A final 2023 chat with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. We look at the RBA’s latest outing on cash usage, the Senate review of the RBA’s independence bill, and the formation of a National Investment entity.
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
More from our Property Insider, as Edwin and I discuss the latest from the markets. The numbers are falling in the approach to the end of the year, significantly. We also look at a prime example of the need to lookout below!
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If you have savings with a bank in Australia, it is highly likely you are being ripped off. After all, Australian Consumers depend on retail deposit products to conduct their everyday banking, to safely store over $1.4 trillion of their savings and, importantly, to earn a decent return on these funds.
However, as I have been highlighting in recent shows, changes in the cash rate (often referred to as the ‘official interest rate’) via the RBA, and which is the rate paid on lending between banks in the overnight cash market only indirectly affect the cost of funding from retail deposits and the interest rates paid on retail deposit products.
Banks are quick to lift mortgage rates on mortgages, but have been significantly less market driven in terms of deposit rates, with many savers loosing out. Yet relatively few consumers switch deposit products, despite there often being a range of alternative products offering better interest rates and conditions. This loyalty tax means consumers earn significantly less than they should, over all on deposits, which boosts bank profits significantly.
So now the ACCC just completed a report on Retail Deposit Account. They gathered information, and documents on retail deposit products supplied by 14 of the largest banks in Australia. These banks collectively hold more than 90% of household deposits in Australia. This included seeking information directly from these banks as to their retail deposit products and from APRA and RBA, as well as reviewing the information available to the public on the banks’ websites.
The ACCC findings highlights that despite the importance of transaction accounts, savings accounts and term deposits, the ongoing challenges consumers face in searching for, comparing, and switching between products means that consumer engagement with the market for retail deposit products is relatively low. This low level of engagement means many consumers miss out on earning more from their savings.
Widespread strategic and selective pricing also adds difficulty for consumers when seeking to locate key product information and compare market offerings. This lack of transparency may also damage consumer confidence in the market.
Given the range of factors that banks take into account and the strategic pricing approaches they employ when setting their retail deposit rates, the interest rates received by consumers do not automatically follow movements in the cash rate target.
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This past week was a doozy in the markets as the Fed started to flip the switch on monetary policy, which took the markets by surprise. Yields plunged. Stock and bond prices soared. And this time, it’s more than the Magnificent Seven stocks leading the charge.
The Russell 2000 ETF has more than doubled the return of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 over the last month. And the S&P Regional Banking ETF, which has taken the brunt of the bears’ ire this year and is still down YTD, has surged ~36% since the beginning of November.
The markets feverish speculation about future interest rate cuts has further loosened global financial conditions, storing up risks for euphoric stock and bond markets if central banks view the easy funding environment as a reason to hold borrowing costs high.
Both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies said long/short hedge funds, which take positions betting stocks will rise and fall, got hit hard after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday.
The investment bank’s global markets team said systematic long/short funds, based on a computer-driven strategy, were down 2.8% on Thursday, the worst single day since at least January 2016.
And in fact on Friday US equities gave back some of their weekly gains while the dollar advanced after New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC it was premature” to be thinking about a March rate cut”.
Williams’ Atlanta counterpart, Raphael Bostic told Reuters he was only pencilling in two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts in the latter half of 2024. Swaps traders were eying as many as six rate cuts for next year.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
While markets seem to be thinking about coordinated rate cuts next year, the truth is, economies are in very different positions, with New Zealand already looking stagflationary, and the ECB and the Bank of England not sharing the rate cut love exhibited by the FED. Norge Bank lifted this past week, and the RBA is still not close to a cut.
So we think the inflation poker game is fragmenting. The results will still be higher rates for many, for longer than the markets are signalling.
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The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.9 per cent in November (seasonally adjusted), up from a revised 3.8 per cent in October, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS said: “With employment increasing by 61,000 people, and the number of unemployed people rising by 19,000, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 per cent in November.
“The combination of strong growth in both employment and unemployment in November saw the employment-to-population ratio return to a record high of 64.6 per cent and the participation rate reach a new high of 67.2 per cent.
“We have continued to see employment growth keeping pace with high population growth through 2023. The employment-to-population ratio has been high for a long time now, between 64.4 per cent and 64.6 per cent since February 2023, and between 64.3 per cent and 64.6 per cent for the past 18 months.
“Similarly, participation continues to be high. In addition to strong employment growth over the past year, the number of unemployed people has also increased by around 81,000 people, and the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points. However, both unemployment measures remain well below their pre-pandemic levels.”
At this point just note that from September 2023, the ABS sample frame has been updated with information from the 2021 Census, with sample selection from the new sample being phased in over eight months from September 2023 to April 2024.
