NAB Validates DFA Research On Property Investors

The recently released Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015 from NAB, included some data which chimes with DFA research (and highlights again that the FIRB do not have their figure on the overseas investor pulse).

First, with regards to First Time Buyers, NAB says that the say that around 1 in 4 purchases are being made by first home buyers (FHB), both as “owner occupiers” but also as “investors”. FHB going direct to the investment market was a theme we covered on the blog.

First homebuyers (FHBs) still account for around 1 in 4 of all new property sales, but the share of demand from FHBs owner occupiers fell to 14.7% while FHBs investors rose to 10.1%. Owner occupiers were broadly unchanged at 33.1%, while local investors were down slightly to 24.1%.”

Second, Foreign buyers were more active in new housing markets, accounting for 15.6% of demand.

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-6“There was however a notable shift in activity by location with the share of foreign buyers in NSW rising to a new high of 21% and falling to 20.7% in Victoria (from 33% in Q4 2014)”

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-5   NABPPtyForeignApr2015-2 In contrast, foreign buyers were less active in established housing markets, with their share of national demand inching down to 7.5% (8.7% in Q4’14).

Foreign buyer demand fell notably in Victoria (8.6%) and to a lesser extent in Queensland (5.1%), but increased slightly in WA (6.1%) and was broadly unchanged in NSW (11.2%).

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-4Nationally, 53% of all foreign purchases were for apartments, 30% houses and 17% for re-development. The bulk of foreign buyers (41%) spent between $500k to <$1 million, with 30% buying properties less than $500k and 5% buying premium property in excess of $5 million.

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-1Once again, this chimes with our research, when we showed a similar level of activity below $1m, and significant foreign investor activity in Sydney and Melbourne.

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-3Owner occupiers are still dominating demand for established property with a market share of 42.4% (42.6% in Q4’14), followed by local investors with a 21.6% share (22% in Q4’14). Property professionals estimate FHBs (owner occupiers) accounted for 15.8% of total demand for established property in Q1’15 (16.1% in Q4’14), with FHBs (investors) making up 10% (9.3% in Q4’14). Foreign buyers were less active in this market in Q1’15, with their share of national demand inching down to 7.5% (8.7% in Q4’14). Foreign buyer demand fell notably in VIC (8.6%) and to a lesser extent in QLD (5.1%), but increased slightly in WA (6.1%) and was broadly unchanged in NSW (11.2%).

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-8At the national level, capital growth expectations for the next 12 months have strengthened in all price ranges in both the housing and apartment markets. Capital growth expectations are assessed as “good” for all houses below $2 million and for apartments below $1 million. Expectations for capital growth at all other price points are assessed as “fair”. By state, expectations for capital growth continue to be strongest in NSW at all price ranges in both the housing and apartment markets, and significantly stronger for apartments valued at below $ 2million. In contrast, capital growth prospects are clearly lagging in WA at all price points, but especially at price points above $2 million, where prospects are considered “poor”

NABPPtyForeignApr2015-7

 

March Building Approvals Up By 1.8%

The ABS released the Building Approvals data to March 2015. In trend terms, the number of approvals was 19,333, up 1.8% on last month, and 18.2% from last year. The count has risen for 10 months. The trend estimate for private sector houses approved rose 0.2% in March and has risen for four months. The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 3.6% in March and has risen for 10 months.

The value of residential building rose 2.5% and has risen for 12 months. The value of non-residential building fell 2.8% and has fallen for four months.  As the resource sector packs up its building tools, some are being applied to the residential sector.

However, it is the state by state date which really highlights the true “state” of play. In NSW, we see a strong pickup in unit approvals, driven by investment property demand and high residential prices.

NSW-Building-Approvals-March-2015Compare this with WA, where, as the resource boom slides into the dust, approvals are down for both units and houses, though we see the mix is strongly aligned towards houses rather than units.

WABuildingApprovalsMarch2015In SA, approvals are falling, and only a small number of approvals are for units.

SABuildingApprovalsMarch2015In QLD, we see momentum in units, whilst approvals for houses has fallen a little.

QLDBuildingApprovalsMarch2015Finally, in VIC. momentum is positive, and both houses and apartments are up, with slightly more than half being for units.

VIC-Building-Approvals-March-2015

 

SME’s Can Get Some Moula

I caught up with Aris Allegos, co-founder of Moula, the Australian online unsecured lender to small business which has been operating for about a year. In that time, business has been growing, with about 250k a week being lent currently, to about 30% of applicants who apply. As we highlighted previously, alternate funding for SME’s is on the rise, with players like PayPal and P2P players eyeing the market.

Moula’s business model mirrors the successful US business Ondeck, using algorithms to assess business applicants based on cash flow and credit history. By linking customers business’ data to Moula, they can automatically view transaction data and make a decision very quickly, and lend to businesses which the banks would not find attractive.

They currently offer loans of between $1,000 and $50,000 for a six month term, with repayments of principal and interest made each fortnight to pay the loan down. Loans are made on balance sheet, so it is not a P2P lender, but is a great example of an emerging online financial player (fintech is the buzz word).

They can lend to a small business or company, but not to an individual, which avoids the Australian consumer credit complexity. An ABN or ACN is required. Applicants on behalf of a company are required to provide a personal guarantee. Moula is regulated by ASIC, not APRA (no deposits, so not a bank), but of course they still have to run AML checks on applicants.

Interest is charged on a fortnightly basis, at 1% per fortnight, or 26% APR. At the moment they have a single rate, although the algorithm they have built supports risk based pricing, and Aris thinks it is likely they will begin to tailor the rate charged in the future, while still ensuring pricing is both fair and transparent.

Borrowers receive the funds into their account, and are given access to the Moula portal, where they can track their transaction. Moula uses Yodlee’s safe, encrypted service to download transaction data from the businees’s bank account. Yodlee provides these services to 9 of the 15 largest banks in the US and 2 of the 4 largest banks in Australia and is considered a world leader in this technology. Interestingly, though about 50% of potential borrowers are reluctant to share security information, so Moula can also hand manual bank statements.

Moula
They expect to grow substantially because they are addressing a sweet spot in the market, as banks find it uneconomic to make small unsecured loans to business (especially on the Basel III framework), and many SME’s need short term funding for working capital and other purposes.

According to Aris, so far despite dealing with a few late payers, they have not had to write off any loans, so losses are zero! This would seem to be related to the fact that the SMEs attracted to Moula are experienced, well-run businesses. Moreover, being developed in Australia for Australian SMEs, Aris is confident that their underwriting model is well honed to the domestic experience.

We think this is a good example of an online business which is likely to do well in the Australian market. Not least because the DFA SME research shows that business owners are migrating online fast, and have significant need for short term funding in the current low growth environment.

Customers seem to be happy with the experience, “I’m very happy to recommend Moula. I think they’ve got a great idea. There’s plenty of little e-commerce businesses that can use some extra cash without the headache of reams of paperwork. Moula’s website is attractive and easy to use. The loan approval was super fast & the money was in our account within 24hrs. The whole process was pain free, safe, fast, & affordable. Thank you”.

Senate Delivers Final Affordable Housing Report

The final Senate report into Affordable Housing was released today. The report is more than 450 pages long (including appendices), and the 40 recommendations cover a wide range of issues, including coordination and management across states and territories; developing a long term national plan; phasing out stamp duty; new funding options; urban planning; land supply; use of pre-fabs; tax reform of negative gearing; first buyer grants and saving schemes; shared equity programmes; downsizing; tenancy laws; social housing; housing for victims of domestic violence;  reinvigorating the National Affordability Housing Agreement; and housing supply. The report recognises housing affordability is a many-faceted issue, and the recommendations are comprehensive and sensible. Is there the political will to embrace such complex transformation?

We note the committees comments on macroprudential: “the committee would have serious reservations about the use of any overly blunt macroprudential regulations, including the use of LTV ratios such as these recently deployed in New Zealand. Throughout the inquiry, witnesses emphasised that there is not one Australian housing market, but rather many Australian housing markets, and indeed markets within markets. As such, the committee welcomes advice from the RBA that it is unlikely anything other than carefully targeted macroprudential tools would be deployed in Australia, and APRA would be quite unlikely to consider broad New Zealand-style LVR limits”. What about the recommended and preferred tools – debt servicing ratios?

More details of the report are outlined below.

By way of background, on 12 December 2013, the Senate referred an inquiry into affordable housing to the Senate Economics References Committee for inquiry and report by 26 June 2014. On 17 June 2014, the Senate granted an extension to the committee to report by 27 November 2014. On 2 October 2014, the committee was granted a further extension to report by the first sitting day in March 2015. Following a further extension granted on 2 March 2015, the committee is now due to report by 14 April 2015. On 13 April 2015, the committee presented an interim report with the intention of tabling its final report before 8 May 2015.

In the summary the committee underscores the importance of affordable, secure and suitable housing as a vital determinant of wellbeing. But, based on the evidence, the committee finds that a significant number of Australians are not enjoying the security and comfort of affordable and appropriate housing—that currently Australia’s housing market is not meeting the needs of all Australians.

Sustained growth in median housing costs above the rate of median household income growth in recent decades has made it increasingly difficult for a growing proportion of Australians to afford housing that is safe, secure and appropriate to their needs. Added to the general decline in housing affordability, and indeed compounding the trend, the stock of affordable housing—that is, housing appropriate to the needs of low- to moderate-income households—has failed to keep pace with demand in recent decades.  The committee does not believe the issue of housing affordability in Australia is rightly categorised as either a ‘supply-side problem’ or a ‘demand-side problem’. With this in mind, it is clearly evident that supply is currently not keeping pace with demand in the housing market. In this context, policy interventions that add to demand without addressing or at least accounting for supply-side constraints risk inflating house prices and exacerbating affordability problems.

Worsening housing affordability is reflected in declining home ownership rates. This decline is troubling for a number of reasons, not least because home ownership can be an important means for people to achieve financial and social wellbeing. Moreover, high rates of home ownership also provide broader economic and social benefits to the community. As such, while the committee believes governments should work to improve affordability outcomes for all types of housing tenure, it considers it appropriate for governments to promote home ownership.

