The Bears Have It!

As expected, U.S. equities tumbled on Monday, with the S&P 500 confirming it is in a bear market, thanks to expected aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that would push the economy into a recession. Markets have been under pressure this year as climbing prices, including a jump in oil prices due in part to the war in Ukraine, have put the Fed on track to take strong actions to tighten its monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes. The Fed is scheduled to make its next policy announcement on Wednesday and investors will be highly focused on any clues for how aggressive the central bank intends to be in raising rates.

The latest pickups in consumer prices and inflation expectations will probably spur Federal Reserve officials to consider the biggest interest rate increase since 1994 when they meet this week, after chairman Jerome Powell previously signalled a smaller move was the likely outcome.

In fact The benchmark S&P index has fallen for four straight days, with the index now down more than 20% from its most recent record closing high to confirm a bear market began on Jan. 3, if you use the standard definition.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Emergency Alert! The System is quickly breaking

On Friday, the exposing of the monstrous lie that inflation has peaked was a game changer. The reaction in the markets was a swift and fundamental economic and financial market relationships altered. US Inflation for May 2021 came in at 1% for the month vs expectations of 0.7% or 8.6% vs expectations of 8.3%.

CPI came in at 0.6% for the month vs expectations of 0.5% or 6.0% versus expectations of 5.9%. Over the weekend, there is a lot of more chatter that inflation is going to continue going higher – including on mainstream financial channels such as CNBC – over the coming months.

This has put immediate pressure on the US Federal Reserve who meets on Tuesday-Wednesday US time to be more aggressive in rising rates. This could include by raising rates by 75 or 100 basis points. It is important to note that quantitative tightening is expected to commence this week.

The exposing of the monstrous lie that inflation has peaked has now resulted in a breakdown of the financial system. All three risks inflation risk, credit risk and liquidity risk are now all coming into play. There will be more pressure on central banks to deal with inflation risk – if they do, this rises credit and liquidity risks – which can easily result in markets freezing and economic agents (households, corporations, banks and government) defaulting on debt.

A material credit and liquidity risk event can easily plunge the financial system into a new financial crisis. Any attempt to prevent this will lead to soaring stagflation – with a major crash in the share market and cryptocurrencies. The timetable for the pivot (which Adams is anticipating) has just dramatically quickened. All eyes on what the FOMC does on Wednesday, US time.

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

The latest from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest market dynamics, price movements, and gossip from China. Things are getting, well interesting. And we also discuss mold in property and stamp duty and other levies relating to new construction. A packed show.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Operation Anti-Spruik!

Today we discuss the latest property data and highlight some of the recent changes which suggests the “it always goes up brigade” may be wrong.

Thanks to Cookie Boy for helping with the research!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Pop Goes The Mortgage Rate!

We know that Central Banks are lifting rates, and seem willing to wear a fall in stock markets and bond prices. But what about the property market? Are they willing to see that correct too?

Well, so far as the US is concerned, Friday was an important day in the history of finance, because of the strong CPI figures which we discussed in our post yesterday. Both the headline and core CPI readings were higher than markets were expecting. Neither stocks nor bonds enjoyed the news.

It changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, higher and quicker, but it also broke the Mortgage-Backed Securities market, in the US, in bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS. Then came just a few posted prices beyond borrower demand, not wanting to buy except at penalty prices. Overnight the retail consequence has been a leap from roughly 5.50% to 6.00% for low-fee 30-fixed loans.

This signals a potential full-stop to housing finance, and so a big dent ahead in the housing market. Sure stocks were down 2-3% on the day, but this event is more mega. Stocks would be down way more if a potential freeze in housing growth is factored in.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Expect More Shock And Awe From Central Banks…

My latest market update as inflation grinds higher forcing more Central Bank rate hikes. The collateral damage will be significant, but they are now set on this “shock and awe” strategy, designed to unwind many years of too lose policy. How long they stay that course is an open question, but we must expect markets to slide further, and correct into this new higher rate environment.

[Content]

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:15 US Inflation Higher Than Expected
5:35 Interest Rates Hiked Higher
6:50 Sentiment Drops
8:22 US Market Summary
10:35 Oil
12:45 Gold
14:10 Europe Summary
16:55 Asia Pacific Summary
18:23 Australian Summary
20:27 Crypto and Bitcoin
22:19 Summary and Close

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Welcome To The Danger Zone: With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker @AvidCommentator on Twitter. We look at the latest economic and financial news, and consider the consequences.

Tarric’s slides are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-10th-june-2022

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Defusing The Household Debt Bomb

Some quick thoughts for households facing higher interest rates. There are some simple things you can do to help take the sting out of the rises – and taking more debt is not one personally I would play with.

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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

And Now The Pain Begins…

We look at the latest data as interest rate rises are passed through to borrowers, the changes in housing affordability, and the horrendous mess the RBA has made. Which begs the question where to from here?

[Content]

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:00 Marginal Buyers Under The Bus
5:37 Banks Pass The Rate Hikes On
14:20 Home Prices To Fall
16:43 Housing Affordability Dies
19:59 RBA Major Fail – What Now?
24:41 Conclusion

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.