The latest inflation from the US and the latest on the Ukraine situation hit markets hard on Thursday. Global growth is under threat, and most market sectors are at risk.
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Author: Martin North
Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics
Squeezing Until The Pips Squeak!
Suddenly Central Banks and Governments have the perfect alibi (a claim or piece of evidence that one was elsewhere when an act, typically a criminal one, is alleged to have taken place) to account for years of poor policy, as costs of living, and inflation are rising. And as RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle leaves the bank – does he see the writing on the wall?
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Property Spruiking Turned Up To 11
The latest Building Approvals data from the ABS to the end of January revealed that the total number of dwellings approved fell 27.9 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in January, following a 9.8 per cent rise in December. The ABS said: “The fall in the total number of dwellings approved in January was driven by a large fall for private sector dwellings excluding houses, which fell 43.6 per cent.
Now, as I discussed with Edwin in our Monday property rant the number of listings, especially for apartments in on the rise, and are tracking much higher than last year. Yet despite this important observation the MSM are ranting on about supply shortages in the next few years. All designed to push for more land releases reduced approval fees and other measures – conveniently ahead of the upcoming election campaign, where property will be in the sights… again.
Spruik definition: to speak in public (used esp of a showman or salesman )
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The Interest Rate Gospel According To Phil
RBA Governor Phil Lowe has just delivered a speech entitled “Recent Economic Developments”, where he pushed back against predictions of imminent rate rises, but noted that “it is plausible the cash rate will be increased later this year”
RBA Lowe said “I recognise that there is a risk to waiting too long, especially in a world with overlapping supply shocks and a high headline inflation rate. But there is also a risk of moving too early.” Inflation – which has climbed to 3.5 per cent in Australia could climb towards 5 per cent by the middle of the year.
The take out is that RBA won’t lift the cash rate until it sees evidence that wage growth has risen above 3%, which is unlikely to be achieved until late this year. The bank will take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, which is at odds with market expectations.
Financial markets and many economists expect the RBA to start lifting interest rates, currently at 0.1 per cent, as early as June because of the building inflation pressures across the economy.
Economists at the NAB on Tuesday became the latest to pull forward their interest rate expectations, tipping three rate rises through the second half of the year.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Stagflation Coming Up Fast: 1970’s Here We Come!
Commodity prices are booming, from Oil, Wheat Nickel and Gas, as the fallout from Ukraine drives momentum which was already in play before the recent conflict started. To get a sense of how volatile commodity markets are right now, take a look at the chart below from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, based on Thomson Reuters’ core commodity index. Reid points out,this I starting to mirror the energy price shocks of the 1970s. The rolling 3-month move in this overall commodity index was at +35.9%, just below the highest ever which was the +41.9% seen in the three months to August 11th 1973 . At that was before the latest gyrations. Surging energy and commodity costs mean high inflation is inevitable.
The euro zone is particularly dependent on Russian energy and is therefore the most exposed to stagflation risks, though the United States isn’t immune. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a sustained $20 rise in oil prices would erode euro zone GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points this year. If Russian natural gas stopped flowing, an additional 2.2 percentage points would be lopped off, they say. That would put paid to most of the economic expansion expected by the European Commission, which in February forecast growth of 4% for 2022.
Have no doubt, Costs of living will spike higher than previously anticipated, and the overhang will be longer.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live 8pm Sydney Tonight – Crypto Now With Adam Stokes
Join us for a live discussion as I discuss the latest from Cryptoland with Adam Stokes. https://www.youtube.com/c/AdamStokes24/videos
You can ask a question live via the YouTube Chat.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Mechanics Of Housing Are Broken!
Today I want to look at a range of recent data to highlight just how broken our housing market is. I regularly talk about how high prices are relative to income and how households are under financial pressure, but there are other forces to consider too.
For example, we got updated data from the RBA yesterday on indicative mortgage lending rates, and despite the ongoing debate about if and when the RBA may lift the cash rates, the market is already reacting with higher mortgage rates. Note these are indicative rates, but the trend is clear.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Deposit Bail-In: Who’s Fact-checking The Fact-checkers? With Robbie Barwick
Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party and I discuss an AAP “Fact-check” on Deposit Bail-in.
They did miss point.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!
The latest from our property insider. More listings and pressure on apartments, and responsibilities of landlords and tenants, plus Edwin finds something ugly under the house….
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Elephant In The Room: How Dangerous Is Asbestos Exposure When Renovating?
Did you know that statistically, over 4,000 people die each year due to asbestos exposure? Not only that – one out of three properties in Australia contain asbestos, and most occupants aren’t even aware of it!
Knowing this, why is this issue yet to be addressed properly?
How serious is this problem, and how can you make sure that you’re safe from it?
Martin North of Asbestos Awareness Australia will walk us through everything we need to know about asbestos and how to deal with it, and the dangerous consequences its presence poses in property. We’ll also discuss myths about asbestos, the lack of action most people have, accreditation for asbestos removal, and more.
If you enjoy the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au!
See you in the episode!
Episode Highlights:
- A warning for property owners [01:38]
- The problem with asbestos [03:53]
- Are Australians aware of this asbestos issue? [08:50]
- The dangers of not knowing if there’s asbestos in your property [11:56]
- Is asbestos fine on your property as long as it’s not disturbed? [16:59]
- The lack of action towards asbestos [20:34]
- More women are being diagnosed with mesothelioma due to DIYs [25:39]
- Driving political change that addresses the issue [28:23]
- The urgency when dealing with asbestos [34:54]
- Debunking the myths about asbestos [37:25]
- Checking a service provider’s accreditation for asbestos removal [39:36]
- How the UK deals with the dangers of asbestos [42:10]
- Don’t just leave it to the government [45:00]
- Remember to wear a mask and other protective equipment [49:17]
Links from the Show: