Martin North – Page 144 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Special Tonight! Russia? WTF…. With Robbie Barwick

Join us for a special live discussion tonight (as requested by our audience!) as I explore the current emerging Russian situation with Robbie Barwick from The Citizens Party. Are we being told the whole story? You can ask a question live. 8PM Sydney time.

Markets Vs Gravity: Gravity Wins!

Once again, US stocks ended lower on Tuesday after another volatile session as investors await the outcome of a meeting of Federal Reserve officials.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.19% near 34,297 after dropping more than 800 points at its session low. That followed the 1,000 point swing on Monday. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% to finish near 4,356,, while the NASDAQ declined 2.3% to close near 13,539.

Wealthy investor Mike Novogratz says the days of making easy money on Wall Street are coming to a swift end and he sees more pain in store for stock-market investors in coming months. “I look at the stock market and it is just starting to correct and that worries me more,” he said – adding when referring to crypto. “I’m still a true believer but it’s time for sobriety”. He told attendees of the iConnections conference in Florida on Tuesday that the “average rich guy is going to be less rich by the end of 2022 than he was at the end of 2021.”

Of course the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting Tuesday. Investors will be watching to see “if Fed chairman Jerome Powell continues to address the risk of inflation as heightened and any sort of communication about ending the taper early,” John Luke Tyner, Portfolio Manager at Aptus Capital Advisors said. If the Fed hints “at any plan of how they’ll use the balance sheet to reduce accommodation that is going to be huge.”

Inconveniently, The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for this year as rising Covid-19 cases, supply chain disruptions and higher inflation hamper economic recovery. In its delayed World Economic Outlook report, published yesterday, the IMF said it expects global gross domestic product to weaken from 5.9% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 — with this year’s figure being half a percentage point lower than previously estimated.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

CPI Numberwang Jumps Higher But Still Does Not Tell The Truth!

The latest CPI for Australia to December was much stronger than expected and puts more pressure on the RBA to react sooner. But as we examine the data we also update our shadow estimate of the TRUE rate of inflation which is much higher, and helps to explain the high levels of financial stress in the system.

Markets Don’t Fall In Straight Lines!

As I suggested in recent posts, the markets are in a volatile frame of mind, and this won’t change quickly, as the fundamentals are shifting under us. I still hold the view that the stock market is vulnerable to a big selloff once liquidity is withdrawn and interest rates rise. Yet, despite some obvious wobbles, central banks have ensured money has stayed plentiful for the last decade, they cut interest rates rates have fallen, and as a result, anyone who did much to protect themselves against the risk of a decline would have done badly by it.

And on the other side, the bulls still argue that the environment remains set fair for stocks, and that even a fall in bonds would ram home the fact that there is no alternative to equities. And of course they’ve been right for the best part of a decade. And they will be, until they are not.

If you had looked at the US markets an hour or two before close, you would say the markets were continuing their linear falls. Yet, these kinds of sudden widespread losses day after day, week after week, are screaming for a bounce. And we got one.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Investing In Uncertain Times…

Sam Kerr from Nucleus Wealth and I consider the differences between investing and speculating – a very appropriate conversation given the current market sentiment. Have an investment plan and stick to it!.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Credit Booms: But What Does It Really Tell Us?

My first chat of 2022 with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar. We discuss the latest credit stats, the property market, interest rates and how to save some money. And Steve’s New Year resolution is a doozy…

Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.

https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Fear Grips The Market – So Where To Hide?

It’s been another doozy of a week on Wall Street. US stocks fell, capping the worst week since the outbreak of the pandemic roiled markets, with tech shares bearing the brunt of the sell-off amid shaky company earnings and prospects for higher US interest rates.

“This is the longest short week, I think, in history, right?” Jay Pelosky, founder and president of TPW Investment Management, said. “It’s only been a four-day week and it feels like it’s been two weeks rolled into one.”All the U.S. stock indexes closed lower Friday, capping another punishing week for growth and technology stocks as investors await a Federal Reserve update next week on how aggressively interest rates may rise and financial conditions tighten to tame inflation.

The NASDAQ Composite Index led the three stock benchmarks lower Friday, ending down 2.7%, but off 7.6% for the week, which was its worst weekly decline since March 2020, The NASDAQ also entered correction territory mid-week, commonly measured as at least a 10% decline from its recent record close, and recorded its worst start to a year through Friday since the 2008 global financial crisis. It ended at 13,769.

Rising 10-year Treasury yields, have also pressured speculative stocks and total returns of riskier assets. It rose 1.35% to 1.770, while the 2 year was up 2.3% to 1.0158.

The S&P 500 index tumbled 1.89% Friday and 5.7% for the week, and closed below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since 2020. It ended at 4397. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% for the session and 4.6% for the week, pulled lower in part by jitters about pinched margins as major banks kicked off fourth-quarter earnings. It ended at 34,265.

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/