Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The US Treasury is fast approaching the debt ceiling, which begs the question – what then? Will Government spending be crimped, will the ceiling be raised again, or will more unconventional strategies be deployed?
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Another outing for our Property Insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the latest numbers, trends and market movements.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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The true CPI experienced by many households is higher than the official figures, which by the way have been continually revised lower over time as the weighting methodology has changed.
So today we look at upcoming changes in the US CPI methodology, which is likely to put downward pressure on the CPI read, despite households on average now significantly worse off. A Numberwang if ever I saw one!
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Another look at recent price cuts on the property portals. this time in and around the Gold Coast, thanks to Cookie for the research. No surprise that some of the fastest falls across the country are in southeast QLD.
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More from Dale Webster of The Regional on the important issue of bank branch closures. She calls out the political inaction so far, including from our Treasurer and Finance Minister, who wins “porky of the year!”
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This Tuesday, 17 January 2023 at 8pm, Senator Gerard Rennick and our own John Adams will be going head-to-head in a live debate on YouTube which will be shown on the Walk the World YouTube channel.This debate, dubbed the “Ultimate Showdown”, will be a clash of economic perspectives.
However, any debate about economics and the Australian economy in 2023 cannot occur without discussing the tumultuous events of the COVID-19 pandemic and how this pandemic was managed both from the stand-point of economic and health policy. Given this context, it is worth remembering what Adams said at the start of the pandemic.
On 11 April 2020, John Adams published a 6,000-word essay title “Australia has been economically destroyed in 4 weeks”. On 20 and 28 April, Adams and I recorded a two-part series on Adams’ analysis.In part 1, Adams explained why he was against lockdowns -a very unpopular view at the time.
In part 2, Adams explained why he was against the economic stimulus policies announced by the Morrison Government and the RBA in March 2020.In this IOTP repost – we will replay part 2 of this discussion ahead of the Rennick and Adams debate. Almost 3 years on, it is worth considering how correct or incorrect Adams has been and compare this to Rennick’s position which was very different at the time. What Adams said in April 2020 will be a key feature of Tuesday night’s upcoming debate.
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
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In this week’s market update we as always start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia. Markets have started to look through the recession fears it seems, banking on the Fed slowing its rake hikes, and reversing later in 2023.
Yet the signals are still mixed, and earnings are clearly under pressure in many market sectors. But it does seem to me to be a question about seeing the wood for the trees. The bigger trend on markets still is pointing lower, despite the short term moves higher. We are not, I think out of the woods yet… remembering Central Banks over nearly 20 years have tried to engineer growth through massive stimulation and debt, and economies have been distorted beyond belief. As support is removed, asset values are still over done, and the cost of debt rises.
The Dow cut losses to close higher Friday, as investors bought the early-day dip in banks following a string of better-than-expected results, though concerns about a weaker economy linger. In the end the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their highest levels in a month on Friday, leaving the S&P 500 up 4.2% so far in 2023.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.7% and the Dow rose 2%. The Nasdaq increased 4.8% in its biggest weekly percentage gain since Nov. 11. The CBOE Volatility index -Wall Street’s fear gauge -closed at a one-year low. The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
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US CPI came out pretty much as expected, with headline rates falling, thanks to significant falls in gas (petrol) prices at the pumps, despite rises in food and shelter costs.
The markets lapped this up sending the indices mainly higher. along with gold, while bond yields and the US dollar slid.
However, Fed officials were out in force saying rates need to run higher for longer, so once again out of step with market expectations.
Next signal will be quarterly earnings from Friday. Still more volatility ahead.
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The ABS finally released their November 2022 New Lending stats today. Overall new loan commitments fell 3.7% in the month, and apart from refinancing, which hit a record, all other loan categories dropped to levels which in some cases were below pre-COVID levels.
First time buyers were hit hard.
More signals of a falling property market ahead.
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An interesting report came out last December from the House Standing Committee On Economics, relating to the RBA and their recent questioning of Governor Lowe.
The report was a bit of a squib in that whilst it recognised some of the issues relating to monetary policy and interest rates, they skirted round the big issues of what caused the inflation in the first place, and the role of extended credit in inflating prices.
We discuss the report and its shortcomings.
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