Martin North – Page 36 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Bitcoin Gets The SEC’s Spot Tick – But Caveat Emptor!

The Securities and Exchange Commission has for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector that will broaden access to the largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond.

Now much is resting on the concept that the futures market has already brought crypto assets sufficiently into the financial mainstream.

The SEC was frankly bounced into this decision in response to the loss of some critical legal cases, and puts Bitcoin ever closer to existing financial services players. This does not necessarily mitigate risk.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler said “While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot Bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse Bitcoin,”. “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”

Crypto zealots have for years argued that a so-called spot fund that invests directly in Bitcoin would be beneficial to investors and would help bring the industry closer to the more highly regulated world of traditional finance. It also suggests a sort of milestone of maturity for the relatively nascent industry, where skirmishes with regulators came to a climax after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire highlighted risks lurking in the industry.

But of course, by definition, the mainstream approval this represents cuts right across the original ideology of Bitcoin already compromised by the significant use of derivatives, and becoming ever more controlled by large financial institutions and regulators.

Even after Gensler went to such lengths to say that the SEC wasn’t giving any seal of approval to Bitcoin, the odds remain that this will expose many more people to crypto’s risks and opportunities. So Caveat Emptor! Let The Buyer Beware!

January 2024 Economic Update

This is my edit of our monthly economic update recorded with Nuggets News, which includes some observations about where things may go in 2024.

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The Volatility Dragon Has Not Been Slayed: Brace For More Firey Swings!

Investors’ hopes were running high into the start of 2024, but the S&P 500 index started the year by stripping 2.2 per cent off its December 2023 peak while the all-important 10-year US Treasury yield has jumped back up from a recent low of 3.78 per cent to around 4 per cent. Investors have been cautious in the opening sessions of 2024, as they awaited further clarity on when interest rate cuts will begin, and how quickly they will happen.

Hopes for a swift pace of easing had triggered a blistering rally in the final weeks of 2023, which took the S&P 500 to within 1% of its all-time high, so any undermining of that hypothesis has been a cue for profit-taking.

So, no surprise then we could be in for a rocky stretch in the markets.

Friday’s session saw markets gyrate throughout the day, as investors absorbed the latest macroeconomic data which offered contrasting views on when interest rate cuts may begin.

Looking further ahead, investors will parse the message from the Fed at the end of its Jan. 30-31 policy meeting. Markets expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged this month, and bets on a cut at the March meeting have been pared back.

The 10-year German Bond is a important benchmark, and was last at 2.1740, up 3.28% perhaps sending a message globally about the direction of interest rates.

The Australian share market rounded out its worst start to the year in more than a decade on Friday, as the broad rally staged in the final months of 2023 lost steam.

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Pin The Tale (Yes, I Do Mean Tale), On The Home Price Donkey…

CoreLogic reported that their national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 8.1% in 2023, a significant turnaround from the 4.9% drop seen in 2022, but well below the 24.5% surge recorded in 2021. December’s 0.4% increase saw 2023 finish with a relatively soft monthly rise in home values.

Despite the annual 8.1% increase, the year was punctuated by diversity , with the annual change in housing values ranging from a 15.2% surge in Perth to a 1.6% fall across regional Victoria.

So now of course, the question is what will happen in 2024. Last week I made two shows for the channel, one on the top 5 elements supporting home price growth in 2024 and the other on the top five elements which could drive prices lower.

If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong. On the other hand, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.

To make an assessment of what will play out, you then have to do is to weigh the relative influence of each of these forces, against an unstable local and global economic environment.

This is something we model dynamically, in our Core Market Model, which incorporates all these elements and delivers scenarios at a post code level for houses and units.

In comparison, the AFR published estimates from a panel of 10 property market experts and economists. Overall, they take a more sober view on growth prospects for the housing market, with most tipping gains of somewhere between 1 and 5 per cent. The most optimistic prediction is for house price gains of up to 8 per cent, while the most bearish forecast is for prices to fall nationally by as much 5 per cent.

Last year’s “very unusual supply and demand dynamics” are expected to normalise in 2024, according to Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters, who is tipping 4.8 per cent growth nationally. Sydney house prices could rise by 3.8 per cent, with Melbourne up 3.2 per cent and Brisbane 5.9 per cent.

“Importantly, we think borrowing capacity will re-emerge as a key constraint on demand,” she told AFR Weekend in a quarterly property survey.

Trying to pin the tail on the property price donkey, is fraught with difficulty, because of the uncertainty in the system – one reason why I run scenarios, and why the specific tale you prefer will influence your expectation of price movements.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Peak LNG Stupidity!

Bloomberg reported yesterday that the US has become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time, with 2023 shipments overtaking leading suppliers Australia and Qatar.

The US exported 91.2 million metric tons of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data through Dec. 31 compiled by Bloomberg. The expanded output was due to last year’s restart of Freeport LNG in Texas, which had been shuttered for months following a June 2022 fire and explosion. Qatar, the top LNG supplier in 2022, saw its volumes shrink for the first time since at least 2016, with a 1.9% decline dropping the nation into third spot for shipments of the super-chilled fuel. Australia ranked second, with exports that were little changed from 2022.

Unlike East Coast Australia, the US has a domestic gas reservation scheme in place, which has mostly succeeded in keeping domestic gas prices low.

And the mooted A$80 Billion Deal between Woodside Energy and Santos could also put more upward pressure on Australian domestic gas prices.

“Both Santos and Woodside are material domestic gas producers, which may create market concentration concerns,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note.

It makes no sense to give any member of the gas export cartel – Origin, Woodside, Santos, EXXON or Shell – greater control of gas import volumes. Remember East Coast Electricity prices are driven by the marginal cost of LNG.

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