The committee makes a range of recommendations directed primarily toward improving home purchase affordability. They include state governments phasing out conveyancing stamp duties, to be achieved through a transition to more efficient taxes, potentially including land taxation levied on a broader base than is currently the case. Other recommendations are directed at improving the efficiency, effectiveness and equity of infrastructure funding arrangements, which can have a strong influence on the cost of new housing. Similarly, a number of recommendations are made with the intention of ensuring land supply, urban planning and zoning processes have a positive effect on housing affordability.

Evidence indicated that direct grants to home owners, including First Home Owner Grants, need to be targeted carefully in order to be effective. While the committee suggests that First Home Owner Grants might need to be more tightly targeted, it also believes that shared equity programs are a promising means of helping more Australians become home owners, and consideration should be given to expanding such programs. Equally important, the committee recommends that programs designed to help older Australians ‘age in place’ when they want to, or downsize (or ‘rightsize’) to meet their needs, should be explored.

A large amount of the evidence received during this inquiry concerned the possible effect on home purchase affordability of existing taxation arrangements for investor housing, in particular negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. The committee recommends that the Australian Government investigate the effect of the current taxation treatment of investment housing on home purchase affordability (among other things), and consider if alternative approaches would help improve affordability.

The problems engendered by poor housing affordability are also clearly evident in the private rental market. Here low- to medium-income earners encounter significant problems accessing affordable and appropriate housing, with significant numbers experiencing rental stress or even severe rental stress. Indeed, one witness described the private rental market as a brutal place for people on welfare payments.

Evidence indicated strongly that renting must be recognised as a mainstream, and for some, a permanent form of tenure in Australia’s housing system and must be placed on Australia’s national policy agenda as a key issue to address poverty. Undeniably, the increasingly tight and expensive private rental sector is locking some low- to moderate-income earners out of affordable and appropriate housing. This situation indicates market failure and suggests that market solutions to low cost housing will simply not emerge naturally: that there is a clear need to find ways to attract private investment into low cost and social housing. But currently, without government incentives, affordable housing does not tend to appeal to private investors.

Many pensioners and people dependent on welfare or disability payments, who find themselves priced out of the private rental market, seek relief by accessing social housing, which provides a much needed safety net. But here they also face fierce competition.

An adequate supply of social housing would mean that older Australians are better able to age in place and not have to forgo daily essentials simply to pay their rent, and people with disability are not left to fend for themselves in substandard dwellings that make no allowance for their particular needs. Also, an adequate supply of social housing would mean that women escaping domestic violence would not be forced to stay in motels or, worse still, remain in abusive relationships. Unfortunately, social housing is in short supply and waiting lists are long. It has become ‘housing of last resort’ and many people desperate for safe, secure and affordable housing are left to ask ‘Where do I go?’

The committee makes recommendations that address identified deficiencies in Australia’s rental market, including a concerted effort by governments at all levels to commit to increasing the overall proportion of social housing as a percentage of Australia’s housing stock. Another cluster of recommendations call for the review and reform of tenancy laws (security of tenure, stability and fairness of rent rises, energy, comfort and safety standards, evictions and dispute resolution mechanisms). In addition, they also deal with the responsibilities and obligations of landlords when it comes to energy efficiency and home modifications for tenants with particular needs.

The committee also targets its recommendations at reinvigorating and improving current Commonwealth and state and territories agreements—National Affordable Housing Agreement (NAHA) and partnership arrangements including National Partnership Agreement on Remote Indigenous Housing (NPARIH) and National Partnership Agreement on Homelessness (NPAH). Furthermore, recognising that the National Rental Affordability Scheme has started the much needed process of attracting private investors into Australia’s affordable rental market, the committee recommends building on its success. The committee also looks at ways to make Commonwealth rental assistance more effective. In addition, the committee recommends establishing a Housing Supply Financing Task Force to investigate and advise government on mechanisms, including housing supply bonds, for engaging private investment in the affordable housing market.

Undoubtedly, Australia has a housing affordability problem—the challenges are complex, diverse and interact differently in different parts of Australia. Considering the vital importance of housing to a person’s overall wellbeing and the current problems gaining access to affordable and appropriate housing, the committee is convinced that access to affordable housing is a matter of national importance. Furthermore, affordable housing should be a national economic issue that needs to be a central and cross-cutting theme of government.

The committee believes governments, including the Australian Government, have a legitimate role, and indeed a responsibility, to use policy interventions to improve the efficiency, efficacy and, critically, the affordability of the housing market. Evidence indicated, however, that Australia’s housing policy and effort is fragmented, which has led to a good deal of confusion and discord in attempts to address housing issues. The various levels of government, and indeed different areas within the same government, often have contradictory objectives that pull in different directions. Clearly, one of the dominant messages coming out of this inquiry is the need for the Australian Government to give coherence to the numerous local, state and national incentives and schemes intended to contribute to the provision of affordable housing. A long-term, integrated and coherent plan with consistent policy governing a national approach to affordable housing is needed.

In the committee’s view, the Australian Government should be the driving force behind the development and implementation of this plan. As such, the current lack of a dedicated Commonwealth housing minister is of concern. Housing-specific policies, and policies that shape the housing market more broadly, have direct and in some cases profound effects on the lives of Australians across the socio-economic spectrum and in all tenure types. In this context, the committee contends there is a compelling argument for a dedicated Commonwealth housing minister able to provide crossportfolio and national leadership on this important policy issue.
Many of the key policy levers that shape the Australian housing market and housing affordability rest with the Commonwealth. In particular, demand-side levers such as taxation policy generally reside with the Commonwealth. Although many supply-side policy levers fall within the remit of the states and territories, the committee is firm in its view that the Commonwealth is best placed to provide the leadership to coordinate and guide the cross-jurisdictional reform necessary to improve the efficiency of housing supply across Australia.

An institutional mechanism is required to bring all levels of government together in order to deliver the overarching strategic approach to affordable housing in Australia. The committee believes that the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) provides the ideal structure within which the Commonwealth and states and territories can develop the strategy and devise the best way to implement it. A Ministerial Council on housing and homelessness within the COAG system, as the committee, recommends, would allow representatives from key government agencies, the not-forprofit organisations, industry bodies and associations, academics and other housing experts to participate in, or contribute to, the formulation of policy.

In this report, the committee recommends that the Australian Government direct its attention and efforts to a number of areas, and makes recommendations accordingly, including developing a long-term national affordable housing plan that:

  • recognises affordable housing, including affordable rental housing, as a mainstream and national policy objective and places affordable housing at the forefront of government policy across Australia;
  • is spearheaded by a dedicated minister for housing and homelessness and supported by an institutional infrastructure that would provide the continuity, expertise, experience and established networks with all levels of government;
  • fosters intergovernmental cooperation in solving housing issues within a ‘whole-of-system housing policy framework’;
  • places a high priority on improving the supply-side efficiency of the Australian housing market;
  • reinvigorates NAHA placing particular emphasis on improving transparency and accountability, and introducing a robust evaluation and reporting framework;
  • contains clear, consistent and longer-term funding commitments adequate to meet the growing demand for social housing;
  • recommits to halving homelessness by 2025;
  • takes account of the findings outlined in this report including facts such as the age pension assumes home ownership and the projected decline in home ownership especially among older Australians;
  • builds trust and confidence that Australian governments at all levels, led by the Commonwealth, are committed to increasing the supply of affordable housing;
  • provides consistency, coherence and policy certainty for the affordable housing sector that would enable housing providers to forge stronger partnerships with the private sector;
  • recognises that significant volumes of public and private finance would be required to meet the projected need for additional rental housing and the importance of attracting institutional investors into the affordable housing market;
  • understands that efforts to attract a significant level of institutional investment into affordable housing have to date been largely unsuccessful; and
  • makes institutional investment a core policy objective in affordable housing.

Overall, and as highlighted in the strong and resounding messages drawn from the bulk of evidence, the committee is firmly of the view that:

  • the Australian Government cannot vacate the affordable housing space or step back from its responsibilities to ensure that every Australian has access to affordable, safe and sustainable housing; and
  • in the long run, investment in affordable housing returns dividends not only to the individual struggling to access safe, secure and affordable housing but to the budgets of the Australian, state and territory governments and ultimately the Australian taxpayer (by having a more productive community with reduced costs for social, health and unemployment services and for justice and policing.)

