Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.
First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).
Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.
Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.
But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.
Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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