, which could compete with bitcoin and other established tokens.

http://www.martinnorth.com/