The Forty Recommendations are summarised below:

  1. The committee recommends that the Australian Government appoint a Minister for Housing and Homelessness, with the portfolio to be located in a central agency such as the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet or the Treasury, or in the Department of Infrastructure with formal links to the central agencies.
  2. The committee recommends that, as a matter of priority, the Commonwealth and states and territories agree to establish a ministerial council on housing and homelessness within the Council of Australian Governments ministerial council system.
  3. The committee recommends the establishment of a new body, ideally a statutory body, similar in function to the former National Housing Supply Council, but also with responsibility for monitoring performance against a new affordable housing plan (see recommendation 4) and measuring housing need according to key demographic trends, socio-economic and cultural factors.
  4. The committee recommends that the Commonwealth and states and territories collaborate in the development of a long term, national affordable housing plan, ideally to be developed through a new ministerial council on housing and homelessness within the Council of Australian Governments ministerial council system (see recommendation 2). While the shape of the plan and its relationship to the National Affordable Housing Agreement would be determined through the development process, the committee recommends that the plan:
    (a) include performance indicators, which should be monitored and reported on by the body recommended at recommendation 3; and
    (b) include base funding, possibly drawn from the National Affordable Housing Agreement funding envelope, with consideration also given to including Commonwealth reward payments linked to achievement by individual jurisdictions against the performance indicators.
  5. The committee recommends that state and territory governments phase out conveyancing stamp duties, and that as per the recommendations of the Henry Review, this be achieved through a transition to more efficient taxes, potentially including land taxation levied on a broader base than is currently the case.
  6. The committee recommends that all states and territories report to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), preferably through a new ministerial council on housing and homelessness (see recommendation 2), on what policy changes, if any, have been made to ensure infrastructure charges are consistent with the four principles agreed through COAG in July 2012.
  7. The committee recommends that state and local governments investigate the possibility of using Tax Increment Financing and other innovative finance mechanisms to fund infrastructure for new housing developments.
  8. The committee recommends that the proposed new Council of Australian Governments ministerial council on housing and homelessness (see recommendation 2) investigate ways to improve the consistency, timeliness and utility of government-collected and published information about land supply across jurisdictions.
  9. The committee recommends that the Australian Government:
    (a) show leadership in regard to national urban planning policy and urban regeneration, given the role both can play in improving and driving housing affordability outcomes across Australia’s major urban centres;
    (b) reinstate the National Urban Policy and Major Cities Unit given the former role both played in driving housing affordability policy and outcomes at the national level; and
    (c) show leadership in its policy capability and engagement with the states and territories with regard to urban planning policy.
  10. The committee recommends that the Australian Government consider developing a long-term strategy for regenerating Australia’s urban centres and transport corridors. This strategy might be incorporated into a revised national urban policy, and would provide for an intergovernmental and coordinated approach to infrastructure delivery, including upgrades to social infrastructure, and the identification of redevelopment opportunities for government-owned land (as outlined in recommendation 11).
    The committee further recommends that the Australian Government consider reestablishing the Urban Policy Forum, reconnecting with key stakeholders from the public and private sectors, academia and the community, and including responsibility for reviewing jurisdictional performance against targets relating to urban regeneration.
  11. Government-owned land, whether state or Commonwealth-owned, represents a potential land supply for affordable housing. Current governance, transparency and divestment arrangements could be improved so that this potential might be realised. The committee recommends:
    (a) the creation of a transparent, public, up-to-date register of government land and buildings that are considered ‘surplus’ or on the divestment program, including the location and size of this land, and any development restrictions attached to it;
    (b) the direct involvement of the Commonwealth agency with housing policy responsibility in any asset divestment programs, and the possible application of affordable housing targets in divestment programs;
    (c) the development of innovative partnerships involving public, not-forprofit, community and private consortiums that develop affordable and diverse housing on government land and buildings; and (d) the exploration of innovative models, such as community land trusts, on government-owned land where the government retains the land or a share in the development, but a community or not-for-profit housing provider develop affordable housing.
  12. The committee recommends a separate parliamentary inquiry into the Australian prefabricated housing industry, and its potential role in improving housing affordability and stimulating new activity in the manufacturing sector. This inquiry should consider, among other things:
    (a) the development of a comprehensive approach to creating a sustainable prefabricated building and insulated panel production industry;
    (b) the possibility of Commonwealth prefabricated housing targets in a national affordable housing plan (see recommendation 4);
    (c) the possibility of a Commonwealth prefabricated modular housing industry package to provide support for research and development, skills and training, assistance to establish new production and manufacturing facilities, and world class demonstration projects.
  13. The committee recommends that, to the extent such matters are not addressed by the White Paper on the Reform of Australia’s Tax System, the Treasury should prepare and publish a study of the influence of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on home purchase affordability and on the rental market (including the effect on security of tenure for renters), the effect of these arrangements on revenue, and their effect (if any) on economic productivity. This study should examine the likely effects of alternative taxation treatments of investor housing. Alternative approaches considered in this study (including, where appropriate, in combination) should include:
    (a) a housing-specific ‘quarantine’ approach, wherein losses for investment properties can only be deducted against rental income, with provision for losses in excess of rental income to be carried forward and deducted against future rental income and capital gains;
    (b) a broader ‘quarantine’ approach, wherein interest expenses on all investments, including but not limited to housing assets, are only deductible in any given year up to the amount of investment income earned in that year, with provision for losses in excess of this amount to be carried forward and deducted against future investment income and capital gains;
    (c) limiting the application of negative gearing arrangements to new housing stock, or designated new affordable housing stock;
    (d) limiting the application of negative gearing to a certain number of properties (assessing options for various limits in this regard);
    (e) options for phasing out negative gearing on investment housing;
    (f) applying the savings income discount recommended in the Henry Review to investment housing, with consideration given to the impact of this approach both with and without the implementation of the Henry Review’s recommendations in relation to housing supply and housing assistance; and
    (g) reducing or removing the capital gains tax discount for investment properties, or reverting to the pre-1999 system of taxing real rather than nominal capital gains on investment assets.
  14. The committee recommends that, to the extent state and territory governments maintain first home buyer grants, they apply appropriate value caps and limit their availability to new housing stock (with appropriate exceptions for certain groups of buyers), and consider introducing means testing to ensure that the grants are appropriately targeted.
  15. The committee recommends that the Australian Government consider introducing a scheme designed to assist first home buyers save for a home deposit, drawing as appropriate on the experiences of the First Home Saver Account scheme.
  16. The committee recommends that all governments, through the proposed ministerial council on housing and homelessness (see recommendation 2) or another appropriate intergovernmental forum, investigate ways to expand shared equity programs, including both government-backed and private-sector backed programs. The committee further recommends that, as part of this process, consideration be given to other mechanisms to facilitate affordable home ownership, such as community land trusts, rent to buy schemes, and the like, and consider the inclusion of such mechanisms within the national affordable housing plan proposed at recommendation 4, or the National Affordable Housing Agreement.
  17. The committee recommends that the government investigate new policy settings that will address barriers to downsizing (or ‘rightsizing’) by retirees, including schemes along the lines of the Housing Help for Seniors pilot.
  18. As a national policy issue, affordable home ownership tends to overshadow affordable renting even though many Australians struggle to access affordable and appropriate housing in the rental market. With this in mind, the committee recommends that the Australian Government recognise affordable renting as a mainstream form of tenure in Australia and place it prominently on the national policy agenda. Given that renting will be the only form of housing for many Australians, one of the key challenges for government is to change the traditional view of renting as a shortterm transitional phase. The committee recommends that the Australian Government in collaboration with the states and territories, through the recommended ministerial council on housing and homelessness within COAG, start the urgent process of turning around this acceptance of short-term insecure tenure as normal. As a first step, the committee recommends that the proposed ministerial council consider tenancy regulations in the various jurisdictions with a view to delivering greater security for long-term renters.
  19. Considering the evidence presented to this inquiry, the committee recommends that the states and territories review their tenancy laws to ensure that all rental properties are required to meet minimum standards.
  20. The committee also recommends the Australian Government:
    • together with the states and territories, investigate national minimum standards that would set specific minimum standards including security of tenure, stability and fairness of rent prices, a new efficiency and comfort standard, safety and security of the home, and better protection for groups in marginal housing;
    • review (and increase) funding levels and access to tenancy advice services;
    • in recognition of the value of tenancy advice services, make funding through the National Affordable Housing Agreement (NAHA) conditional on the states and territories ensuring that they have in place adequate tenancy advisory services; and
    • include as a priority for the re-established Housing Supply Council (see recommendation 2) to review and publish detail on the current national rental affordability gap.
  21. Recognising the reluctance of tenants to exercise their rights under the respective residential tenancies legislation in each state, the committee recommends that the states review their existing system for settling tenancy disputes. The committee recommends further that the states consider establishing an independent body such as an ombudsman or giving specific powers to their consumer affairs agencies to act for tenants. Again, the committee recommends that the Australian Government act as a catalyst through the COAG process to encourage the states and territories to establish dispute resolution bodies that provide easier and less expensive access to a mechanism for the resolution of tenancy matters.
  22. The committee recognises that public housing has now become the housing of last resort for many Australians with supply unable to meet the demand and waiting lists far too long. With this situation in mind, the committee recommends that the Australian Government, together with the states and territories, commit to retaining an adequate supply of public housing with the goal of increasing the overall proportion of public housing as a percentage of housing stock. Targets should be established for both the proportion of social housing and the reduction in existing waiting lists as part of the national housing plan, working through COAG and the re-established National Housing Supply Council. The initial goal would be for the Australian Government together with the states and territories to fund public housing in order to lift the percentage of public housing from its current low base and to reach agreement on a plan to achieve this objective.  The committee recommends further that an underlying principle shaping the development or redevelopment of public housing must be to prevent the concentration of people with complex problems in the same locality and in locations removed from important services—transport, education, health, welfare and employment.
  23. The committee recommends that the Australian Government request the Productivity Commission undertake an inquiry into the merits of transferring public housing to the community housing sector with particular emphasis on the advantages and disadvantages of transferring property title.
  24. Consistent with the recommendation for the Australian Government to increase the overall proportion of public housing as a percentage of housing stock, the committee recommends that the Australian Government together with the states and territories commit to achieving a higher proportion of overall social housing as a percentage of Australia’s housing stock. This recommendation recognises that currently social housing in Australia forms only a small proportion of Australia’s housing stock and is falling far short of meeting demand.
  25. The committee recommends that the Australian Government in collaboration with the states and territories monitor carefully the transfer of public housing stock to the community sector to ensure that this transfer does not adversely affect tenants of public housing or cause them unnecessary anxiety if required to vacate their dwelling. The recommendation is intended to ensure that tenants are consulted about the changes and that their rights as tenants, including security of tenure, of rent levels, and of access to dispute resolution mechanisms is preserved.
  26. In light of the anticipated rise in the number of older Australians in the private rental market, and the insecure tenancy confronting many older renters, the committee recommends that the Australian Government look closely at its aged care policy so that it takes account of the particular difficulties confronting older Australians in the rental market. The aim would be to determine how policies designed to assist older Australians remain in their home could take better account of, and accommodate, the added difficulties for older people accessing safe and secure housing and in conducting modifications to rental dwellings, and more broadly renting in the private rental market.
  27. The committee recommends that the Australian Government together with the states and territories commit to ensuring that adequate funding be made available so that women and children escaping domestic violence are housed in secure and appropriate housing with the necessary support network that would allow them to remain in a safe environment. This approach would mean that women and their children would experience as little social and educational disruption as possible and that the pathway to more permanent housing would be easier. A priority would be to consider the introduction of programs throughout Australia such as New South Wales’ Staying Home Leaving Violence initiative, which is designed to protect women who want to live separately from a violent husband or partner, but remain in their home. The committee also recommends the Australian Government reverse the cuts to the capital program in National Partnership Agreement on Homelessness (NPAH) and apply needs-based supply and services program as part of the national affordable housing platform in recommendation 30 (the cuts are discussed in chapter 18).
  28. The committee recommends that, in its consideration of current tenancy law, the proposed ministerial council also place a high priority on the obligations and responsibility of landlords when it comes to house modifications for those with particular housing needs. The committee recommends that the council look at measures, such as tax incentives, to encourage landlords to improve the energy efficiency of their properties and to make required modifications for tenants with disability.
  29. The committee recommends that housing should be included in the Prime Minister’s Closing the Gap report: that access to affordable and appropriate housing must be regarded in the same context as Indigenous education, health and employment.
  30. The committee recommends that the Australian Government:
    • take a definite and high profile role in placing affordable housing at the forefront of government policy across Australia;
    • make a strong and certain recommitment to NPAH (including considering reintroducing ongoing capital component) and its continuation for at least ten years;
    • task Homelessness Australia with investigating and quantifying the service delivery gap to people experiencing homelessness, and commit to funding NPAH to meet that gap;
    • recommit to the target to at least halve homelessness by 2025 (originally set at 2020 in the 2008 White Paper) with set milestone at two yearly intervals to track and report on progress and to offer supported accommodation to all rough sleepers who want it;
    • work to achieve multi-party support for this long-term goal and, noting that this problem cannot be solved at any one level of government, encourage states and territories to commit to this target and to coordinate their response;
    • take a longer-term approach when funding programs or agreements that would provide certainty of funding so that organisations and people engaged in delivering programs can, with confidence, plan ahead and seek to achieve continuity in the services they provide to homeless people; and
    • introduce an urgent capital program with the Australian Government and the states sharing responsibility for funding through NPAH to provide fast build, sustainable and appropriate emergency housing and affordable rental housing to meet the needs of Australians rough sleeping and seeking appropriate housing, with the target of housing by 2020 all rough sleepers who seek to be housed.
  31. Noting that much of the evidence presented before this committee was consistent with the Australian National Audit Office’s (ANAO) findings on the implementation of NPAH, the committee recommends that COAG establish a working group to review the ANAO’s findings and reassess the implementation of NPAH to ensure that NPAH has:
    • clear performance measures that can be tracked and verified;
    • a requirement for states and territories to report to government on their expenditure on housing under NPAH complemented by a reporting framework that measures the implementation of reforms against set benchmarks and the extent to which they are being delivered on the ground;
    • Commonwealth funding linked to the achievement of agreed milestones; and • investigate Centrelink as a one stop shop to assist people experiencing or at risk of homelessness with referral and in-house expertise to link clients with services and housing.
  32. The committee recommends that the Australian and state and territory governments recognise the important work of advocacy and peak organisations in housing and homelessness and provide adequate support to enable them to continue to deliver their much needed services.
    The committee recommends further that the Australian Government reinstate funding for the peak bodies that represent and provide advice on homelessness, community housing and housing and tenancy policy.
  33. The committee notes that the advice provided to the committee on the Williams decision and the consequences for Commonwealth funding for housing and homelessness simply adds to the uncertainty around the future of Commonwealth funding in this area. The committee recommends that the Australian Government clarify what the consequences are for Commonwealth funding grants for housing and homelessness that flow from the Williams decision and how it intends to respond to them.
  34. The committee recommends that through COAG, the National Affordable Housing Agreement (NAHA) be reinvigorated with particular emphasis on improving accountability and transparency. The committee recommends that the following particular reforms of NAHA should be considered and acted upon:
    • expand the agreement to include all forms of housing assistance—funding for social housing, affordable rental housing, rent assistance and the various programs to support people to remain housed;
    • develop measurable benchmarks and ensure these benchmarks are used to evaluate the effectiveness of government expenditure on affordable housing;
    • improve the collection and publication of data, especially on the number of new homes added to the pool of social housing; and
    • ensure that funding is tied directly to concrete outcomes, for example, by tightening conditions on Commonwealth funding to the states that would realise growth in the stock of social housing.
  35. The committee recommends that the Federation White Paper process consider carefully NAHA in this critical area of transparency and accountability. Importantly, that the committee’s findings feed into the White Paper process with the aim to improve NAHA so that a robust evaluation and reporting framework is established ensuring that the funds allocated to improving affordable housing can be tracked and the intended outcomes measured and evaluated.
  36. The committee recommends that:
    • in the absence of any credible alternative scheme designed to increase the supply of new affordable housing and considering steps have already been taken to improve the administration and implementation of the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS), that the Australian Government continue with NRAS round 5;
    • the Federation White Paper process look at the Queensland NRAS model, which appeared to have much tighter controls over eligibility, as a means of determining where further improvements or fine-tuning could make the system more robust and effective;
    • the Federation White Paper process look at how NRAS or a replacement scheme could be reframed to take account of the particular housing circumstances of regional Australia and ensure that NRAS housing was better targeted to areas in most need; and
    • as part of the Federation White Paper process, a thorough cost benefit analysis of NRAS be undertaken, and that any such analysis include comparison of forgone revenue from demand subsidies such as the first home owners grant, and negative gearing and capital gains tax.
  37. The committee recommends that when considering NRAS, the Federation White Paper process:
    • take note of the concerns raised by many submitters and witnesses about the need for continuity and certainty in order to attract and to gain the confidence of private investors; and
    • ensure that any proposed refinement or a replacement of the scheme: • places the highest priority on restoring and building on the initial success that NRAS had in attracting private investors;
    • provides investors with certainty regarding the scheme by committing to a consistent flow of incentives extending over a period of at least five years; and
    • takes note of lessons to be learnt from NRAS such as the need for clear and tight eligibility criteria and better targeting to areas of need (the ANAO audit should provide a sound starting point).
  38. The committee recommends that the Australian Government, through legislative recognition of charitable status, resolve any uncertainty over the effect that participation in NRAS or any similar scheme would have on the tax status of entities operating as charities, or public benevolent institutions (PBIs).
  39. The committee recommends that the Australian Government:
    • review the eligibility criteria for Commonwealth Rental Assistance (CRA) to ensure that it is targeted at those most in need;
    • review the method of indexing CRA with a view to retaining its adequacy; and
    • review the adequacy of CRA.
  40. The committee recommends that the Federation White Paper process give due consideration to the proposal for the introduction of housing supply bonds using the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute’s (AHURI) research as a starting point for its consideration.
    The committee also recommends that the Australian Government establish a crosssectoral high level industry and government Housing Supply Financing Task Force, as proposed in the AHURI report. It would provide advice to governments on the potential for a Housing Supply Bond in Australia and investigate other mechanisms for private investment.

