Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

The Shadow Of Asbestos Still Haunts!

This week is Asbestos Awareness Week in Australia. Asbestos Awareness Week provides an important reminder as we head into end of year period when people may be looking to undertake renovation or DIY work on older properties and the need to be vigilant in managing safety on site.

https://www.asbestossafety.gov.au/national-asbestos-awareness-week-2024

If you’re working on homes built before 1990, you need to assume asbestos could be present in elements such as cladding, eave sheets, electrical switchboards, internal linings and even in pipework, roofing and floor underlays.

It is vital to engage a licensed assessor for inspection and testing, and if asbestos is found, ensure it’s removed by a licensed professional.

Check out out YouTube Channel where we feature Gill’s research into the whole asbestos scandal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cocjr_xgqDI&list=PLBY81JyA5KYW_5nJ_rkFMjLpR5Be_ctHj

4,000 people are dying each and every year across Australia from exposure to Asbestos, a process which can take many years from initial exposure, as I know from personal experience, as my wife Gill died from exposure.

Home

We launched Asbestos Awareness Australia, a charity to raise awareness and to campaign for reform. Unfortunately politicians do not want to touch this live rail, despite one in three homes containing asbestos, the fact we continue to import board containing Asbestos and the rising number of deaths from exposure among women.

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Kiwis See Another Rate Cut As The RBNZ Takes A Different Path!

The New Zealand Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Official Cash Rate to 4.25% from 4.75%.

The bank’s updated projections are consistent with another 50-point reduction at its next decision on Feb. 19, Governor Adrian Orr told reporters at a press conference. “But it’s also conditional on economic projections panning out,” he said.

“Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025, as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending,” the bank said. “Employment growth is expected to remain weak until mid-2025 and, for some, financial stress will take time to ease.”

This is a very different path compared with the RBA’s 4.35% well into 2025.

Sometimes a short sharp shock is better!

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The Real Story About Under 16!

The Under 16 Ban on Account access to Social Media has been steamrollered through the lower house, and will be guillotined through the Senate without debate.

Questions of substance are being thrown off the table in an unseemly mess, being supported by both major parties. Why? Because under the hood this is actually the last battle between old media and new media, and both major parties must support the hidden hand.

As a result the door is flung open for greater digital control, in line with top-down directives.

Parents, children and ordinary Australians are caught in the cross-fire.

Kudos to small band of Senators who have stood against the bill. This will not end well for major parties.

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Lets Put Another Numberwang On The Barbie!

The latest monthly CPI data from the ABS showed headline inflation going sideways and underlying inflation rising, despite the massive Government support to households across electricity and rents.

Nothing here to signal rate cuts in the short term, and the RBA will continue to look through to the underlying rate of 3.5% which is up from last month and higher than their target.

Of course, politically speaking we will hear loads about Government support, and bearing down on inflation, despite the fact that many of the actions of Government are driving inflation higher.

Its another classic case of numberwanging, because the real costs for people are so much higher.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Investing: Nightmare Or Great Deal?

This is an edited version of a live discussion about the conundrum of property investing. Some are selling as quickly as they can, others are piling in. We look at the latest data to figure out what is going on. The key is a realistic assessment of net investment yield, which varies across locations and property types.

You can ask a question live!

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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another week and what a week its been, with the complete failure of the Misinformation and Disinformation Bill (yeh!). Pity about the U16 Bill!

Property related Bills will be passed though, underscoring the narrowing base of the Australian economy, even as more small businesses go out of business.

In this show Edwin, our property insider looks at the latest in listings, and sales with dramatic differences across locations. We also discuss the price of property relative to Bitcoin and Gold, and also consider whats ahead.

Edwin’s tip of the week in a warning relating to car insurance.

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The Misinformation Bill Is Dead [Again]!

The Albanese government has dumped its controversial mis- and disinformation bill, conceding there is “no pathway” to getting the proposal passed through the Senate.

The communications minister, Michelle Rowland, insisted misinformation and disinformation remained a grave concern for democracy, national security and online safety, but said the government would not proceed with the proposal. It is the second time Labor has pulled the bill, after an initial version also failed to gain support and raised concerns about freedom of speech online.

“Based on public statements and engagements with senators, it is clear that there is no pathway to legislate this proposal through the Senate,” Rowland said on Sunday.