And specifically, The ABS has revised the original Labour Force series from July 2016 to reflect the latest estimated resident population (ERP) based on the 2021 Census (final rebased ERP). So the usual resident civilian population in October 2023 was revised up by around 0.2% (around 37,200 people).
To add to the data tweaks, the incoming November sample had a higher unemployment rate and higher participation, which also helps to explain some of the slightly weird movements this month.
This helps to explain why while employment growth continued into November 2023, rising by 0.4 per cent, monthly hours worked rose by less than 0.1 per cent.
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Is a great monetary pivot near as central bankers engineer a once-unthinkable soft landing in the world’s largest economy. It seems, finally, and for now, Wall Street traders and the Federal Reserve are on the SAME PAGE.
Wednesday was quite a day, which took an unexpected turn when the FOMC, the quarterly “dot plot” or survey of economic projections, and then Powell’s 45-minute press conference, all came as close to promising early rate cuts as a central bank could ever do. It smelt like a pivot was on the cards.
Sure, the FOMC wanted to leave a possible rate hike “on the table,” and said it intends to carry on shrinking its balance sheet by selling off bonds, which all else equal will tend to tighten monetary policy. But the direction of Powell’s comments was unmistakable. The Fed is now only too happy for the market to price in imminent rate cuts.
This was not what I had expected, given the recent data. Remember all the focus the Fed has directed to so-called “supercore” inflation (services excluding shelter), which was higher in November than in October on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis?
But, no, in a rather remarkable press conference, the signals were sprinkled through the 45 minutes, as he said policy was now “well into restrictive territory” (not merely “restrictive” as he said in November, when conditions were tighter than now).
The markets reacted by pushing most asset prices higher, taking bound yields lower. The two-year yield, most sensitive to near-term rate cuts, its minute-by-minute moves show that it was taken by surprise. After a dive when the dot plot was published, it managed to fall significantly further as Powell spoke.
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The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) update released on Wednesday estimates the Australian economy is expected to expand by a low 1.75% in 2023–24 before regaining momentum in 2024-25, when improved real incomes are expected to support a recovery in household consumption. It also notes inflation – although moderating – is still too high.
The outlook attributes that mainly to global oil prices and Treasury has not changed its forecast timetable for inflation’s return to the 2-3% target band, with 2.5% hit in mid 2025, so the Government is more optimistic than the RBA when it comes to expected progress on inflation. The RBA expects inflation to be at 3.0% by mid-2025.
Treasury’s analysis of the structural budget position suggests that the budget in 2023-24 is neutral with respect to inflation – it is neither adding nor reducing inflationary pressures.
Treasury continues to expect the economy will slow over the next few years to grow below trend with the unemployment rate drifting higher to 4.5% in 2025-26.
The migration intake has been a hot topic recently. As expected, the MYEFO forecasts upgrade the outlook for net overseas migration (NOM) in 2023-24 by 60k to 375k. We suspect that this will likely undershoot the eventual outcome. In 2024-25, forecasts for NOM have been marked down slightly to 250k, likely reflecting the expected impact of the Government’s recently announced migration strategy.
Gross debt is expected to peak at 35.4% of GDP in 2027-28, this is 0.2 percentage points lower than projected in the May Budget. While debt is expected to be lower, the expected cost of capital has also increased since the May Budget, reflecting the rise in government bond yields. Overall, these counteracting forces net out to a slight increase in interest payments as a share of GDP over the medium term.
Sadly, in a blow for budget transparency, there is still a line for decisions taken but not yet announced. We don’t know what decisions these are, but they are significant – the estimates start at $270 million in 2023-24 and rise to $1.8 billion in 2026-27. It is impossible to tell what this spending is for. If the government were to reverse those decisions between now and the next budget update, we will never know.
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You will recall that Australia’s October monthly CPI indicator from the Australian Bureau of Statistics came in below market expectations at 4.9%/yr (versus the consensus of 5.2%/yr). There were a number of factors which messed with the data, as I discussed in a previous show.
According to CBA, other surveys also suggest that trimmed mean CPI in Q4 23 is unlikely to be stronger than the RBA’s ~1.0%/qtr forecast.
But these monthly numbers are flaky, because the critical services price movements are not captured until the quarterly series which is due out in January.
As I discussed in my earlier show, the problem is the last mile problem – in that the last part of getting inflation down towards the target is the hardest, especially when then RBA now has a 2.5% central target, and as in the US data out yesterday, its services inflation which is driving the numbers as goods inflation eases back.
On this theme, Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday released its new monthly inflation gauge, which captures around 45% of the CPI basket.
The conclusion of all this, is the partial monthly numbers may well deceive, and should be taken with a truck load of salt. When the quarterly numbers land later then check out the services components. Goods price inflation may be coming under control, but services is not. And within that, watch the rental and housing sector in particular.
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