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy Lowers Growth

The RBA released their statement on monetary policy May 2015, today. In it there is no signal about future interest rate movements, but growth forecasts were lowered, to 2% in June 2015. Beyond that, the economy is now expected to grow to 3.25% in the year ended December 2016 (previously 4%). They expect unemployment to rise further to a peak of 6.5%. Inflation is expected to rise later in 2015, a little, but still within the target band. In an investigation into the cycle of dwelling investment, they find that on balance, strength in dwelling investment is likely to be sustained, supported by low interest rates and relatively strong population growth. However, difficulties in obtaining the necessary production inputs, especially suitable land with development approval in some parts of the country, are likely to limit the extent of any further pick-up in dwelling investment growth above what is currently expected.

Growth of Australia’s major trading partners was around its long-run average in 2014. It appears to have eased slightly in the early months of 2015. Commodity prices have been quite volatile over recent months, notably iron ore and oil prices, which have rebounded somewhat from recent lows. Even so, prices of Australia’s key commodity exports overall have declined since the beginning of 2015 and are well down on levels of a year ago. In large part, the declines reflect growth in the supply of commodities globally, although an easing of growth in China’s demand for some key commodities has also played a role. While there has been a further fall in Australia’s terms of trade, the Australian dollar has appreciated by around 3 per cent against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms since the previous Statement. In China, economic growth has eased further. The Chinese property market remains a source of weakness in the economy and this is flowing through to weaker demand for steel and other construction related products. Indicators for Japanese economic activity have been somewhat mixed early this year, though labour market conditions remain tight and there are tentative signs that wage growth will rise, which is expected to underpin a pick-up in domestic price pressures. Economic growth in the rest of east. Asia looks to have slowed a little in the March quarter.

Growth in the US economy moderated in the March quarter, largely reflecting the temporary effects of disruptions related to severe weather and industrial action in west coast ports. Meanwhile, the US labour market has continued to improve and wage growth has picked up. Economic activity in the euro area is recovering at a gradual pace.

Despite slightly weaker-than-expected conditions early in 2015, growth of Australia’s major trading partners is expected to remain around its long-run average pace in 2015 and 2016. Growth will continue to be supported by very stimulatory monetary policies in most parts of the world. Core inflation rates are below many central banks’ targets. The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to start increasing the US policy rate until the second half of 2015, while the People’s Bank of China has recently taken steps to boost liquidity and has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy stance more generally. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan continue to expand their balance sheets in line with their previously announced policies. Accordingly, finance remains readily available amid very favourable pricing conditions, notwithstanding the sharp rise in sovereign yields in recent days. Also, the low oil price is providing support to Australia’s trading partners, most of which are net oil importers.

The available data suggest that the domestic economy continued to grow at a below-trend pace in the March quarter. Dwelling investment and resource exports appear to have continued growing strongly and there is evidence that the growth of household consumption has been gaining some momentum over the past six months or so. However, investment in the mining sector is declining noticeably and non-mining business investment remains subdued.  Moreover, indicators of nonmining business investment intentions suggest that a significant pick-up is not in prospect over the next year or so.

