The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. On Monday US Equity markets rose and the dollar slid, driven by the idea that China may ease COVID restrictions, the prospects of a GOP rise in the mid-terms and hopes the U.S. economy is slowing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease its aggressive hiking of interest rates.
While a divided Congress is typically viewed as good for markets, the hope the U.S. economy is losing enough momentum for the Fed to slow the pace of monetary tightening pushed the dollar lower, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. “The market is really desperate for the Fed to pivot,” Manimbo said. “It will take anything it can get in terms of signs of a softening economy to hold out hope that a pivot might materialize sooner rather than later,” he said.
The relatively strong U.S. jobs report last week ensured the Fed will be in no rush to ease policy, though the pace of rate hikes may slow as the U.S. central banks keeps rates higher for longer, a view that pressured Treasury yields higher.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Ricochet is defined as a glancing rebound (as of a projectile off a flat surface). And in the markets, we are seeing that in spades at the moment.
So, in this week’s market review we will as normal start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. But I want to stress how volatile things are, in a situation where good news is bad news, expectations of a recession or slow down are growing, and Central Banks are still generally talking interest rates higher.
Plus, as I discussed yesterday, there is a growing divergence between the RBA’s approach compared with other Central Banks, to the point where we risk higher rates for longer in a slowingeconomy, which is exposed not only to exchange rate risks, but also a slowing China.
The Dow gained Friday as investors mulled a mixed jobs report and speculation about China easing Covid-19 lockdown measures, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the marketfrom snapping a three-week win streak following the Fed’s rate hike this week.In fact, global shares rose on Friday and the U.S. dollar fell, after jobs data came in stronger than expected but also hinted at some slack in the tight American labor market,triggering again that hope that the Federal Reserve might ease up on monetary tightening –despite what was said just a day earlier about higher rates.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy generated 261,000 jobs in October. That was higher than an estimate of 200,000expected but it also showed unemployment rising to 3.7% from 3.5% in September while wage inflation dropped to 4.7% from 5% in the prior month.Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% after rising 0.3% in September, but the rise in wages slowed to 4.7% year-on-year in October after advancing 5.0% in September.The participation rate eased back a little to 62.2%.The stronger jobs report comes just ahead of fresh inflation data next week, which if continues to show inflation running hot would lift the prospect of another 75 basis point hike next month.
In Australia. Afterpay-owner Block led the Australian sharemarket higher on Friday after reporting a stronger-than-expected third quarter profit, causing its share price to leap 10.9 per cent to $97.03.
The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5 per cent, or 34.6 points, to 6892.5 on Friday, lifting its weekly gain to 1.6 per cent. The broader All Ordinaries index added 0.6 per cent to 7089.3 on Friday.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I discuss the fallout from the RBA rate hikes with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar.
We look at strategies to alleviate the pain of higher rates, the risks within some approaches and the broader issues of negative equity and mortgage prisoners.
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
The RBA released their latest Statement On Monetary Policy, which contained a higher forecast inflation rate, and a lower growth forecast, out beyond 2024. Their revisions to growth are down again, while rates would have to be higher for longer.
Compared with other Central Banks, the RBA is being too timid which will mean more pressure on households and businesses for longer.
The Bank of England raised interest rates by the most since 1989 on Thursday but warned investors that the risk of Britain’s longest recession in at least a century means borrowing costs are likely to rise less than they expect.
The BoE increased Bank Rate to 3% from 2.25% and warned that the British economy might not grow for another two years – the longest slump in records dating back to the 1920s – if rates were to go up by as much as markets have recently bet. The pound tumbled after the decision, while London-listed stocks fell and UK bonds came under pressure.
“We can’t make promises about future interest rates but based on where we stand today, we think Bank Rate will have to go up by less than currently priced in financial markets,” Governor Andrew Bailey said, in an unusually blunt message.
The BoE said it now expects inflation will hit a 40-year high of around 11% during the current quarter, more than five times its 2% target. But it also thinks the economy has entered a recession that could mean it contracts in both 2023 and 2024 and shrinks by 2.9% in total.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants
