Dumb Planning And The Rise In Insurance Costs: Costs Us All…

Despite the slow fall in inflation, Australian households are paying through the nose for their insurance. Indeed, rising insurance premiums have been a notable contributor to Australia’s cost-of-living crisis. They have also placed upward pressure on CPI inflation.

The Climate Council says that Australians are paying $30 billion more on insurance than they were a decade ago, while premiums have risen at more than twice the average rate of inflation over that time.

The Insurance Council of Australia stated in a recent report that 225,000 Australian homes face a 2% to 5% chance of flooding each year, but only 23% of those homes have flood coverage, compared to 60% across the country.

The Actuaries Institute also estimates that 12% of households are facing insurance affordability stress, which is defined as when home insurance premiums exceed four week’s income.

Climate dynamics is part of the problem. One study found that extreme and potentially dangerous rapid rain bursts (sub-hourly heavy rainfall) over Greater Sydney have intensified by at least 40% over the past two decades (1997 to 2018). But I want to focus on something more immediate. Planning zoning.

The Insurance Council says it is an example of an outdated planning process. “Zombie DAs” can leave owners who are directly affected priced out of insurance and drive up premiums more broadly. The extent of zombie DAs is unknown, although a NSW parliamentary inquiry heard coastal NSW alone has hundreds of them.

My point is, there is line of sight between insurance costs blowing out, bad planning and zoning, the desire to build in unsuitable places, and rising flood risks. A classic cocktail, were commercial interests over-ride doing the right thing.

The consequences are more households facing flooding risks, many of who are uninsured, because the costs are so high, which means that in the event of a major flood, Governments, who created the problem in the first place due to poor zoning decisions, will need to recover costs of remediation from taxpayers. Or in other words, we all pay because of the bad planning, making insurance costs higher, inflation higher and leading to higher interest rates. Join the dots people, join the dots…

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Markets Jump On Trump’s Latest Change Of Tune!

Here we go again. Just yesterday, markets fell on Trumps comments concerning Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and by threatening to sack the head of the world’s most important central bank.

Then the IMF came out with an economic update which slashed its US and global economic forecasts, warning that tariffs were ushering in a new era of slower growth.

Elsewhere a finance industry trade group the IIF said the US faced a likely recession later this year, and Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon said uncertainty was “too high” holding back corporate decision-making and keeping asset prices under pressure.

But then, in the latest twist on Wednesday, US time, Trump again called on the US Federal Reserve chairman to “be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates”. “But, no, I have no intention to fire him,” he volunteered in a reporters’ call in the White House. Make that 1-0 for Powell.

Markets reacted positively to the news At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.66%, while the S&P 500 index added 2.51%, and the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 2.71%. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, was down 9.64% to 28.37.

We should expect the current crazy times to continue, with volatility ahead, as like it or not, the global financial system is in spasm, as I discussed on my live show yesterday. This will not end soon, and may not end well for many.

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Economic Update: April 2025

This is my edit of a regular segment with Nuggets News, as we look at the latest market, finance and property news. This month we dwell on the question of the financial system, in the light of Trump’s tariffs and calls for the Fed Chair to cut rates. As a result, investors are leaving the US, pulling the USD lower, and bond yields higher. Is this the signal the global financial system is on the blink?

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Is The Financial System Breaking (And What’s Next): With Adam Stokes

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market dynamics even as tariffs wreck the joint, and treasury yields rise; with Adam Stokes, a crypto evangelist. Is it time for new money, and how does all this play into the current election debates?

https://www.youtube.com/@adamstokes

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Property Insider Edwin and I kick around the latest property and election news, and pull apart the latest numbers.

During the show we highlight recent announcements from China about graduates now being pulled into the army, the latest on what people are not moving, despite in some cases pressures to do so, and the latest on MSM calls for rate cuts galore, despite warnings from the RBA of the consequences for the property market and broader financial stability.

Are we the only ones feeling jaded by the current ineffectiveness of the election campaigning?

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Finally, Some Of The MSM Are Telling The Economic Truth (Sort Of)…

I had a couple of YouTube shows pop up in my feed today which cut to the heart of the economic issues which Australia is facing. Up to now, the critical questions around migration, productivity and gas reservation were really not covered in any depth, indeed, some might say they were deliberately avoided.

But now first we got Daniel Mercer, the ABC Energy Reporter talking about the real reasons Australia is running out of gas. https://youtu.be/emlOIagqtds

And then Bloomberg originals released Why Australia’s Miracle Economy Is Failing. https://youtu.be/0lEtQqvdS2g

This election is important because unless we get significant shifts in policy, we will continue to grind lower in terms of real income, and social opportunity. And we need to ask why policies around productivity improvement, real tax and housing reform and a proper migration strategy, not to the fore?

As Andy Schmulow, who was featured in the AFR today, the Citizens Party Senate Candidate for NSW puts it “Democracy is dying because people have lost faith in government and its institutions, and you can’t blame them”.

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-this-pwc-and-big-bank-agitator-is-running-for-the-senate-20250404-p5lp7k

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Meet A Man With A Mission To Save Australia!