Conditions in the established housing market remain strong, especially in Sydney and to a lesser extent in Melbourne. Outside these cities, however, housing price growth has declined. Forward-looking indicators, including building approvals, suggest that dwelling investment overall will continue to grow strongly over coming quarters. Housing credit growth has been little changed at a pace that is around the long-term growth of household income. Growth of housing credit for investors remains close to 10 per cent on an annual basis, with no sign of growth either increasing or decreasing in the period ahead. Very low interest rates and increasing housing prices helped to support a pick-up in the growth of household consumption over 2014. More recent retail sales data suggest that consumption growth maintained its pace into the early months of 2015. Measures of consumer sentiment remain a little below average.

Export volumes continue to increase, aided in the March quarter by the absence of substantial weather-related disruptions to mining and shipping operations across the country. Resource export volumes are expected to continue growing as new production capacity for iron ore and liquefied natural gas comes on line over 2015. However, the decline in commodity prices in recent quarters has put pressure on higher-cost producers in the iron ore and coal sectors. While the substantial declines recorded in mining investment have been much as expected, producers have responded to lower  commodity prices with further cost-cutting. Some smaller, higher-cost producers of iron ore and coal in Australia have announced the curtailment of production, although the affected mines accounted for only a relatively small share of Australian production in 2014.

Non-mining business investment has remained subdued even though many of the conditions for a recovery have been in place for some time. Access to funding does not appear to be constraining business decisions; lending rates on the outstanding stock of business (and housing) loans have continued to edge lower and business credit growth has been picking up. Also, surveys suggest that business conditions in the non-mining sector are close to average. However, forward-looking measures of business confidence remain a bit below average and non-residential building approvals are relatively subdued. Business liaison suggests that firms have spare capacity and are still waiting to see a more substantial improvement in demand conditions before they commit to major new investment projects. In line with that, surveys of investment intentions do not indicate that there will be much of a pick-up in non-mining capital investment over the next year or so.

There continues to be excess capacity in the labour market, though the most recent labour force data suggest that employment growth has increased over the past six months or more, to be above the rate of population growth. The participation rate has picked up slightly, and the unemployment rate has been stable at about 6¼ per cent since mid 2014. Forward-looking indicators of labour demand, which had picked up somewhat over the past year, have been little changed over recent months and point to modest growth of employment over coming months.

Consumer price inflation declined over the past year, reflecting substantial falls in fuel prices and the repeal of the carbon price, although the recent rebound in fuel prices should add to headline inflation somewhat in the near term. Measures of underlying inflation remained around ½–¾ per cent in the March quarter and 2¼–2½ per cent over the past year. Domestic cost pressures are generally well contained, partly because of the extended period of low growth of wages, with the result that non-tradables inflation was about 1 percentage point below its decade average over the year to March. Consumer prices related to housing increased by marginally more than their historical average, driven by inflation in new dwelling costs, which in turn reflects the strength of dwelling investment. Tradables inflation (excluding volatile items and tobacco) has picked up in response to the depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past two years or so.

Growth in the Australian economy is expected to continue at a below-average pace for a little longer than earlier anticipated and to pick up gradually to an above-average pace over 2016/17. The key forces shaping the outlook are much as they have been for some time. Recent data suggest that consumption growth has continued to pick up gradually, supported by very low interest rates and relatively strong population growth. Forwardlooking indicators continue to suggest that dwelling investment will continue to grow strongly in the near term. The momentum building in household demand will, in time, provide some impetus to nonmining business investment, even though indicators of investment intentions suggest that non-mining business investment is not likely to pick up over coming quarters, as had been expected at the time of the February Statement. Export growth is also expected to continue making a substantial contribution to GDP growth. Mining investment, fiscal consolidation and the falling terms of trade are expected to impart an offsetting restraint on growth over the next couple of years at least. The profile for GDP growth implies that there will be excess capacity in the labour market for longer than previously thought. The unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually and peak a little later than envisaged in the February Statement, before gradually declining towards the end of the forecast period. Wage growth is not expected to increase much from its current low levels over the next two years or so. As a result, domestic labour cost pressures are likely to remain well contained and underlying inflation is expected to be consistent with the inflation target throughout the forecast period.

The risks to the outlook for the global economy appear roughly balanced, other than for China where risks remain tilted to the downside. Weakness in the Chinese property market and constraints on the ability of local governments to fund infrastructure projects continue to represent key sources of uncertainty for China’s economic growth and its demand for commodities. Any significant change in the demand for steel in China would affect the prices of iron ore and coking coal. Also, if high cost producers of iron ore in China were to curtail production significantly, this would place upward pressure on prices.  Developments in China and their impact on commodity prices are also likely to affect the outlook for the exchange rate, which is another important consideration for the forecasts for the domestic economy. Further depreciation of the exchange rate seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices, although increasingly divergent monetary policies in the major economies are also likely to have an important bearing on exchange rate developments.

Domestically, the forecasts embody a further gradual pick-up in consumption growth and decline in the saving ratio. However, if households respond to changes in interest rates and asset prices to the same degree as they did prior to the global financial crisis, this would support higher consumption growth and imply a lower saving ratio than embodied in the forecasts. Alternatively, if households are less inclined to bring forward their consumption than has been factored into the forecasts, perhaps because they do not wish to increase their leverage, consumption growth would be weaker and the saving ratio higher than forecast.

Business investment remains a significant source of uncertainty. Mining investment is expected to fall significantly, but the size of the fall and the impact of lower-than-expected commodity prices remain uncertain. There are also significant risks to the forecasts for non-mining investment. While the latest capital expenditure survey implies a weaker profile for non-mining business investment over the next year than currently forecast, the first estimate of investment intentions for 2015/16 is subject to considerable uncertainty and the survey covers only about half of actual non-mining business investment. Moreover, many of the preconditions for a recovery in non-mining business investment are in place, so it is possible that the recovery could begin earlier or be stronger than currently forecast. The adjustment to the decline in the terms of trade and mining investment over recent years has resulted in a rise in the  unemployment rate and a pronounced decline in wage growth in the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a little further from here, before it begins to decline. It is possible that employment growth will be stronger than expected and the unemployment rate will not increase to the extent anticipated, although this could probably only be achieved with ongoing moderation in wage growth.

The Reserve Bank Board reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February meeting. At its March and April meetings, the Board kept the cash rate steady, but indicated that further easing may be appropriate. Over that period, incoming data have generally provided more confidence that growth in household expenditure is gaining some momentum, consistent with the forecasts presented in the February Statement. However, other information, including the forward-looking indicators of investment, suggested that overall growth will remain below trend for longer than had previously been expected. Accordingly, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet and domestic cost pressures are expected to remain subdued and inflation well contained. The Board noted that although financial conditions are very accommodative, the exchange rate continues to offer less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy. It also noted that while housing price growth is very strong in Sydney, it has declined across much of the rest of the country, and there has been little change to the growth of housing credit in recent months. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market.

At its May meeting the Board judged that, under these circumstances, it was appropriate to reduce the cash rate by a further 25 basis points to provide some additional support to economic activity. This could be expected to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand and is consistent with achieving the inflation target. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time.

APRA Finalises New Disclosure Requirements for ADIs

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has today released a response to submissions paper and final versions of Prudential Standard APS 110 Capital Adequacy and Prudential Standard APS 330 Public Disclosure, which incorporate new disclosure requirements for a limited number of authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs). These standards take effect from 1 July 2015. In most cases, the first set of disclosures will be based on September 2015 reporting dates.

With regard to capital, the Prudential Standard requires an authorised deposit-taking institution (ADI) to maintain adequate capital, on both a Level 1 and Level 2 basis, to act as a buffer against the risk associated with its activities. An ADI must have an Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) that must: (a) be adequately documented, with the documentation made available to APRA on request; and (b) be approved by the Board initially, and when significant changes are made.

An ADI must, on an annual basis, provide a report on the implementation of its ICAAP to APRA (ICAAP report). A copy of the ICAAP report must be provided to APRA no later than three months from the date on which the report has been prepared.

APRA will determine prudential capital requirements (PCRs) for an ADI. The PCRs, expressed as a percentage of total risk-weighted assets, will be set by reference to Common Equity Tier 1 Capital, Tier 1 Capital and Total Capital. PCRs may be determined at Level 1, Level 2 or both.

The minimum PCRs that an ADI must maintain at all times are:

(a) a Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio of 4.5 per cent;
(b) a Tier 1 Capital ratio of 6.0 per cent; and
(c) a Total Capital ratio of 8.0 per cent.

APRA may determine higher PCRs for an ADI and may change an ADI’s PCRs at any time.

From 1 January 2016, an ADI must hold a capital conservation buffer above the PCR for Common Equity Tier 1 Capital. The capital conservation buffer is 2.5 per cent of the ADI’s total risk-weighted assets, unless determined otherwise by APRA. The sum of the Common Equity Tier 1 PCR plus the capital conservation buffer determined by APRA will be no less than 7.0 per cent of the ADI’s total risk-weighted assets. Any amount of Common Equity Tier 1 Capital required to meet an ADI’s PCRs for Tier 1 Capital or Total Capital, above the amount required to meet the PCR for Common Equity Tier 1 Capital, is not eligible to be included in the capital conservation buffer.

From 1 January 2016, APRA may require an ADI to hold additional Common Equity Tier 1 Capital, of between zero and 2.5 per cent of total risk-weighted assets, as a countercyclical capital buffer. An ADI with credit exposures in geographic locations outside Australia must calculate any countercyclical capital buffer requirement as the weighted average of the buffers that are applied by the regulatory authorities in jurisdictions in which the ADI has exposures. APRA will inform ADIs of any decision to set, or increase, the level of the countercyclical capital buffer up to 12 months before the date from which it applies. Any decision by APRA to decrease the level of a countercyclical capital buffer will take effect immediately.