As I discussed in previous shows, the mis- and disinformation bill would have put legal obligations on social media platforms to address false, misleading or deceptive content, or content reasonably likely to cause serious harm, as well as equip the Australian Communications and Media Authority to regulate such content. However it was strongly opposed by a wide range of bodies including human rights organisations, church groups and libertarian groups, as well as many of the non-government members of parliament.
A first version of the legislation was redrafted in a bid to win wider support, but the second attempt also failed to garner parliamentary backing or assuage wider concerns from critics. The Coalition has long pledged to oppose the bill, while all other members of the Senate crossbench had said in recent days they would either vote it down or were not yet sufficiently convinced to vote for it.

The Australian Human Rights Commission said back in October that “although there have been improvements to the bill, freedom of expression is not sufficiently protected”.

That leaves the age of under 16 ban on access to social media still in play, and it looks like this legislation will pass this week despite major flaws in the bill, and concerns it could be a back door to wider social media access controls. As I discussed recently this bill is also deeply flawed, but Labour is after a win, any win politically speaking before the election.

The short time-frame and rushed consideration of the Bill means it is likely to be of poor quality. Given the importance of the issues contained in the legislation, a more detailed and longer path is required to ensure the best approach possible is developed.

Given the proximity of the next election is appears that political considerations are driving the time-frames, and for the reasons outlined above, the Bill in its current guise should not be passed into law.

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Markets Reach For The Stars Again, Even As The Ground Shifts Under Foot!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in New Zealand and Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. This is data heavy, so strap in.

Global stocks registered a strong weekly gain on Friday while U.S. Treasury yields slipped as markets eyed President-elect Donald Trump’s likely policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, even as bitcoin traded near the $100,000 threshold as bets that Trump’s administration will take a lighter-touch approach to regulation as chairman Gary Gensler plans to step down on January 20, the day Trump is inaugurated.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.33% to 854.13 and gained about 1.4% for the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index ended the week 1% higher, snapping four straight weeks of losses.

All three Wall Street indexes finished higher and each notched a weekly gain. Industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and consumer staples drove gains while communication services, utilities and technology equities were the biggest losers.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, ended down 3.2% after the artificial intelligence chipmaker reported strong quarterly results but issued lacklustre sales forecasts having hit a prior record high.

European equity markets closed higher on Friday, despite investors digesting weak economic data as well as the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data released earlier Friday vividly illustrated the economic woes that Europe is currently suffering, pointing to further interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Germany’s DAX rose 1% and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4%, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.6%. The pan-European STOXX 600 jumped 1.2%, its best daily performance in nearly two months.

Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, buoyed by strength in chipmaking and cyclical stocks, which helped markets weather heightened tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war.

A rally in oil prices on fears of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict pushed energy stocks higher, sending the Australian sharemarket to a fresh closing high on Friday. Australia’s ASX 200 benefited from a shift into economically sensitive sectors despite Australian PMI data showing a contraction in both manufacturing and services activity.

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.9 per cent to 8393.8 at the closing bell, resetting Tuesday’s record of 8374. The index climbed 1.3 per cent this week. The All Ords rose 0.8 per cent.

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Homeless; Renters Punished And Perth Is Worse Than Sydney!

Last week I published a show titled “The rental stress pips are squeaking” where I did a deep dive into rising rental stress across the country, to underscore the crisis we have in the rental sector. I called it the hidden crisis, because we get massive coverage of mortgage stress in the mainstream, media but rental stress not so much.

To underscore the crisis, new modelling from Impact Economics and Policy, a group of expert economists and policy specialists, estimates that back in 2022, as many as 3.2 million people were at risk of homelessness across the country, where one negative shock could result in them losing their home. This represents a 63% increase between 2016 and 2022 in the number of Australians at risk of homelessness.

A recent survey showed that 39% of Specialist Homelessness Services had to close their doors to people seeking help because they were unable to cope. With the homelessness services unable to cope despite the increase in people needing help, not enough are being assisted, and many are not even seeking help because they know they won’t get through.

Now, SGS Economics and Planning has release the tenth edition of the Rental Affordability Index (RAI) today, which shows that since 2015, rental affordability has declined in most cities, limiting where people can live and work and reshaping communities nationwide. Once affordable areas like South West Sydney and South East Melbourne are now increasingly out of reach for average rental households. Their analysis based on a different approach aligns with what I have been reporting.

The report lands as the Albanese government struggles to get support to pass two key housing bills, dismissing a last minute offer from the Greens as more about politics than progress.

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