I caught up with Assoc Prof Andy Schmulow, the NSW Senate Candidate for The Australian Citizens Party, as we did a deep dive into the structural issues which are killing the Australian Economy, and its society; and what can be done about them.

The conversation touched on the rigged system which has caused the cost of living crisis, the corruption which has made large companies super-profitable at the expense of the community, and why the current political system is so broken.

But Andy also talks about what can be done to fix the issues, and how strategic voting especially in the Senate (which ever state you may be it) can lay a path for a profoundly better future.

https://scholars.uow.edu.au/andy-schmulow
https://citizensparty.org.au/
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-this-pwc-and-big-bank-agitator-is-running-for-the-senate-20250404-p5lp7k

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Some Sliding Door Moments On The Fractured Australian Property!

Australia’s housing crisis is a key issue in this year’s election and as the campaigns run on, yawn, housing remains a central issue, but both major parties are playing games rather than getting to the heart of the issue. So today, I want to go though three cameos which bring out some of the critical issues which need to be explored. But aren’t in the current campaigns.

The first is the ongoing rental crisis, and I made a post recently on the problem one third of households are struggling with. But if this sounds rather academic, then my earlier show where I spoke with Morgan Cox, who has become something of a celebrity following his straightforward question on ABC Q&A, makes the issue personal.

And Morgan continues his quest to raise the issue of homelessness, as Albo now has a new neighbour, as Cox set up his tent outside the PM’s mansion in protest of the housing crisis. He says “I’m trying to send a message to the Government.”

The Second issue is homelessness versus development. On a quiet bend of Selwyn Street in Sydney’s affluent Paddington, two run-down homes stand as stark symbols of Australia’s escalating housing crisis.

In late 2022, developer LFD Developments snapped up the buildings, known as the Selwyn Street boarding houses, with plans to replace them with four luxury homes. Under threat of eviction, most of the 28 men who lived there moved out this year, with just four remaining.

Now, as housing affordability dominates the national agenda ahead of next month’s election, the battle to save this rare pocket of inner-city low-income housing has gained momentum.

And finally, Build to Rent as typified by in Sydney’s outer suburban hub of Parramatta, where there is an overgrown patch of land sandwiched between the train station and a Westfield mall but which is also is emblematic of the battle lines forming around the future of housing and who will run Australia.
Urban Property Group, a developer, is planning to build on the site a 46-story tower of build-to-rent housing, a previously uncommon type of accommodation in Australia where renters pay a company rather than an individual landlord.

In Australia’s case, the majority of BTR projects to date have been premium products targeting mid-to-high income households and even with a recently legislated affordability clause that applies to 10% of homes within developments, they’ll still be beyond the means of very low income earners.

Whoever wins the election will need to solve two crises at the same time – a chronic, retrospective housing shortage and a lack of future supply. That doesn’t happen overnight!

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What Egg-actly Is Going On With The Incredible Shrinking Easter Egg Scam?

As we meet Easter head on, thoughts of course turn to the Chocolate Easter Egg.

If you walk round the stores, you will note a few trends. First. Prices are significantly higher than the past couple of years.

Second, the size of the eggs are smaller, thanks to shrinkflation, with some items 10% smaller than recent years, but in bigger boxes.

And third, and most concerning the formulation of the egg has changed, with a fall in cacao content, offset by a rise in sugar and other substitutes including cheaper palm oils.

In the world of the inflation constrained consumer, this is a big deal, both in terms of money spent, and broader health related questions about super-processed foods and their impacts. The message is watch what you buy!

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Uncertainty Into Stagflation Spooks Markets, Lifts Gold (Again)…

Today, Gold hit another all-time high as warnings from Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell about the impact of the trade war fueled volatility on Wall Street, leading to sharp declines in stocks and the dollar.

Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday and said that policymakers would balance their dual responsibilities of fostering maximum employment and stable prices, “keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor-market conditions that benefit all Americans.

Powell repeated that the level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. He added that the duties are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, but that the inflationary effects could also be more persistent.

In effect he parked the FED Put which the markets have been gambling on, positioning price stability as a “prerequisite” to sustainably achieving the Fed’s employment mandate and so pushed back on market pricing of a prompt monetary policy response to signs of a deteriorating growth outlook.

In Australia, the latest data showed employment increased by 32,200 in March, following a drop of 52,800 the previous month. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent. The robust data prompted money markets to dial back expectations of a jumbo half a percentage point rate cut in May.

Elsewhere The Bank of Canada on Wednesday announced its policy rate would remain at 2.75 per cent. Tiff Macklem, the BoC governor, said the bank held off on a rate cut due to a lack of clarity concerning trade with the US.

And In passing, we note the ECB rate decision upcoming today, We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited. But I don’t expect much in terms of guidance by the ECB, which could echo Wednesday’s Bank of Canada communication: openly acknowledge policymakers are as confused as markets on the tariff impact, and they are not able to offer any forward-looking view at this stage.

I think the main message from Powell and other Central Bankers is patience, the tariff impacts will play out over months, not days, and thus markets will remain trigger happy on any piece of news, good or bad. I expect stagflation just around the corner!!

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