An ADI or authorised NOHC (as applicable) must obtain APRA’s written approval prior to making any planned reduction in capital, whether at Level 1 or Level 2.

An ADI or an authorised NOHC (as applicable) must notify APRA, in accordance with section 62A of the Banking Act, of any breach or prospective breach of the capital requirements contained in this Prudential Standard and inform APRA of any remedial actions taken or planned to deal with the breach.

 

 

 

Wall Street’s Thinking About Creating Derivatives on Peer-to-Peer Loans

Interesting article from Bloomberg Business on the continuing morphing of P2P lending into the main stream, and potentially wrapped up into derivatives.

It began with a seemingly wacky idea to reinvent banking as we know it. But no one is scoffing at peer-to-peer lending anymore — least of all, Wall Street. Barely a decade old, “P2P” has gone mainstream and is now being co-opted by some of the big financial players it was supposed to bypass. Investment funds can’t get enough of this business, which involves lending to people over the Internet and hoping they pay you back. Investors are snapping up the loans directly, while the banks are bundling them into securities, much as they did with subprime mortgages.

Now peer-to-peer lending and its Internet enablers like LendingClub Corp., the industry leader, are being pulled into the high-octane world of derivatives. While many hail Wall Street’s growing involvement, others warn investors could get carried away, as they did during the dot-com era and again during the mortgage mania. The new derivatives could help people hedge their risks, but they could also lure speculators into the market.

“It feels like the year 2000 again,” said Frank Rotman, a partner at QED Investors, an Alexandria, Virginia-based venture-capital firm that has invested in Prosper Marketplace Inc., Social Finance Inc. and 13 other P2P lending platforms. “Everyone is chasing ’it,’ but they don’t know what ’it’ is, and that is kind of scary.”

Lured by Yield

It’s easy to see why investors are so enthusiastic. In today’s low-interest-rate world, high-quality P2P loans yield about 7.6 percent. Two-year U.S. Treasuries, by comparison, were yielding a mere 0.6 percent on Friday.

But P2P’s rapid growth also raises questions about the potential risks, including whether the firms involved might lower their standards to stay competitive. During the mortgage boom, Wall Street’s securitization machine fueled questionable lending practices. Derivatives tied to the debt were blamed for spreading their risks around the globe, and then amplifying investors’ losses when the housing market crashed.

Now a firm led by Michael Edman, a veteran of Morgan Stanley, is creating derivatives that will give investors a new way to bet for — or against — peer-to-peer loan performance. Edman has ridden credit booms before: he was a figure in “The Big Short,” Michael Lewis’s best-seller about the buildup to the housing bubble of the 2000s.

“It’s a high-coupon asset that’s had very good returns for the short period of time it’s been around,” Edman said of P2P loans. “I don’t have reason to believe that’s going to change dramatically anytime soon, but there are bad loans out there.”

Satisfying Demand

Derivatives could help satisfy investors’ demand for P2P assets, while also helping others hedge risks on loans they’ve already bought. The instruments could also bring more investors swooping into the market simply to place speculative wagers.

Brendan Dickinson, principal at Canaan Partners, a $4.2 billion asset firm based in New York and Menlo Park, California, is counting on the former.

“If you could create a synthetic product that mimics all the features of a P2P loan and had the same risk and yield tradeoff, there would be a lot of demand to buy that paper,” said Dickinson, whose firm has invested in LendingClub and Orchard Platform and is looking to invest $5 million to $10 million in a firm trying to create derivatives on P2P loans. Other small firms are racing to create P2P derivatives before big banks try to muscle in.

Derivatives Pioneer

Edman, who runs New York-based Synthetic Lending Marketplace, or SLMX, has some high-profile experience. In the early 2000s, he helped invent a kind of credit-default swap that enabled some Wall Street firms to bet against U.S. subprime mortgage bonds.

But Edman sees little resemblance between the boom-era mortgage market of and the current peer-to-peer market. He said his derivatives will help investors hedge their bets and also improve the pricing of the underlying loans.

Indeed, Edman said the ability to short the loans could curb some of the enthusiasm for this asset class before any of the debt sours.

“If derivatives in mortgage-backed securities existed in 1998, we wouldn’t have gotten to the point that we did in terms of the bubble in mortgages,” Edman said. “This keeps a market honest.”

Investors are already showing some skepticism. Less than a year after going public, LendingClub is the sixth-most bet against stock on the New York Stock Exchange.

‘Legitimate Need’

LendingClub chief executive officer Renaud Laplanche said he’s aware of the interest to bet against the market. Derivatives that give investors the ability to protect against losses on the loans the company arranges is just smart risk-management, he said.

Spokeswomen for Prosper and Social Finance declined to comment.

SLMX is still working on documentation for the derivatives, which are likely to take the form of credit-linked notes with total-return swaps, rather than the credit-default swaps some blame for worsening the financial crisis. The firm has teamed up with a broker-dealer, AK Capital LLC, to execute trades and hopes to make its first transaction as early as this year.

Rotman said another firm, PeerIQ, has discussed with him the possibility of creating contracts that would essentially zero in on loans arranged by LendingClub, the industry leader, which has facilitated $7.6 billion of loans since 2006. PeerIQ – – whose financial backers include John Mack, the former CEO of Morgan Stanley and Vikram Pandit, the former CEO of Citigroup Inc. — hasn’t publicly disclosed any plans; a spokesman for the firm declined to comment. Those men recently led a $6 million investment round for the company’s analytics business.

LendingClub’s chief executive officer Laplanche called PeerIQ a third-party partner, no different than other companies seeking to utilize the company’s public data.

“It is a perfectly legitimate need from many of our investors, especially large ones,” Laplanche said.

Macquarie Lifts FY 2015 Profit 27%

Macquarie Group today announced a net profit after tax attributable to ordinary shareholders of $A1,604 million for the full year ended 31 March 2015 (FY15), up 27 per cent on the full year ended 31 March 2014 (FY14) and above expectations. Profit for the second half of the year (2H15) was $A926 million, up 37 per cent on the first half (1H15). The six months to 31 March 2015 saw Macquarie’s annuity-style businesses (Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), Corporate and Asset Finance (CAF) and Banking and Financial Services (BFS)) continue to perform well with combined net profit contribution1 up four per cent on 1H15 and up 29 per cent on 2H14. Macquarie’s capital markets facing businesses (Macquarie Securities Group (MSG), Macquarie Capital and Commodities and Financial Markets (CFM)) also delivered an improved result with combined net profit contribution1 up significantly on 1H15, and up 24 per cent on 2H14. Macquarie’s annuity-style businesses’ FY15 combined net profit contribution1 increased by $A710 million, or 33 per cent, on FY14. Macquarie’s capital markets facing businesses’ FY15 combined net profit contribution1 increased by $A216 million, or 19 per cent, on FY14.

Net operating income of $A9.3 billion for FY15 was up 14 per cent, while total operating expenses of $A6.8 billion were up 12 per cent on the prior year. Key drivers of the change from the prior year were:

  • A 17 per cent increase in combined net interest and trading income to $A3.8 billion, up from $A3.3 billion in FY14, resulting from loan portfolio growth for both CAF and BFS and improved trading results in CFM and MSG
  • A 24 per cent increase in fee and commission income to $A4.8 billion, up from $A3.9 billion in FY14, primarily driven by higher base and performance fees in MAM, improved levels of advisory fee income in Macquarie Capital and CFM and higher debt capital markets activity
  • An 18 per cent decrease in other operating income and charges to $A0.7 billion, from $A0.9 billion in FY14. Increased gains on business and asset sales, predominately in CAF, were offset by higher impairment charges and collective provisions as well as non-recurrence of FY14 items such as the dividend income and gain on disposal of SYD and OzForex
  • Total operating expenses increased 12 per cent, driven by: an 11 per cent increase in employment expenses resulting primarily from improved Group performance; increased technology costs due to higher development activity to support business growth as well as increased regulatory compliance; increased other operating expenses largely driven by an overall increase in the Group’s operating activity; and the impact of the depreciation of the Australian dollar on offshore expenses.

Staff numbers were 14,085 at 31 March 2015, up from 13,913 at 31 March 2014.

The income tax expense for FY15 was $A899 million, up nine per cent from $A827 million in the prior year. The effective tax rate of 35.9 per cent was down from 39.5 per cent in FY14 driven by the nature and geographic mix of income and tax uncertainties.

Retail deposits increased by 12 per cent to $A37.3 billion at 31 March 2015, with total deposits increasing during the year from $A36.9 billion to $A39.7 billion at 31 March 2015. During FY15, $A21.5 billion of new term funding was raised covering a range of sources, tenors, currencies and product types.

While Macquarie continued to build on the strength of its Australian franchise, its international income accounted for 70 per cent of the Group’s total income for FY15. This reflects the growth of international operations, particularly in the Americas which was the largest contributing region with 36 per cent of total income, as well as the favourable impact of foreign exchange movements.

The effective tax rate for FY15 was 35.9 per cent, down from 39.5 per cent in FY14.

Macquarie’s assets under management (AUM) at 31 March 2015 were $A486.3 billion, up 14 per cent from $A426.9 billion at 31 March 2014 largely due to additional investments and favourable foreign exchange and market movements.

A final ordinary dividend of $A2.00 per share (40 per cent franked), up from the 1H15 ordinary dividend of $A1.30 per share (40 per cent franked) will be paid. The total ordinary dividend payment for the year was $A3.30 per share, up from $A2.60 in the prior year. This represents an annual ordinary dividend payout ratio of 68 per cent. The record date for the final ordinary dividend is 20 May 2015 and the payment date is 2 July 2015.

Macquarie Group remains very well capitalised with APRA Basel III Group capital of $A16.1 billion at 31 March 2015, a $A2.7 billion surplus to Macquarie’s minimum regulatory capital requirement from 1 January 20167. The Bank Group APRA Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 9.7 per cent at 31 March 2015, slightly up on 31 March 2014.

