The REINZ came out last week with their report for March 2022, which they say solidifies the changes in the market seen over the past months as pressure on property prices eases, inventory levels increase, demand softens and sales activity decelerates.
“There is a pervasive feeing of uncertainty, and people are hitting pause. While more stock makes this a favourable market for buyers who find themselves in a position to wait for the right property and negotiate — particularly buyers with their finances lined up — many are balancing fear of over paying with an outlook of further interest rate increases. Conversely, sellers are holding out for the right price in a changed market.
So, we look at the latest numbers and consider the consequences.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Let’s face it, the rampant rise in oil prices, is a big headache for politicians around the world, as the lift in prices is driving inflation. Just remember oil was already on the up BEFORE Ukraine kicked off.
And if you are going to make an unpopular policy change, when better than later Friday before a holiday weekend – the good ol’ putting the trash out.
Certainly the price of oil is a problem and it seems that any selloff in oil is only proving to be a buy-back opportunity amid one highly volatile energy market. Perhaps the most volatile ever.
Crude prices jumped almost 3% on the day and nearly 9% on the week as the market was hijacked once again by a supply scare on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports.
Gains in oil were limited earlier in the day as Chinese refiners appeared set to cut crude throughput this month by about 6%. The reduction would be a scale last seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago, industry sources and analysts said.
But news of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil prompted buyers to swoop in on more lots of crude futures and convinced some shorts to cover their positions as well ahead of the Good Friday holiday, which meant a longer weekend for U.S. markets.
“Heading into the long weekend, oil was vulnerable to some profit-taking, but a major pullback is still unwarranted given the supply situation and as economic slowdown concerns are still far from happening”.
Now the inflation problem is creating a series of back-flips including one relating to plans for oil and gas development on federal lands as now the Biden administration has said it has resumed plans for oil and gas development on federal lands. Granted the plan calls for the government to lease fewer acres for drilling than initially proposed, charge steeper royalties to oil and gas companies, and assess the climate impact of developing the acreage.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The New South Wales government has sold off $3bn worth of social housing during its decade in power, while failing to meet its own targets for new properties.
New figures released through parliament this week show that since it was first elected in 2011, the Coalition has sold off 4,205 social housing properties across the state.
The sales have added about $3.5bn to the government’s coffers over the same period.
But while the government said all of those funds were used to prove “more, and better” social housing stock, data for new social housing constructions reveal the government has fallen well behind its own targets for new dwellings.
In 2016, the Coalition pledged to build 23,000 new social housing dwellings in the next decade as part of its Future Directions housing strategy. It committed to funding new social housing construction through the $22bn Communities Plus program.
But eight years on, with more than 50,000 people on the social housing wait list in the state, the Communities Plus program has achieved only 10% of that goal.
We examine the role of the Bank of Mum and Dad, in the light of the latest data. As well as highlighting inter-generational issues, there are pressures on both parents and their kids. And if you do not have “wealthy” parents the chances of getting into the property market is diminished significantly.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In my latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist and Chart hoarder extraordinaire Tarric Brooker we parse the latest data and conclude that the next crisis has already started.
We question the quality of the current political dialogue, the role of Central Banks, the relationship between interest rates and inflation, and so much more…
We had to make do with 15 out of a potential 50+ slides, but the story is crystal clear. Be prepared!!
Tarric is @AvidCommentator on Twitter, and the slides can be viewed at https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-15th-april-2022
Here is his article on the warning lights: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/recession-warning-lights-are-flashing
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Dow stumbled on Thursday to close out the shortened U.S. trading week despite mostly better-than-expected quarterly results from major Wall Street banks. Tech stocks were a sea of red.
US markets will be closed on Good Friday. The ASX is closed on Friday and on Monday, as are most major European markets.
Thursday marked the monthly expiration for options contracts, an occurrence that has in the recent past helped amplify stock market gyrations as investors make adjustments to account for millions of expiring options contracts on stocks, ETFs and indexes.
Amidst the carnage, John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management, said investors are set for a reality check. “After almost two years of earnings-per-share (EPS) growth at a multiple of historical averages, this year’s opening quarter is projected to deliver single digit profit growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2020,” Lynch said.
“It’s a tough environment,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “Inflation numbers are going to stay very high and haven’t peaked yet, and we’re also going to start to see a deteriorating outlook for economic growth — not a recession, but significantly slower economic growth than certainly we’d anticipated as the year began.”
Wherever you look there is pain. For example. Mortgage rates in the U.S. surged, reaching 5% for the first time in more than a decade.
On the economic front, investors digested a weaker picture as data showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected, while the latest retail sales report flagged the impact of red-hot inflation on the consumer.
Bitcoin slumped 3.4 per cent to under $40,000 USD. North Korean-tied hackers were responsible for a $620-million cryptocurrency heist last month targeting players of the popular Axie Infinity game, US authorities said Thursday.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ABS released their Labour statistics data today, and in came in line ball with last month. Not as strong as economists were expecting. That said, the labour market is tight because external labour supply from temporary works and migration has stalled thanks to the pandemic. Essentially the supply has dropped by around 500,000. So this is hardly great economic management, and if migration is powered up again, the unemployment will rise. The latest projections are for a fall to 3. Something then a subsequent reversal as migration kicks in.
And remember the threshold is an hour worked to qualify as employed! The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.0 per cent in March 2022, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS, said: “With employment increasing by 18,000 people and unemployment falling by 12,000, the unemployment rate decreased slightly in March, though remained at 4.0 per cent in rounded terms. “4.0 per cent is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. Lower rates were seen in the series before November 1974, when the survey was quarterly.”
The unemployment rate continued to fall faster for women than for men.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The New Zealand Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee dropped a 50 basis point hike today by lifting the official cash rate to 1.5% from 1% Wednesday in Wellington, the first time it has delivered an increase of that magnitude since 2000, its biggest hike in 22 years.
SO the question is, does the 50 basis point hike represent a stitch in time, or a nail in the coffin of the property market?
The move wrong-footed 15 of 20 economists who expected a quarter-point adjustment. However, investors had assigned it a 70% probability.
“The Committee agreed that their policy ‘path of least regret’ is to increase the OCR by more now, rather than later, to head off rising inflation expectations,” the RBNZ said. “It is appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace.”
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The New Zealand Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee dropped a 50 basis point hike today by lifting the official cash rate to 1.5% from 1% Wednesday in Wellington, the first time it has delivered an increase of that magnitude since 2000, its biggest hike in 22 years.
So the question is, does the 50 basis point hike represent a stitch in time, or a nail in the coffin of the property market?
The move wrong-footed 15 of 20 economists who expected a quarter-point adjustment. However, investors had assigned it a 70% probability.
“The Committee agreed that their policy ‘path of least regret’ is to increase the OCR by more now, rather than later, to head off rising inflation expectations,” the RBNZ said. “It is appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace.”
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today we got the latest read on inflation in the US. The consumer price index, or CPI, climbed to 8.5% in the 12 months through March, above economists’ forecasts of 8.4%, Some are suggesting we are reaching a peak, but that is more hope than data driven in my view. In fact, it was the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, that dominated investor attention.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
