Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

The ProBuild Canary!

One of Australia’s largest construction companies is reportedly in difficulty and many projects have stalled while contractors might lose thousands. Was this just bad management of one company or a signal of wider strife across the industry, as supply chain disruptions, costs and demand all impact the sector?

Those who watch our regular shows might not be that surprised!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Economic Shock Ahead: With Leith van Onselen

This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the economy and what may lay ahead with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has a strong background in economic policy and financial sector regulation. Leith holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from Melbourne University and a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia (now FINSIA). Leith can also be found on twitter: twitter.com/leithvo

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Pop Goes The Prices?

Westpac says Australia’s housing market boom is showing clearer signs of slowing with sentiment pointing to a decline in turnover through the first half of 2022. More importantly, the medium term outlook has shifted materially with an interest rate tightening cycle now expected to see a broad-based correction phase begin later this year, continuing throughout 2023 and into 2024.

According to Westpac’s February 2022 Housing Pulse report, the housing market boom is showing clear signs of slowing with sentiment pointing to a decline in turnover through the first half of 2022.

The report detailed how inflation and labour market challenges are shaping the view on interest rates, which will impact the property markets and further divergence among states.

As lenders already begin to raise rates, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate rise, and house prices soar, a housing “correction” is forecast for 2023 and 2024.

Nationally, prices lifted 2.5 per cent since November 2021, which was a fall from the peak of 7.1 per cent in May 2021, but an annual gain of 21.1 per cent.

The “extraordinary” surge in prices has seen affordability deteriorate with new projections now forecasting house prices will “flatten” by May this year, ahead of a move into outright correction in the December quarter.
Overall, that would see a net gain of just 2 per cent over 2022.
House prices are then forecast to fall 7 per cent in 2023 and by a further 5 per cent in 2024, before stabilising towards the end of that year.

Nationally, the peak to trough fall of 14% is around the average of corrections seen historically.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Final Reminder: DFA Live Q&A Economic Shock Ahead: With Leith van Onselen – 8pm Sydney Tonight.

Join us for a live discussion as I discuss the current state of the economy and what may lay ahead with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has a strong background in economic policy and financial sector regulation. Leith holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from Melbourne University and a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia (now FINSIA).. Leith can also be found on twitter: twitter.com/leithvo

You can ask a question live.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The iView Thin Edge Of The Privacy Wedge?

Michael Cowling Associate Professor – Information & Communication Technology (ICT), CQUniversity Australia penned an important article in The Conversation today. And raises some important questions for us to consider, as the ABC turns on account login and personalisaton services.

https://theconversation.com/mandatory-logins-for-abc-iview-could-open-an-intimate-window-onto-your-life-177540

The ABC says that for iview you can Continue Watching where you left off across all devices logged in to your ABC Account, Create a Watchlist to keep track of your favourite shows, Access your Viewing History, Create a profile for members of your household and Receive personalised recommendations based on what you watch.

For the Listen app it says you can Continue listening where you left off across all devices logged in to your ABC Account, Create a Playlist to listen to programs uninterrupted, Use Favourites to keep track of shows and podcasts, Access your Listening History, Choose Your News with a broader offering of local and topical news content andUse the Call-In and Text-In feature to conveniently engage with a range of ABC radio programs
He wrote: Last week, the ABC announced it will begin to track the viewing habits of all users of its iview streaming platform from March 15. This will be done by making users create an account and log in to watch shows and “benefit from the next stage of personalised services” such as “program recommendations [and] watchlists”.

The change was initially planned for the middle of last year, but was delayed after heavy criticism from privacy experts and others over the proposed arrangements for sharing and recording data. One point of contention was the ABC’s plans to share viewer data with Facebook and Google.

Significant amounts of information could be inferred from our viewing habits: everything from our political leanings to our attention span. What that can then be used for is anyone’s guess.

That’s not to say you shouldn’t create an account, but rather that you need to go in with your eyes wide open. Think about what iview means to you, what data might be shared, and how it might be used. And then decide if you really love Bluey all that much after all.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Social Housing’s Impossible Mission…

Victoria set to bring in social housing ‘contribution’ The state will introduce a new Social and Affordable Housing Contribution on certain developments from July 2024, it has been announced.

The Andrews government has announced that, from July 2024, all newly built developments with three dwellings or more, or of three or more residential lot subdivisions, will need to contribute 1.75 per cent of the market value of the completed project to the Social Housing Growth Fund.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Hidden Hand Of Digital Control

I have been discussing the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies over the past few years, and we know that in Australia the Treasury is now actively exploring the implementation of a digital Aussie Dollar for consumer use. This mirrors efforts underway in other countries, including both the UK and USA.

Canada Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Chrystia Freeland announced the government is broadening the scope of the country’s anti-money laundering monitoring and terrorist financing laws to cover crowdfunding platforms and the payment service providers they use. “These changes cover all forms of transactions, including digital assets such as crypto currencies,” she announced during a recent press conference. To underscore the point, the Canadian government made it clear on Monday that it would target cryptocurrency alongside traditional transactions.

But consider how much easier it would be to control the access to money if it was sitting in a Central Bank Digital Currency Account. Potentially total transparency, and control.

The Canadian experience underscores for me the importance of safeguarding our financial system, and we should be aware of the grave risk which exists from those in Government and the Security Services which wants more direct control.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Who Turned Up The Gravity?

This week we saw more falls on markets as the volatility continued and uncertainty raged. So in this weeks market review we are going to consider some of the factors which are amplifying the gravity effects. These forces are substantial, to say the least.

While US stocks came off session lows, bonds climbed at the end of a week marked by a standoff between the West and Russia as well as worries about the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. As a result, volatility continues with the US fear index sitting at 28.12. The Benchmark U.S. stock indexes hit a second week of losses, undermined by the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine, as well as the prospect of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. And some $2.2 trillion of U.S. stock options expired on Friday. Oh, and U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.68%, at around 34,072. The S&P 500 index fell 0.78%, to trade around 4,347, with information technology segment down -0.95% and energy the worst performers among the index’s 11 sectors.

The NASDAQ Composite Index declined 1.23%, to about 13,536. A so-called death cross crystallized in the index, a bearish chart pattern that has at times presaged further weakness.

For the week, the Dow is down around 2%, while the S&P 500 was heading for a 1.7% decline and NASDAQ was on track for a decline of almost 1.9%.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Planning? Hope Is Not A Strategy!

I caught up with Financial Planner Teagan Curtin from PRP Advisers to discuss the art and science of financial planning. We discussed the benefits of developing a financial plan, some of the important questions to consider, and how the current market context might influence a plan.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/