MBL-May-2015-1Macquarie intends to purchase approximately $A390 million of shares on-market to satisfy the requirements of the Macquarie Group Employee Retained Equity Plan (MEREP) for FY15. The buying period for the MEREP will commence on 18 May 2015 and is expected to be completed by 10 July 20159. No discount will apply for the 2H15 Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and the shares required under the DRP are to be acquired on market.

Outlook

While the impact of future market conditions makes forecasting difficult, it is currently expected that the combined net profit contribution1 from operating groups for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY16) will be broadly in line with FY15. The FY16 tax rate is currently expected to be broadly in line with 2H15, and down on FY15. Accordingly, the FY16 result for the Group is currently expected to be slightly up on FY15.  The Group’s short term outlook remains subject to a range of challenges including: market conditions; the impact of foreign exchange; the cost of our continued conservative approach to funding and capital; and potential regulatory changes and tax uncertainties.

Regulatory update

In August 2014, APRA issued its final rules for Conglomerates with the implementation timing dependent on the outcomes of the Financial System Inquiry. Macquarie continues to work through the application of these rules with APRA and the Group’s current assessment remains that Macquarie has sufficient capital to meet the minimum APRA capital requirements for Conglomerates. Based on finalised Bank for International Settlements (BIS) leverage ratio requirements released in January 2014, the Bank Group is well in excess of the currently proposed Basel III three per cent minimum, with an estimated 6.0 per cent leverage ratio as at 31 March 2015. The leverage ratio applies to the Bank Group only. APRA published draft standards relating to the leverage ratio in September 2014 and is currently undertaking industry consultation regarding its final form.

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirements, which also only apply to the Bank Group, came into effect on 1 January 2015. As at 31 March 2015, the Bank Group’s LCR exceeded 120 per cent. Macquarie has been compliant with the LCR at all times since the ratio became a minimum requirement, with the average LCR for the first quarter of 2015 also exceeding 120 per cent. APRA has recently indicated its intention to deal with the level of capital held against mortgages, perhaps narrowing the mortgage risk weight differential between internal ratings-based (IRB) and standardised approach banks. While it remains unclear if, and to what extent, the gap will be narrowed, if the current APRA standardised approach were to be used instead of Macquarie’s IRB mortgage risk weights, the expected impact on the Bank Group’s Common Equity Tier 1 capital would be less than $A250 million.

Operating group performance

Macquarie Asset Management delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A1,450 million, up 38 per cent on the prior year. The result was driven by strong performance fee income and growth in annuity base fee income from higher assets and equity under management. AUM increased 14 per cent on the prior year to $A484.0 billion. Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets (MIRA) raised $A8.3 billion in new equity commitments during the year, invested equity of $A6.2 billion in portfolio assets across the globe and divested assets of over $A2.5 billion. Macquarie Investment Management (MIM) continued its strong investment performance, launched several new products across the fixed income, equities and alternatives asset classes, reached capacity in a number of strategies and continued to expand its global distribution network. Macquarie Specialised Investment Solutions continued to grow the Macquarie Infrastructure Debt Investment Solutions (MIDIS) business reaching second close on the UK Inflation-linked Infrastructure Debt Fund to bring total third party investor commitments to the MIDIS platform to over $A3.3 billion.

Corporate and Asset Finance delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A1,112 million, up 35 per cent on the prior year, including gains on several asset sales. CAF’s asset and loan portfolio increased 13 per cent during the year to $A28.7 billion. The corporate and real estate lending portfolio increased by 24 per cent to $A11.2 billion. There were $A4.7 billion of portfolio additions, comprising $A3.1 billion in new primary financings and $A1.6 billion of loans acquired in the secondary market. CAF’s asset finance portfolio of $A17.5 billion was up six per cent on the prior year due to the impact of the depreciation of the Australian dollar. The aircraft leasing business signed an agreement to acquire an operating lease portfolio of 90 aircraft valued at approximately $US4.0 billion, with acquisition and delivery to be completed during FY16. Throughout the year CAF also saw the continued expansion in the motor vehicle and equipment finance channels, as well as growth in the energy asset portfolio of smart meters in the UK and solar energy assets in Australia. CAF continued its securitisation activities, with $A4.0 billion of motor vehicle and equipment leases and loans securitised during FY15.

Banking and Financial Services delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A285 million, up 10 per cent on the prior year. BFS’ Australian mortgage portfolio grew by 44 per cent to $A24.5 billion, including $A2.5 billion in residential mortgage portfolios acquired during the year. This portfolio represents 1.7 per cent of the Australian mortgage market. Macquarie platform assets under administration increased by 19 per cent during the year to $A48.0 billion, while Macquarie Life inforce risk premiums increased by 17 per cent to $A223 million. Average business banking deposits increased 19 per cent over the year, with the business banking loan portfolio at $A5.2 billion as at 31 March 2015, up 27 per cent from $A4.1 billion in the prior year. Total retail deposits were up 12 per cent to $A37.3 billion. During the year BFS continued to invest in its technology to improve client experience, support growth and simplify, streamline and centralise its product and transactional functions.

Macquarie Securities Group delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A64 million, down from $A107 million in the prior year. Brokerage income remained relatively flat whilst equity capital markets activity increased on the prior year largely driven by initial public offering (IPO) activity in Australia. Certain markets experienced favourable conditions, which benefited the derivatives and trading divisions, however operating expenses (excluding brokerage, commission and trading-related expenses) were up 11 per cent on the prior year, resulting largely from investment in platforms and processes driven by regulatory compliance requirements, as well as restructuring costs from the exit of Structured Products. Macquarie was ranked No.1 in Australia for IPOs and No.2 for Australian equity and equity related deals in calendar year 2014. MSG continued to build on its expertise as one of the largest derivative warrant issuers in the Asia-Pacific region, holding No.1 market share for listed warrants in Singapore and Malaysia, No.3 in Thailand and No.7 in Hong Kong.

Macquarie Capital delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A430 million, up 54 per cent on the prior year. The business advised on 470 transactions worth $A141 billion and was ranked No.1 for announced and completed merger and acquisitions (M&A) deals in Australia in calendar year 2014. During the year, Macquarie Capital advised Freeport LNG on its landmark $US11.0 billion equity and debt raising to project finance its LNG export facility in Texas; was Joint Lead Manager on the $A5.7 billion IPO of Medibank Private, the largest Australian IPO in calendar year 2014 and the second largest Australian IPO ever; advised Emperador on its acquisition of Whyte & Mackay from United Spirits for £430 million; and was sole Sponsor and exclusive Financial Adviser to IHS Lothian for the project finance facilities of £185 million to the Royal Hospital for Sick Children public private partnership project in Edinburgh.

Commodities and Financial Markets delivered a net profit contribution1 of $A835 million, up 15 per cent on the prior year. The improved result reflected a general improvement in market conditions compared to the prior year. The Energy Markets business was a significant contributor to CFM’s overall result with revenues generated across the global energy platform, particularly in Global Oil and North American Gas. The Metals, Mining and Agriculture business had an overall improved result on the prior year, primarily driven by continued growth in the base metals platform across financing, physical execution and hedging activities, however further provisions for impairment were taken on underperforming resources investments and loans. Volatility and volumes improved in foreign exchange, interest rates and futures markets in the second half. US credit markets were mixed, however debt capital markets volumes and fees increased as M&A activity increased. The securitisation and origination businesses experienced continued growth and increased transaction flows, particularly in the UK and Europe.

IMF Regional Economic Outlook Update

The IMF released their Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific to April 2015 today. China’s growth is predicted to fall, Australia’s to rise a little, on a comparative basis, our banks hold lower capital than many across the region, and the IMF stress the importance of macroprudential measures to reign in house prices, and fiscal stimulus to support economic growth. A few selected highlights:

Asynchronous monetary policies in major advanced economies in response to divergent cyclical conditions have contributed to large and rapid exchange rate realignments. Robust growth and the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States, coupled with the start of quantitative easing in the euro area and further monetary stimulus in Japan, have caused the value of the major reserve currencies to diverge sharply. While the dollar has gained substantially against most other currencies, rising about 9½ percent on a trade-weighted basis since the end of June 2014, the yen has fallen by about 10½ percent in nominal effective terms over the same period, and the euro has been broadly unchanged.

Against this backdrop, a number of Asia and Pacific currencies have appreciated in nominal effective terms since mid-2014. This reflects somewhat greater stability of Asian currencies relative to the dollar than implied by the share of the United States in these countries’ gross trade. In contrast, the currencies of commodity exporting Australia, Malaysia, and New Zealand have depreciated in nominal effective terms
(Figure 1.7).

IMF-Exchange-May-2015Changes in real effective exchange rates have been broadly in line with changes in their nominal counterparts. However, using weights based on domestic value added in exports, appreciations of most Asian currencies have been less pronounced, suggesting a more modest erosion

Bank balance sheets have strengthened across most of Asia. Bank profitability has been high in many countries and, together with injections of new Basel III–compliant equity, has contributed to an increase in Tier 1 capital (Figure 1.23). Note that Australia is at the lower end of Tier 1.

IMF-Capiital-Ratios-2015

While still outperforming most other large economies, China’s growth rate is expected to continue to edge lower over the medium term as rebalancing proceeds. Growth is projected to ease to 6.8 percent in 2015 and to 6.3 percent in 2016 as the correction in the residential and related sectors continues to drag on investment.

The downturn in the global commodity cycle will continue to affect Australia’s economy, with related investment coming off historic highs. However, supportive monetary policy and a weaker exchange rate will underpin nonresource activity, helping to edge up growth in 2015 to 2.8 percent, rising to 3.2 percent in 2016 (broadly unchanged from projections in the October 2014 WEO).

In Australia and New Zealand, consumers gain from the oil price windfall while forgone mining receipts and royalties have a negative effect on mining companies and the fiscal accounts.

