Martin North – Page 6 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA says they will look through in the policy deliberations.

The RBA, is facing increasing pressures at home to lower borrowing costs, with politicians sparring over the outlook on interest rates ahead of an election due by May 2025. But Bullock said the RBA won’t be dragged into politics as it is splitting with a global easing cycle as it waits for inflation to abate.

So today I want to look at the RBA statement, then delve into the detail from the inflation numbers and finally try to figure out what this all means.

The RBA last month warned the rapid rise in government outlays was one of the factors prolonging high inflation. The bank’s statement was a political headache for Dr Chalmers, and Ms Bullock subsequently softened the central bank’s stance, saying government spending was not the “main game” for inflation.

At the federal level, government spending on childcare, aged care and disability care surged by more than 20 per cent over the past year, while spending on public servant wages jumped 14.5 per cent. Spending on the NDIS has been a major driver of the explosion in government spending. The scheme, which is forecast to cost $49 billion this financial year, is growing at about 20 per cent per year and is on track to cost more than the age pension within a decade.

Since the 2019 calendar year, the underlying cost base in the construction sector has grown by a whopping 36 per cent, compared to around 21 per cent in the non-mining market sector as a whole.

As the public sector expands, productivity growth would temporarily slow as more resources poured into sectors such as healthcare and education, where productivity is about one-third lower than the private sector.

Seven Days To Stop 1984!

In this special show I am joined by Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, and Economist John Adams, from In The Interests Of The People to underscore the need for people to make their views known to Government on the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred the provisions of the Communications Legislation Amendment (Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 (the bill) to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by 25 November 2024.

You have JUST SEVEN Days! as submissions close on the 30 September 2024.

This bill would severely curtain unfettered free speech by putting onerous responsibilities on social media platforms across issues as wide as electoral, health, social and economic. In practice the Government will define “truth” and will essential silence alternative voices.

You have a limited opportunity to make your views know before 1984 type conditions arrive!

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/MisandDisinfobill

Contact details:

Committee Secretary
Senate Standing Committees on Environment and Communications
PO Box 6100
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Phone: +61 2 6277 3526
ec.sen@aph.gov.au

https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/say-no-albaneses-orwellian-disapproved-information-censorship-bill

About this inquiry: The bill proposes to amend the Broadcasting Services Act 1992 and would make consequential amendments to other Acts to establish a new framework to safeguard against serious harms caused by misinformation or disinformation.

The bill would provide the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) with new regulatory powers to require digital communications platform providers to take steps to manage the risk that misinformation and disinformation on digital communications platforms poses in Australia. These would include obligations on providers to assess and report on risks relating to misinformation and disinformation, to publish their policy in relation to managing misinformation and disinformation, and develop and publish a media literacy plan.

The bill would also provide ACMA with new information gathering, record keeping, code registration and standard making powers to oversee digital communications platform providers.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Lies, Statistics And The “Facts” About Foreign Students And Rents…

If you want a case study of how data is used to mislead, rather than help define a problem, then look no further than the recent stoush surrounding foreign students and their impact on the housing crisis.

We have as you know seen a massive upswing in migration to Australia, after the drought through the COVID years. The current high levels continue as the latest stats show with the current Government target set to be blown past by the end of the year.

A significant element in the numbers relate to overseas students arriving in Australia ostensively to study, but often as a proxy to gain longer term residency.

Overseas students typically spend several years studying in Australia. This means that many among the record wave of students that arrived last year will be here for some years to come.

A total of 767,120 people arrived in Australia on temporary student visas over the 12 months ending June 2024. These were spread across higher education, vocational education and training (VET), schools, and English language courses.

Some argue that from a purely economic perspective, a high number of international students is good for Australia’s economy and that Education is Australia’s second largest export, bringing in around $36.4 billion over the 2023 financial year.

Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy said international enrolments should not be blamed for housing woes. “Using students as cannon fodder in the migration battle risks the viability of our universities and as national accounts show, the growth of our economy,” he said.“International students contributed more than anything to Australia’s GDP growth last year.

While it was certainly one of the factors that prevented Australia from entering into a technical recession last year, the truth is this is a statistical trick, as we have highlighted before, because many overseas students also work in Australia, and often send funds back overseas. See my recent discussions with Cameron Murray and Tarric Brooker, who have pealed back the truth – though the same lie about the economic contribution of foreign students is trotted out regularly by academics trying to defend their mismanaged of the economics of education, and to resist the proposed cap on students ahead.

The move has sent the education sector spinning, at a time when Government funding for universities is taking a back seat, and when nabbing vast numbers of overseas students have been required to make university budgets work. And of course, a whole new industry designed to pull overseas students into the country, with dubious educational value is in question.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!

This is our weekly market update, designed to help me digest what is happening, starting in the US, probably the most consequential market in the world, then we move to Europe, Asia and end in Australia and also cover commodities and crypto on the way.

On Friday shares on Wall Street were mixed in a narrow range as investors continued to assess the outlook for US interest rates. Why 50 basis points, not 25, and was this a minor course correction, aimed at bringing a soft economic landing, or a sign the FED had left things too long and was trying to head off a lurking recession risk? And was there a hint of political here ahead of the US election? It’s really not clear. And as for that mythical R star – the level at which rate neither detract from, or add to growth, remains like the quest for the holy grail.

One top Federal Reserve policymaker signalled a willingness to cut rates at a fast pace. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that “inflation is running softer than I thought”. He’s now estimating that the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — has risen over the last three months at an annualised rate of less than 1.8 per cent, which is below the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.

