Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another rant from our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at some of the property auctions in Western Sydney, including some where there was a real crowd, and others where there were no bids.
We also look at the latest from China, the listings down the east coast and another tip for prospective buyers.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another outing thanks to Cookie, as we look at property price reductions around Wollongong from the property portals and add in data from our Core Model on stress and other household factors, and scenarios.
Net conclusion is prices are sliding, and quite fast!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
AUSTRALIA’S banking regulator APRA is picking and choosing which banks it is allowing to get away with breaking the law by misreporting whether their sites offer cash service provided by a teller according to an important article in The Regional. Kudos once again to Dale Webster for highlighting this important issue.
Errors in hundreds of minor and foreign bank sites included in the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s points of presence data for years, even decades, have been corrected over the past 17 months after being exposed by The Regional in May 2021.
https://www.theregional.com.au/post/regulator-s-bank-data-inconsistencies-not-adding-up
https://www.theregional.com.au/post/apra-s-clean-up-of-bank-data-errors-leaves-statistics-in-chaos
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
On Friday there was a robust, broad-based rally across Wall Street as markets looked over more encouraging economic data and a sunnier earnings outlook. This despite the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. The FOMC decision is widely expecting a unanimous vote for at least one last major rate increase, though with the Fed’s preferred price measure still showing inflation is running hot, that might make it harder for them to set up a possible downshift in its rate-hike pace for the December meeting.
That said, despite data on Thursday showed a strong rebound in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, demonstrating resilience in the world’s largest economy and oil consumer and an acceleration with inflation, strong consumer spending data, and a robust labor market, much of Wall Street is growing confident that the Fed will pause tightening once they take the funds rate to 4.50-4.75% next quarter to the point where Financial markets have now priced in an 84.5% likelihood of a fifth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed’s Nov. 1-2 policy meeting, and a 51.4% chance the central bank will decelerate to 50 basis points in December.
In addition to the FOMC decision, traders will also closely monitor the nonfarm payroll report. The strong labor market is still expected to show job growth with 200,000 jobs created in October, down from the 263,000 created in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher and wage gains are expected to slow.
So all major U.S. indexes ended the session up about 2.5% or more, with the S&P and the NASDAQ notching their second straight weekly gains. The blue-chip Dow posted its fourth consecutive Friday-to-Friday advance and its biggest weekly percentage gain since May. As a result, the bulls were back, even if largely driven by hopium (remembering the bulk of economists are still seeing a US recession likely next year!)
“This has been one of the best months (so far) in the history of the Dow, suggesting the bear market likely ended,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “Big monthly moves historically happen at the end of bear markets.” “This is the second Friday in a row we’ve seen aggressive buying suggesting investors are growing more comfortable holding over the weekend,” Detrick added.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The news continues to confuse, as Wall Street contended with another volatile session. Investors mulled the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate hikes while assessing mixed economic data and a slew of earnings reports, whilst the ECB doubled official deposit rate, and Credit Suisse revealed their plans to revamp their business.
At the end of the day, the Dow closed higher on Thursday, as a rally in Caterpillar and Boeing cushioned the rout in tech after META delivered disappointing quarterly results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61%, the NASDAQ was down 1.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.55%. The S&P 500 closed lower, after swinging between gains and losses for most of the session.
The big news was Meta Platforms which fell nearly 25% after reporting third-quarter results that missed on the bottom line and were an “absolute train wreck,” according to Wedbush.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. We look at the latest charts, and discuss where things are going.
You can see the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-28th-october-2022
Tarric’s upcoming event is here: https://cloud.go.pepperstone.com/pepp-talks-melb-nov-2022
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Bank of Canada lifted the cash rate by less than expected – and people are now redefining “a pivot”. But what does this mean for inflation and future rates, and broader economies. We also look at the market movements.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A quick summary of the budget from last night, with a focus on the assumptions and overall projections ahead. All up, it is an improvement from the previous budget, but still contains some pretty heroic assumptions. Includes some content from The Conversation.
Sir Humphrey would be proud!
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The latest Australian inflation figures from the ABS came in hot, suggesting more rate rises from the RBA.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% this quarter. Over the twelve months to the September 2022 quarter, the CPI rose 7.3%. The most significant price rises were New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers (+3.7%), Gas and other household fuels (+10.9%) and Furniture (+6.6%).
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
News flash: Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg has given notice of a motion for a major inquiry into ASIC, which will be voted on tomorrow (Thursday). Labor currently opposes the inquiry, and the Greens haven’t taken a position yet.
Urgent: Call – today – the ALP and Greens Senators on the Economics References Committee to tell them they must support an inquiry. See their contact details below.
Whatever Senator Bragg’s motives, a major inquiry into ASIC is VERY important, as this will be the first specific, detailed, inquiry into ASIC since the 2018 Banking Royal Commission laid bare its many failures. And the Adams Report into ASIC’s very low rate of investigations – just 0.74% of all complaints – shows that it’s performance hasn’t improved.
An example of ASIC’s failure is Sterling First, which has left the lives of the elderly tenants ruined.
Below is the text of Senator Bragg’s motion:
Chair of the Economics References Committee (Senator Bragg): To move—
That the following matter be referred to the Economics References Committee for inquiry and report by the last sitting day in June 2024: (This will be a long, detailed inquiry.)
The capacity and capability of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to undertake proportionate investigation and enforcement action arising from reports of alleged misconduct, with particular reference to:
(a) the potential for dispute resolution and compensation schemes to distort efficient market outcomes and regulatory action;
(b) the balance in policy settings that deliver an efficient market but also effectively deter poor behaviour;
(c) whether ASIC is meeting the expectations of government, business and the community with respect to regulatory action and enforcement;
(d) the range and use of various regulatory tools and their effectiveness in contributing to good market outcomes;
(e) the offences from which penalties can be considered and the nature of liability in these offences;
(f) the resourcing allocated to ensure investigations and enforcement action progresses in a timely manner;
(g) opportunities to reduce duplicative regulation; and
(h) any other related matters.
The Senators to call are:
Senator Nick McKim Greens:
02 6277 3601 senator.mckim@aph.gov.au
Senator David Shoebridge Greens:
02 6277 3169 senator.shoebridge@aph.gov.au
Senator Jess Walsh ALP:
02 6277 3744 senator.walsh@aph.gov.au
Senator Jana Stewart ALP:
02 6277 3004 senator.stewart@aph.gov.au