In addition to strong microprudential supervision and regulation, protecting financial stability will require proactive use of macroprudential policies to increase resilience to shocks and contain the buildup of systemic risk associated with changes in financial conditions. In fact, greater reliance on macroprudential policies may be needed where the fi nancial cycle is not well synchronized with the real economy cycle (Australia, Hong Kong SAR, Korea), which may be more likely in the presence of strong unconventional monetary policies in the major economies. To avert overheating or overinvestment in real estate that could threaten the stability of financial systems, eliminating the preferential tax treatment of real estate (for example, by raising taxes on real estate capital gains) and tightening regulations on credit financing for real estate development and purchase (for example, imposing binding loan-to-value limits and debt-service-to-income ceilings) are advised. Macroprudential policies and capital flow measures should not substitute for appropriate macroeconomic policy reactions to volatile capital flows and asset price swings.

On the other hand, fiscal stimulus, or a slower pace of consolidation, may be appropriate for economies facing temporary adverse terms-of-trade shifts or where output is below the full-capacity level (Australia, Korea). But care should be taken to ensure that stimulus is reversed during cyclical upturns and to avoid conflating weaker potential growth with a temporary growth dip.

NAB 1H 2015 Results – UK Exit, Stage Left – DFA Research Alert

NAB today announced their results for 1H 2015, which completes the updates from the major banks this week. Somewhat similar themes, with volumes up but lending margins down, offset by some deposit repricing and lower provisions. The hand of the regulator can be seen on the Australian home loan business, but significantly NAB outlined an exit path from the UK requiring capital, and other strategic initiatives, and a rights issue. No commentary on the potential demands by higher regulatory capital.

On a statutory basis, net profit attributable to owners of the Company was $3.44 billion, an increase of $584 million or 20.4% compared with March 2014. Cash earnings were $3.32 billion, an increase of $170 million or 5.4% with improved performances across all major businesses. This was in line with expectations. Excluding prior period UK conduct related charges, cash earnings rose 0.3%. Analysis of the results shows a trade off between volume growth and margin.

NAB-May-2015-1Revenue increased 3.1%. Excluding gains on the UK Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan portfolio sale and SGA asset sales, revenue rose 2.2% benefitting from higher lending balances, the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates, stronger Markets and Treasury income and increased NAB Wealth net income. Group net interest margin (NIM) declined 2 basis points over the year and 1 basis point when compared to the September 2014 half year.

NAB-May-2015-2Expenses were broadly flat but excluding a fine paid in relation to UK conduct and prior period UK conduct related charges rose 4.0%. The increase mainly reflects the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates, investment in the Group’s priority customer segments and higher technology costs, combined with occupancy and Enterprise Bargaining wage increases.

Improved asset quality resulted in a total charge to provide for bad and doubtful debts (B&DDs) of $455 million, down 13.8%. This primarily reflects lower charges in UK Banking and NAB UK CRE. Compared to the September 2014 half year, the B&DD charge rose 30.4% due to releases from the Group economic cycle adjustment and NAB UK CRE overlay of $104 million in the prior period which were not repeated. Group asset quality metrics continued to improve over the period. The ratio of Group 90+ days past due and gross impaired assets to gross loans and acceptances of 0.85% at 31 March 2015 was 34 basis points lower compared to 30 September 2014 and 67 basis points lower compared to
31 March 2014.

The Group’s Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 8.87% as at 31 March 2015, an increase of 24 basis points from September 2014. As previously announced, the Group’s CET1 target ratio from 1 January 2016 remains between 8.75% – 9.25%, based on current regulatory requirements. The interim dividend is 99 cents per share (cps) fully franked, unchanged from the prior interim dividend, and below market expectations.

For the March 2015 half year the Group has raised approximately $17.3 billion of term wholesale funding. The weighted average term to maturity of the funds raised by the Group for the March 2015 half year was approximately 5.0 years.

The Group’s quarterly average liquidity coverage ratio as at 31 March 2015 was 118%. The ratio of collective provision to credit risk weighted assets was 1.01% at 31 March 2015 compared to 0.83% at 30 September 2014 with the increase over the period reflecting transition to AASB. The ratio of specific provisions to impaired assets was 35.5% at 31 March 2015, which compares to 35.3% at 30 September 2014 and 34.8% at 31 March 2014.

There were two significant strategic announcements in the results.

UK Exit – this was signalled in October 2014 as a result of the strategy to focus on the Australian and New Zealand franchise. Significant work has since been undertaken on various exit options, in particular public market options which offer increased certainty on the ability to transact and timing. While remaining open to a trade sale, NAB intends to pursue a public market option of a demerger of approximately 70-80% of Clydesdale Bank’s holding company National Australia Group Europe Ltd and its subsidiaries (Listco) to NAB shareholders and a sale of the balance by way of IPO (approximately 20-30%) to institutional investors. A demerger accelerates the full exit of the UK business, as opposed to a prolonged multi-staged public market sell-down, and allows an exit to be targeted by the end of this calendar year, subject to market conditions. The consequences for NAB will be a reduction in cash earnings on separation of Listco with shares in Listco to be received by NAB shareholders, whilst  NAB cash ROE should increase on separation; the transaction expected to have a broadly neutral impact on NAB’s capital position excluding the capital support to Listco which will receive capital support of £1.7bn is, from separation, expected to be a full deduction from NAB CET1. Actual losses lower than £1.7bn should result in a capital release for NAB over time. Post separation, future actual conduct cost will be recognised by NAB within discontinued operations outside of cash earnings with no impact on capital (netted against £1.7bn support).  No impact on NAB’s credit ratings expected

NAB Wealth today announced it has received APRA approval for its life insurance arm to enter into a reinsurance arrangement with a major global reinsurer for approximately 21% of its in-force retail advised insurance book. The transaction is expected to release approximately $500 million of CET1 capital (13 basis points) to the NAB Group, and represents approximately 15% of NAB Wealth’s life insurance embedded value. This is expected to result in a reduction in NAB Wealth cash earnings of approximately $25 million per annum.

Also, NAB will be undertaking a 2 for 25 fully underwritten pro rata accelerated renounceable rights issue with retail rights trading (the Entitlement Offer) at an offer price of $28.50, to raise approximately $5.5 billion. Approximately 194 million new NAB ordinary shares are to be issued (approximately 8.0% of issued capital). New shares issued under the Entitlement Offer will rank equally with existing shares from the date of allotment. New shares will not however be entitled to the interim dividend for the half year ended 31 March 2015 of 99 cps because they will not be issued before the dividend record date.

Looking at the segmentals, Australian Banking cash earnings were $2,574 million, an increase of 4.0%, with revenue the key driver. Revenue rose 3.9% reflecting a stronger trading performance, combined with higher volumes of housing and business lending, partly offset by weaker margins. Expenses rose 3.8% driven by additional service roles and front line business bankers, combined with Enterprise Bargaining wage increases and higher technology costs. Cost to income rose by 10 basis points to 40.7%. Asset quality metrics continued to improve and B&DD charges of $366 million fell 2.4%, benefitting from lower business impairment activity partly offset by higher collective provision charges including a $49 million overlay for agriculture and resource sectors. NIM declined 3 basis points to 1.60% as a result of asset competition and lending mix impacts.

NAB-May-2015-5Although NAB experienced above system growth in mortgages, margins on home lending were squeezed 5 basis points.

NAB-May-2015-3Broker volumes grew from 30.2% to 30.9% of loans originated. There was a net 209 increase in brokers across aggregators PLAN, Choice and FAST – currently 3,700 affiliated brokers, and a 31% increase in white label transaction. LVR’s over 80% were circa 20% of transactions, and around 15% of book, with a slight fall above 90%.

NAB-May-2015-6Looking at the loan portfolio mix, 28.8% of loans were for investment property (up from 28.2% in Sept 2014), and 35% of loans were interest only.  The average balance was $276,000. 90 Day past due was 0.48% and impaired loans 0.14%. The loss rate is 0.03%. Home loan impairment is lower through the broker channels than proprietary channels (opposite to what the regulator says, by the way, but consistent with our own modelling).

NAB-May-2015-4Steps are being taken to slow growth in investor mortgage lending to meet APRA’s 10% YoY threshold – currently 13%, and they say they are on track to comply with APRA’s best practice serviceability guidelines by June 2015 – floor rate comfortably above 7.0% and serviceability buffer comfortably above 2.0% (including buffer on existing debt). Interest only lending assessed on a principal and interest basis. This shows the regulator is having an impact and that lending criteria are tightening.

NZ Banking local currency cash earnings rose 4.5% to NZ$418 million with higher revenue given steady growth in lending volumes and improved margins (up 7 basis points, but with a 13 basis fall in lending margin, offset by 10 basis point rise in deposit margin, as well as funding and capital benefits) reflecting lower funding costs and benefits from both higher capital levels and higher earnings on capital. Costs rose 1.8% due mainly to increased personnel expenses, but were broadly flat compared to the September 2014 half year. Cost to income ratio rose 80 basis points to 40.2% B&DD charges were higher over the period with lower collective provision write-backs, but were flat over the six months to 31 March 2015 given the continued benign credit environment.

NAB Wealth cash earnings increased 28.2% to $223 million reflecting improved results from both the investments and insurance businesses, and lower operating expenses. Net income rose 8.0% due to improved insurance claims performance, stable lapses and growth in funds under management (FUM) as a result of strong investment markets, partly offset by lower investment margins related to a change in business mix. Cost to income ratio fell by 7.7% to 67.9%. There was no repeat of the insurance reserve increases seen in prior periods.

UK Banking local currency cash earnings grew 35.6% to £99 million driven by a further material reduction in B&DD charges as the business benefitted from improved economic conditions and loan portfolio shifts. Revenue was slightly weaker despite good growth in home lending volumes with competitive pressures resulting in NIM decline of 11 basis points from lending, points. Costs fell 1.2% (cost to income up 10 basis points to 70.3%) with increased restructuring and marketing spend more than offset by a one-off pension scheme gain in the March 2015 half year and conduct related charges that were incurred only in the March 2014 half year.