But separately, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said she was concerned this week’s 50-basis-point rate cut was “premature”, countering expectations of another similar move anytime soon. “I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 per cent target.” Bowman dissented at this week’s meeting, the sole policymaker to do so, voting for a quarter of a percentage point reduction instead.

We know the FED will continue to be data dependent and next week’s US data highlight will arrive on Friday with August’s PCE report.

Gold’s reaction to the most-dovish Fed decision in years proved lackluster. Futures were last at 2647.20, up 1.39% across the week. Plenty of traders thought gold would surge after an outsized rate cut birthing a new cutting cycle. And with top Fed officials projecting many more cuts, it is going to be big. Gold did rally initially on that revelation, but quickly reversed into a larger intraday loss. Fed rate cuts are bullish for gold, but speculators’ gold-futures positioning is overextended.

Australian shares scaled another record high on Friday, tracking a global wave of optimism that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a much-hoped-for soft landing for the world’s largest economy. The S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 per cent to 8209.5, the highest closing level in its history. It climbed to an intraday peak of 8246.2 – setting a record for the sixth straight session. On the week, it gained 1.3 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020.

But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and has signalled that significant further cuts would be made over the next 18 month. Business confidence took a leg up, bouncing to a net 51% positive from just 6% in response, banking on the end of the recession which has gripped the country.

Net Migration is also falling away rapidly, according to statistics New Zealand, and we are seeing more property coming on market with inventories up by 30% compared with last year, while sales volumes are down compared with last year and more property being subsequently withdrawn from market failing to find a buyer at their desired asking price.

So net net, it seems likely that as we go into spring and summer in New Zealand, demand might be higher thanks to lower rates but offset by lower migration, while supply is higher but transaction volumes are lower. Which begs the question, are we seeing the property market turning?

Well, the latest report, or should that be marketing document from the REINZ for August shows “signs of increased confidence, optimism and activity compared to the previous year. While the overall sales volume slightly declined, several regions reported notable increases in activity, and year-on-year listing numbers continue to rise”.

All up, its probably too soon to talk about an uptick in property values, but there may well be more property coming on to the market, and an uptick in sales to boot. Further rate cuts will help, and of course the loser regulations on investment property may also assist, but migration driven demand is falling.

Its probably way too early to declare victory, for now. REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market. I would remain more cautious. Auckland still seems to be more exposed while some South Island markets though smaller are more positive. And there is considerable uncertainty ahead.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Rate Cut Dance Begins; But You’re Not Invited!

To the surprise of no one the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday as signalled in my earlier post, and they went for the more aggressive half percentage point. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades. It was the Fed’s first rate cut in more than four years. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of a smaller, quarter-point cut — the first dissent by a governor since 2005 and the first dissent from any member of the FOMC since 2022.

The impact of the first cut from the FED echoed through global markets. But remember that the FED shift lower to 4.75% to 5% probably won’t impact the Bank of England’s latest rate decision, which will most likely be a hold, following last month’s cuts.

So far as Australia is concerned, the new FED rates are still significantly higher than the RBA’s weak 4.35%, and inflation in Australia is running much hotter as a result. The data flows in Australia also suggests no reason for the RBA to cut anytime soon, as for example the the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2 per cent in August, according to seasonally adjusted data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

And another data point from the ABS showed that Australia’s population grew by 2.3 per cent to 27.1 million people in March 2024. Our population at 31 March 2024 was 27.1 million people, having grown by 615,300 people over the previous year. Net overseas migration drove 83 per cent of this population growth, while births and deaths, known as natural increase, made up the other 17 per cent.

I don’t thing the FED’s move based on inflation at 2.2% there has much relevance in the short term in Australia. Were it not for the massive flood of migrants and the job creation programmes funded by state and federal government, we would probably be in a recession, and rate cuts would already be in play. But the brutal truth is Government policy is keeping rates higher for longer.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Broken City!

Home builders are falling off the perch at an alarming rate with high rates of insolvency among construction firms, many of whom were homebuilders, to 3,000 in the past year. While many of these were small firms, we are still seeing a spate of larger firms going under. We are encountering more people in our 1:1 discussions with people coping with half built projects, no builder to take over the work, rising costs and blown out completion dates. No wonder people prefer to buying existing property.

The latest quarterly data on the value of construction work done also fell by 0.1% over Q2 to be 2.9% lower year-on-year.

More broadly, The Albanese Government is a complete mess on housing with the three bills that comprise its $32bn Housing for Australia plan blocked in the senate. These include The Help to Buy shares equity scheme. The Housing Future Fund equity investment vehicle to build just 13,000 houses per year. And the Build to Rent legislation which is designed to assist corporate to get tax breaks to build and then rent units, probably at higher than market rents. After all they are designed to make profits for those investing corporates and superfunds.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has threatened to use the Senate’s obstruction of Help to Buy as a trigger for a double dissolution election. Welcome to that time of the political cycle where we find ourselves burrowing into the election date speculation rabbit hole.

The real fix of course is to cut immigration significantly, as this would ease the rental shortage and lower rental inflation; which in turn would take pressure off the RBA to hold rates higher for longer enabling builders to clear the huge backlog of approvals and easing pressure on households. And on that front, Moody’s says that Australian mortgage delinquency rates, which increased over the June quarter, will continue to rise moderately over the rest of this year as high interest rates and sticky inflation put financial stress on households.

Standing back, the policy errors made by the current government are literally hitting home, and with the prospect of more political tricks on all sides of politics, the real impact on people will continue. They should be held to account for their mistakes.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.